The latest round of rating changes are a mixed bag for incumbents as a handful of current members are seeing their reelection prospects improving while others are in increasingly difficult fights. Overall, the battle for Congress remains competitive in the shadow of the presidential race. And one senator’s race for governor has hit a bump in the road.
Senate
Republicans are well-positioned to win the Senate. A win in West Virginia in addition to former President Donald Trump winning the White House is enough for GOP control. But victories in West Virginia and Montana, where Republican Tim Sheehy has an advantage over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, is enough for a GOP majority and makes the presidential outcome less relevant to control of the chamber.
Democratic chances have improved in a handful of lower-tier takeover opportunities including Florida, Nebraska and Texas. But those races aren’t competitive enough yet to balance out Democratic vulnerabilities in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona, in addition to West Virginia and Montana.
Inside Elections shifted Florida from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. GOP Sen. Rick Scott has the advantage over former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but the Sunshine State is looking more competitive than the Republican surge in 2022 that included big reelection victories by Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio. Democrats are making a small investment in the race so far, but Scott is still likely to exercise his financial advantage via his personal funds.
In one of the most interesting races of the cycle, Nebraska shifted from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. Both parties agree that independent candidate Dan Osborn is running close to GOP Sen. Deb Fischer, but Democrats and Republicans disagree on the trajectory of the race.
Democrats, who declined to nominate a candidate, believe Osborn has the right profile as a labor leader and outsider to deliver the anti-establishment message against Fischer. While Republicans believe Trump’s endorsement of Fischer and ads painting Osborn as a Democrat in independent’s clothing will right the ship. These efforts to back independent candidates usually fail, but the race is worth watching.
In Texas, Republicans and Democrats disagree on the fundamentals of the race. Democrats see Rep. Colin Allred running even with GOP Sen. Ted Cruz while Republicans believe the senator has a comfortable advantage.
Vice President Kamala Harris probably needs to lose Texas by 5 points or less (Trump won by 5.6 in 2020) in order to decrease the number of split-ticket voters Allred needs to win. Allred is better funded than Mucarsel-Powell in Florida and the presidential race might end up being closer in Texas, so Inside Elections changed the rating from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
It’s not all great news for Democrats, as some of their incumbents are in increasingly difficult races. It looks like Republican car dealer Bernie Moreno is closing the gap with Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Republican Eric Hovde is within a few points of Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin.
The Badger State battle hasn’t attracted the same level of outside spending compared to Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, but Hovde’s willingness to spend his own money has kept him in the race. Wisconsin is structurally one of the most evenly divided states in the country and the races look tight up and down the ballot. The rating shifted from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic, one step away from Toss-up.
House
Three House incumbents saw their reelection prospects downgraded in this most recent round of rating changes.
Rep. Jared Golden is regarded as one of Democrats’ strongest incumbents but he faces a difficult fight in Maine’s 2nd District, where Trump will outpace Harris. That race shifted from Tilt Democratic to Toss-Up.
Two Iowa Republicans, Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st District and Zach Nunn in the 3rd, also saw their races shift into Toss-Up from Tilt Republican. Miller-Meeks won the closest race in the country in 2020 and defeated Democrat Christina Bohannan by nearly 7 points in 2022 but the two candidates are running even in a rematch this year. Nunn, meanwhile, is recovering from a barrage of attacks from Democrats on his abortion record.
Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico’s 2nd District has been in the Toss-up category for virtually the entire cycle. But he’s maintained a narrow but consistent edge over former GOP Rep. Yvette Herrell. Time will tell whether a boost in Republican spending will change the dynamic, but for now the rating shifted from Toss-Up to Tilt Democratic.
Three Democratic incumbents look to be in particularly strong positions after being closer to the center of the House battlefield. Rep. Eric Sorensen of Illinois’ 17th, Angie Craig of Minnesota’s 2nd, and Pat Ryan of New York’s 18th all saw their races shift from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
Overall, the path is slightly easier for Republicans to maintain their majority. The GOP needs to win just four of the 15 races rated as Toss-Up by Inside Elections while Democrats need to win 12 to get to 218.
Governor
GOP Sen. Mike Braun has hit a bump on his road to the governorship in Indiana. While he ran successfully as a businessman and political outsider in 2018 in Senate bid, Braun has been criticized as a Republican-in-name-only in his run for governor, including by his potential lieutenant governor, Republican Micah Beckwith.
With the infighting in the Republican Party, Braun’s polling numbers are softer than the typical Republican and there’s a familiar third-party candidate, giving Democrats a rare moment of optimism in the Hoosier State.
A survey for the Democratic Governors Association, conducted Sept. 19-22 and reported by Inside Elections, showed Braun leading Democratic nominee (and former Republican) Jennifer McCormick 44-41 percent, and Libertarian Donald Rainwater at 8 percent. Republicans admit the race is tighter than a typical Indiana contest but believe Trump’s strong showing at the top of the ticket will pull up the rest of the ticket.
Rainwater received 12 percent in the 2020 gubernatorial race, so he shouldn’t be dismissed. But McCormick would likely need to get to 45 percent in order to win, and that looks like quite a lift for any Democrat in Indiana right now. But there’s enough uncertainty to shift the rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Senate list
Moved toward Republicans:
Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin, D) from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic
Moved toward Democrats:
Florida (Rick Scott, R) from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Nebraska (Deb Fischer, R) from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Texas (Ted Cruz, R) from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
House List
Moved toward Republicans:
Maine’s 2nd (Jared Golden, D) from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up
Moved toward Democrats
Illinois’ 17th (Eric Sorensen, D) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Mariannette Miller-Meeks, R) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Iowa’s 3rd (Zach Nunn, R) from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Minnesota’s 2nd (Angie Craig, DFL) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
New Mexico’s 2nd (Gabe Vasquez, D) from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New York’s 18th (Pat Ryan, D) from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Governor
Moved toward Democrats
Indiana (Open; Eric Holcomb, R) from Solid Republican to Likely Republican
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