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AAP
AAP
Business
Jacob Shteyman

Rate hopes to lift business, consumer spirits

Consumers are beginning to spend with more confidence, the latest figures are expected to show. (Dan Himbrechts/AAP PHOTOS)

Rising hopes of a Reserve Bank interest rate cut are expected to be reflected in growing confidence among businesses and consumers.

NAB will release its January survey of business conditions on Tuesday, the same day as Westpac and the Melbourne Institute's February consumer confidence index is unveiled.

NAB's business survey for the December quarter, released last Thursday, showed a small lift in confidence, though it remains in negative territory.

"However, expected business conditions in the next 12 months and capex plans in the next 12 months both improved - possibly boosted by the prospect of rate cuts, recovering consumer demand and easing costs growth over 2025," said the bank's chief economist Alan Oster.

Since then, expectations the RBA would begin cutting rates at its February meeting have only increased further, given the softer-than-expected CPI figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics at the end of January.

As the rates outlook improves, increased investor appetite for property could show up in lending figures released by the bureau on Wednesday.

While CommSec chief economist Ryan Felsman predicts a flat outcome for owner-occupier home loans for the December quarter, he's tipping a three per cent lift for investors.

Also on Wednesday, US time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release CPI figures for January.

ANZ economists Tom Kenny and Shwetha Sunilkumar expect the US core consumer price index to have risen 0.24 per cent for the month, with California's wildfires posing an upside risk to inflation in the short term, mainly through higher rents and used car prices.

After cutting rates by 100 basis points since the middle of 2024, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has said he is in no rush to ease monetary policy further as long as the economy remains strong and inflation shows no sign of returning to two per cent.

Domestically, earnings seasons continues with Commonwealth Bank, JB Hi-Fi and Macquarie Group amongst companies reporting half-yearly results.

The local share market finished slightly lower on Friday, with the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index dipping 20.9 points, or 0.24 per cent to 8,511.4 while the broader All Ordinaries lost 4.8 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 8,780.3.

All three US stock indexes also closed lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 444.23 points, or 0.99 per cent, to 44,303.40, the S&P 500 lost 57.58 points, or 0.95 per cent, to 6,025.99 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 268.59 points, or 1.36 per cent, to 19,523.40.

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