Regardless of Manchester United's drop-off in recent weeks, this season has been one of great promise. A first trophy since 2017 — with two more within reach — and a top-four finish still very much in their hands are testament to the work Erik ten Hag and his players have carried out over the last year.
And yet, United's run of four wins in their last 10 Premier League games, starting with the 1-1 draw away to Crystal Palace in January when Michael Olise's late free-kick felt like a genuine title blow, has brought into focus the shortcomings of this squad.
United have an excellent first-choice XI. Fitness-permitting, nine of the players in it pick themselves, with debates to be had at right-back and on the right-wing only. For the avoidance of doubt, those guaranteed starters are: David de Gea, Raphael Varane, Lisandro Martinez, Luke Shaw, Casemiro, Christian Eriksen, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial.
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Therein, though, lies the problem. When injuries or suspensions strike, most of United's deputies just don't cut the mustard.
Martial's chronic unavailability due to injuries is infuriating but he is objectively a better footballer than Wout Weghorst; Tyrell Malacia is leagues below Luke Shaw at left-back; Victor Lindelof and Harry Maguire are significant downgrades on Varane and Martinez; nobody holds a candle to Casemiro at the base of midfield; and United do not have a ball-playing midfielder aside from the crocked Eriksen.
Martial has not completed 90 minutes in the Premier League in 27 months, Eriksen has been injured since January, and by the time Casemiro's current ban ends, he will have missed seven of United's last 10 league games through suspension. Thus, Ten Hag has been forced to rely on stand-ins who bring about a substantial downgrade in on-field quality, and United's league form has suffered as a result.
Arsenal and Manchester City have each collected 14 points more than United since January's draw at Selhurst Park. That night saw Casemiro pick up his first suspension of the season for a totting-up of yellow cards, while 10 days later Eriksen sustained the ankle injury that has kept him out for the last nine weeks.
United fans might not take kindly to City being held up as an example but there is no denying that they have serious strength in depth. Bernardo Silva was not ready to start against Liverpool on Saturday so Ilkay Gundogan got the nod, while Julian Alvarez deputised for Erling Haaland up front and the Norwegian celebrated Alvarez's equaliser wildly from his hospitality box inside the Etihad.
Ten Hag has an impressive hit rate in the transfer market and this summer will be about filling in the gaps in his squad. The manager will need to decide whether he wants a new goalkeeper, but in terms of his outfield defence, Varane, Martinez and Shaw should make up three-quarters of the back four. United want to sign a new midfielder this summer and that would allow for rotation between Casemiro, Fernandes and, more frequently, Eriksen.
In attack, it feels like the only players that are guaranteed to be at the club come September are Rashford, Antony and Alejandro Garnacho. Jadon Sancho probably will be, and Martial might be, but it is because of their failures to make significant impacts this season that there is not more certainty around their futures.
United have the foundations for a very good team, and Ten Hag will soon have the opportunity to build on them again.
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