ANALYSIS — In the shadow of the presidential race sit two competitive fights for the Senate and the House, and the latest race rating changes give Republicans a more straightforward path to sweeping control of both chambers.
The biggest change is in Montana, where Inside Elections changed the rating of Democratic Sen. Jon Tester’s reelection race from Toss-up to Tilt Republican, in favor of Tim Sheehy. Winning Montana, along with a likely victory in West Virginia, would give Republicans the net gain of two seats they need for a Senate majority, no matter what happens in the presidential race.
Whenever a high-profile incumbent like Tester is pushed into a takeover column, it can cause confusion about the ratings categories. Party strategists and allies of the incumbent declare that the race is a toss-up because Tester can still win. But a shift from Toss-up to Tilt doesn’t dismiss a Tester victory; it just acknowledges that he is the underdog in the race. The senator trails Sheehy and is running from behind with seven weeks to go.
Tester is no stranger to close races after winning with 49 percent, 49 percent and 50 percent, respectively, in his three previous elections. But, once again, he faces serious pressure from the top of the ticket, with former President Donald Trump likely to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in Montana by 12 to 15 points in the presidential race. Sheehy and the Republicans also aren’t letting Democrats have a serious spending advantage on television.
Inside Elections continues to project that Republicans will gain one to three Senate seats. In order for Democrats to maintain control without ousting any Republican senators whose races have much safer ratings, they need Tester to either make up a few points or baffle the pollsters like GOP Sen. Susan Collins did in Maine in 2020. They would also need Harris to win the White House so a Vice President Tim Walz could break tie votes. But the Tester victory will be a challenge.
In the House, nine rating changes don’t change the overall dynamic in the fight for the majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats, but Republicans continue to have a narrow advantage to keep control.
The GOP needs to win just two of the 13 Toss-up races, while Democrats need to win 12 of 13, if the other races end as expected. The current Inside Elections projection continues to range from Democrats picking up five seats to Republicans picking up five. Overall, there are 70 House races rated as competitive by Inside Elections.
Republicans’ chances have improved in three districts, including races against two of Democrats’ strongest and most vulnerable incumbents: Mary Peltola’s race in Alaska’s at-large district shifts from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up, while Jared Golden’s race in Maine’s 2nd shifts from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic. Texas’ 15th, represented by Republican Monica De La Cruz, shifts from Lean Republican to Likely Republican.
Democrats’ chances improved in six races, including Iowa’s 1st (GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican; New Hampshire’s 1st (Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic; Pennsylvania’s 10th (GOP Rep. Scott Perry) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican; and Wisconsin’s 3rd (Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden) from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. New Hampshire’s 2nd (Democrat Ann McLane Kuster’s open seat) shifted off the House battlefield from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic, while Arizona’s 2nd (represented by Republican Eli Crane) comes onto the battlefield from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
With competitive fights for the White House, Senate and House, that means a split decision is possible in November. But if both parties have at least one big victory, then they’ll each declare a mandate and decline to address deeper party problems that could inhibit future growth.
Moved toward Republicans
- Alaska at-large (Mary Peltola, D) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up
- Maine’s 2nd (Jared Golden, D) from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic
- Texas’ 15th (Monica De La Cruz, R) from Lean Republican to Likely Republican
Moved toward Democrats
- Arizona’s 2nd (Eli Crane, R) from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
- Iowa’s 1st (Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- New Hampshire’s 1st (Chris Pappas, D) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
- New Hampshire’s 2nd (open; Ann McLane Kuster, D) from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
- Pennsylvania’s 10th (Scott Perry, R) from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
- Wisconsin’s 3rd (Derrick Van Orden, R) from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Nathan L. Gonzales is an elections analyst with CQ Roll Call.
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