There will be plenty of money spent on the 2023 free-agency class. Hitting the open market this winter is a loaded crop of shortstops, three veteran aces with a combined seven Cy Young awards (and counting) and some guy who just hit 62 home runs and can play center field.
Those are just a few of the standouts in our top 50 free agents for this year, and there will surely be more outside of that core group to make a massive impact on next season and beyond. In making this list, we tried to put ourselves in the shoes of baseball’s prominent decision-makers, taking into account past performance, age, health and a myriad of other factors that get thrown into the stew, so to speak, in the often fruitless guessing game of trying to predict the future. We’ve also tried (most likely in vain) to predict the landing spot of each player.
A few notes: Each player’s listed age reflects how old he will be during the 2023 season, and we’re using FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement. This page will be updated throughout the offseason as players sign with teams.
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
1. Aaron Judge, RF
Age: 31 | Former Team: Yankees | Prediction: Yankees
Did you expect anybody else? Judge’s bet on himself is about to pay out massively, whether he re-signs with the Yankees or lands elsewhere. The gap between Judge and every other hitter in the league is massive, with the Yankees slugger posting the highest wRC+ (207) of anybody in the past 50 years not named Barry Bonds. Though he spent more time in center field in ’22, Judge will likely call right field his home long term—but that won’t stop record-breaking offers coming in following one of the best seasons ever.
2. Trea Turner, SS
Age: 30 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Cubs
Take it from Jon Hamm—Turner is a superstar. Deciding who’s the best of the bunch from this year’s A-list shortstops is a tall task, but Turner ekes out the field by a nose. After battling various injuries through his first few years in the league, Turner has been durable, missing just 57 games over the past five seasons. No shortstop has posted a higher fWAR than Turner (20.0) since 2019, and he ranks in the top three in wRC+ (133), on-base percentage (.361), slugging percentage (.509) and stolen bases (106).
3. Carlos Correa, SS
Age: 28 | Former Team: Twins | Prediction: Orioles
Correa is back on the market after one year and $35.1 million earned in Minnesota. He was once again an all-around force at the plate and received plaudits from Twins teammates for his leadership skills amid the club’s bounce back to playoff contention (or its attempt at such, even if it ultimately collapsed in September). He’s at No. 3 after topping our list last year because of a fairly drastic drop-off on defense—one that could indicate his eventual move to third base will come sooner than expected and sap some of his value.
4. Dansby Swanson, SS
Age: 29 | Former Team: Braves | Prediction: Dodgers
Swanson morphed into MLB’s best defensive shortstop this year to more than double his career-high WAR total and earn his first All-Star nod. But his bat is still a cut or two below the shortstops above him (in large part due to his penchant for strikeouts), which will likely cause him to get a slightly smaller contract in terms of average annual value.
5. Xander Bogaerts, SS
Age: 30 | Former Team: Red Sox | Prediction: Braves
The oldest of the Big Four shortstops, Bogaerts has been a model of durable consistency across his mid to late 20s. He’s missed only 67 games over the past five seasons, never posting a wRC+ worse than 129. Depending on your preferred flavor of defensive analytics, Bogaerts is either above average or just fine at one of the game’s most demanding positions, so he should be able to stick there for the foreseeable future. There is some slight concern with his diminishing power numbers, which could translate into Bogaerts becoming merely a good hitter rather than one of the five best at his position.
6. Jacob deGrom, SP
Age: 35 | Former Team: Mets | Prediction: Mets
When he’s on the mound, he’s indisputably one of the best pitchers on the planet. But he’s made only 26 starts over the last two seasons, and he was great but not quite as great this season as he was in an abbreviated ‘21. Still, even though he’ll turn 35 in June, expect deGrom to command a contract in the realm of the three-year, $130 million deal that Max Scherzer got from the Mets a year ago.
7. Carlos Rodón, SP
Age: 30 | Former Team: Giants | Prediction: Cardinals
Rodón reenters free agency for the second straight year as an All-Star and top-five Cy Young vote recipient—and this time, he comes without the late-season elbow soreness that limited his price tag last winter (though that led him to bet on himself, which worked). He was MLB’s second-most valuable pitcher this year by fWAR (6.2) after leading the majors with 12 strikeouts per 9 IP and a 2.25 FIP. Expect the former No. 1 pick to draw the largest contract of any free-agent pitcher this year, especially given the injury risks associated with his older peers.
8. Willson Contreras, C
Age: 31 | Former Team: Cubs | Prediction: Guardians
Contreras has been among MLB’s best hitting catchers since he entered the league, leading his position with a 116 wRC+ among the 24 backstops (active or otherwise) with at least 1,500 plate appearances since his rookie year in 2016. In fact, he hasn’t ranked as a below-average hitter by wRC+ in any of his seven seasons. It’s unclear how long his next team would want him to stick behind the plate, though, as his strong control of the run game is more than negated by his below-average pitch framing. Even so, he’s far and away the best catcher available, and his bat is good enough to play as a DH as he ages into his 30s.
9. Justin Verlander, SP
Age: 40 | Former Team: Astros | Prediction: Astros
Verlander is the heavy favorite to win his third Cy Young Award after leading the majors in ERA (1.75) and WHIP (0.83). He’ll probably seek to surpass Max Scherzer’s record annual average value of $43.3 million on a short-term deal—and it’d be a surprise if that happens anywhere else besides Houston after finally notching his first World Series win (the Astros’ second title during his tenure there).
Get SI’s Houston Astros World Series Commemorative Issue here.
10. Brandon Nimmo, CF
Age: 30 | Former Team: Mets | Prediction: Giants
There aren’t many viable options for starting-caliber center fielders in this free-agency class, which means the underrated Nimmo should be in high demand. Since 2018, Nimmo’s wRC+ (138) and on-base percentage (.388) rank second among all center fielders, trailing only some guy named Mike Trout. He’s above average defensively, but availability is really the biggest question mark: Nimmo was healthy all season in ’22, marking the first time since ’18 that he played in more than 100 games.
11. Clayton Kershaw, SP
Age: 35 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Dodgers
In terms of his rate statistics, Kershaw really hasn’t dropped off much from his peak. Since his age-30 season in 2018, only three pitchers with at least 500 innings (Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer) can best his 2.83 ERA. But due to various injuries, he’s now providing roughly half the innings he did when he was routinely in Cy Young contention in the early ’10s. That being said, 120 innings of an elite pitcher is still quite valuable. It seems like he’ll keep pitching for the Dodgers on one-year contracts as long as he wants to stay in the majors … or until he’s lured home to Texas by the Rangers.
12. Chris Bassitt, SP
Age: 34 | Former Team: Mets | Prediction: Red Sox
Bassitt proved to be a godsend for the Mets last season as he pitched a team and career-high 181⅔ innings, starting 30 games for the first time as Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom battled injuries. He’s as solid of a mid-rotation starter as they come, with a highly effective sinker that usually induces soft contact on the ground and should age gracefully to offset some of the usual concerns about pitchers in their mid-30s. His career home-road splits (home: 2.68 ERA, road: 4.26 ERA) may give some teams pause, though, as he’s been lucky to call two pitcher-friendly parks home in Oakland and New York.
Darren Yamashita/USA TODAY Sports
13. Andrew Benintendi, LF
Age: 28 | Former Team: Yankees | Prediction: White Sox
Benintendi may not have reached the superstar status he appeared destined for back in his early 20s, but he’s certainly an above-average starting outfielder. His elite contact skills and control of the strike zone give him an elevated offensive floor, though his ceiling is stunted by his waning power. Given that he won’t turn 28 until July, expect Benintendi to get a multiyear deal comfortably worth eight figures annually.
14. Josh Bell, 1B
Age: 30 | Former Team: Padres | Prediction: Giants
Bell is a switch-hitting, 25-home run threat with an elite batter’s eye who most teams would like to add to their lineup despite his reputation as a streaky hitter, as evidenced by his severe splits before and after he was traded to San Diego at the deadline. He’s a slightly below-average fielder and will probably become more of a DH at some point over the next few years, but for now he’s in the class of first basemen right below the All-Star level.
15. Kodai Senga, SP
Age: | Former Team: Fukuoka (NPB) | Prediction: Blue Jays
Senga throws 100 miles per hour and has four pitches, including an elite splitter, a curveball and a slider that he’s put to good use in the NPB. He had a 1.94 ERA with 156 strikeouts in 144 innings for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in 2022, blossoming into one of the league’s best starters after beginning his career in relief. Senga could ultimately decide to return to Japan next year, but the fact that there’s no posting fee attached to him will make him that much more attractive to MLB teams in need of a potential top-end starter.
16. Nathan Eovaldi, SP
Age: 33 | Former Team: Red Sox | Prediction: Cubs
Eovaldi is hitting free agency a year too late. The righthander made 32 starts with a 3.75 ERA and 2.79 FIP in 2021, but injuries limited him to just 109⅓ innings in ’22. His ERA (3.87) wasn’t much different from ’21, but he saw his home run rate more than double to 1.73 per nine innings, while his average fastball velocity was down a full tick. Eovaldi will be 33 on Opening Day, and he still limits walks and generates ground balls frequently enough to expect a certain baseline of production. How big a contract he’s able to land will likely depend on how teams view his durability.
17. Tyler Anderson, SP
Age: 33 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Yankees
Armed with a new changeup grip, Anderson was elite at inducing soft contact this year after pitching for four teams over the previous three seasons. The big question: Can he replicate that success outside Los Angeles’s elite player development system?
18. Martín Pérez, SP
Age: 31 | Former Team: Rangers | Prediction: Rangers
For years, you could set your watch to Pérez as a back-end, durable starter with limited upside. From 2014 to ’21, he never posted an ERA better than 4.38, averaging just more than six strikeouts per nine innings during that span. So to call his ’22 All-Star performance—during which he posted a 2.89 ERA in 32 starts—a surprise would be an understatement. How other teams project his performance moving forward is anybody’s guess, but his added reliance on his changeup (and the pitch’s effectiveness) could be a sign that his breakout season was no fluke.
19. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Age: 33 | Former Team: Yankees | Prediction: Padres
Rizzo is probably a bit overrated by the average fan due to his role in ending the Cubs’ World Series drought in 2016—he hasn’t made an All-Star team since then—but he’s still a solid option at first base. The lefty matched his career high with 32 home runs this season and seems like a prime candidate to benefit from the ban of the shift. But the four-time Gold Glove winner has graded out as a below-average fielder since coming to New York and may not prove to be as much of a power threat away from Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch.
20. Jurickson Profar, UT
Age: 30 | Former Team: Padres | Prediction: Mariners
Once upon a time, Profar was the game’s top prospect. But injuries derailed his fast track to stardom and kept him out of the majors for the entirety of the 2015–16 seasons. Profar’s played for three teams in the past five seasons, but he’s demonstrated defensive versatility and a solid enough bat (he has a 101 wRC+ since ’18) to warrant everyday playing time. He found a permanent home in left field for San Diego last year but played five different positions in ’21. He declined his $8.3 million player option for ’23 and should fetch more than that across multiple seasons this winter.
21. Taijuan Walker, SP
Age: 30 | Former Team: Mets | Prediction: Twins
Walker has a six-pitch mix and has seemingly yet to find a balance he’s happy with, as his usage varies quite a bit from year to year. Last season, the righthander nearly doubled his splitter usage to 27%. The underlying peripherals were favorable and indicated he could lean on it, as well as his rarely used cutter, even more as his heater and sinker were hit pretty hard. Perhaps his next team can unlock the right formula. Even if Walker stays the course, he should be a decent No. 3–4 starter, albeit one you wouldn’t feel great about starting a playoff game.
22. Jameson Taillon, SP
Age: 31 | Former Team: Yankees | Prediction: Braves
From his days as a top-ranked prospect to a successful fight against cancer and two Tommy John surgeries, the story of Taillon’s career is an inspiring one. Since having his UCL surgically repaired for the second time, he’s made 61 starts over the past two seasons, posting a 4.08 ERA. Though he hasn’t rediscovered his post-TJ velocity, his average 2022 fastball was a couple of ticks harder than it was in ’21. Pitching half of his games in Yankee Stadium over the past two seasons was a significant factor in Taillon’s uptick in home runs, though he also gave up hard contact at a higher rate. He’ll be 31 on Opening Day, and if he maintains his pinpoint control, he’ll be a solid mid-rotation pitcher throughout the duration of his next contract.
23. Joc Pederson, LF
Age: 31 | Former Team: Giants | Prediction: Angels
Pederson came through this year after back-to-back subpar campaigns, posting career highs in wRC+ (144) and on-base percentage (.353). Though perhaps still best used as the strong side of a platoon, Pederson has been passable against lefties, posting a wRC+ better than 100 in each of the past three seasons against southpaws (though that’s, admittedly, with sparse playing time). If his gains offensively are here to stay, then teams could perhaps live with sticking him in left field for the time being before he shifts into primary DH duties.
24. Michael Conforto, OF
Age: 30 | Former Team: Unsigned | Prediction: Rays
Remember him? A shoulder injury kept Conforto from signing with a team last offseason, but the former Met would be an intriguing signing given his track record when healthy. He had an .864 OPS from 2017 to ’20 but had a down ’21. There’s a good bit of risk but plenty of potential reward.
25. Zach Eflin, SP
Age: 29 | Former Team: Phillies | Prediction: Cubs
Eflin’s underlying stats indicate Philadelphia’s traditionally poor defense has let him down over the past few years. The 28-year-old declined his $15 million mutual option with the Phillies after pitching fairly well down the stretch out of the bullpen (also coming off a knee injury) and could be a nice under-the-radar addition elsewhere.
Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports
26. José Quintana, SP
Age: 34 | Former Team: Cardinals | Prediction: Phillies
Quintana looked to be on his way out of the league after a miserable 2021 campaign split between the Angels and Giants, but he rebuilt his value in Pittsburgh during the first half of ‘22 and ended up as the Cardinals’ Game 1 starter in the NL wild-card series. After leading the majors in home run rate (0.4 HR/9), he’s certainly due for some regression on that front and is unlikely to post a sub-3.00 ERA again. But the lefthander should garner interest from contenders as a mid-rotation option.
27. Noah Syndergaard, SP
Age: 30 | Former Team: Phillies | Prediction: Brewers
For a guy who’s lost five ticks off his fastball since Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard acquitted himself pretty well this year. Thor essentially had to relearn how to pitch as someone with the arsenal of a mere mortal—and he posted a better ERA (3.94) than he did in his final presurgery season (4.28), even while spending the second half with Philadelphia’s bandbox as his home park. The lack of swing and miss in his game will keep some teams away, though: Syndergaard’s 6.35 K/9 rate ranked 96th out of 105 pitchers with at least 120 IP. At least he proved he isn’t as powerless without his heater as Marvel’s Thor is without his hammer.
28. Ross Stripling, SP
Age: 33 | Former Team: Blue Jays | Prediction: Orioles
After years of shuttling between the rotation and bullpen in Los Angeles and Toronto, Stripling appears to have earned himself a shot at starting full time for his next team after posting career bests (3.01 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 1.02 WHIP) across the board. As someone without overpowering stuff, the key was harnessing his command: His career-low 3.7% walk rate was fourth-best among the 104 pitchers with at least 120 IP. Stripling also stopped serving up so many home runs with his fastball, which may have to do with the fact that he nearly doubled his changeup usage, promoting what was his fourth-most used pitch to second chair.
29. Christian Vázquez, C
Age: 32 | Former Team: Astros | Prediction: Cardinals
The former Red Sox catcher won his second ring after being traded to the Astros at the deadline, ostensibly as someone who could outhit incumbent starter Martín Maldonado. Unfortunately Vázquez’s bat never really got going in Houston, but he did become the second catcher in MLB history, along with Yogi Berra, to call a no-hitter in the World Series. Though Vázquez couldn’t unseat Maldonado in Houston, his playoff experience and solid all-around game at a position scarce of such options will help him nab a starting job somewhere.
30. José Abreu, 1B
Age: 36 | Former Team: White Sox | Prediction: Astros
Few hitters have been as consistent over the past decade as Abreu. In nine MLB seasons, he’s never had a wRC+ lower than 114, with five years of at least 130 (including last season’s 137 mark). His 16.2% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, while his .378 on-base percentage was his highest since his rookie season. Abreu saw a drastic downturn in his power outputs though, so it will be interesting to see how teams value him as he’s traded in power for contact. He’ll be 36 on Opening Day, and at some point will start spending more time at DH than first base.
31. Gary Sánchez, C
Age: 30 | Former Team: Twins | Prediction: Tigers
Not counting the shortened 2020 campaign, Sánchez endured the worst offensive season of his career in his first year outside of New York. The former top Yankees prospect still rips screamers when he does make contact, ranking in the 92nd percentile of hard-hit rate, but he’s shown little capacity for hitting any sort of breaking or offspeed pitch over the last five years. He batted .250 and slugged .459 against fastballs in ’22, compared to a .156 batting average and .286 slugging percentage against nonfastballs. Oh, and he’s still a minus behind the plate despite his strong arm. The fact that he’s ranked this high speaks to the dearth of quality catching around the league—and his potential if he can just approach competency against the soft stuff.
32. Andrew Heaney, SP
Age: 32 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Mets
What do you see when you look at Heaney? Do you see one of the game’s premier strikeout artists? Or a human home run machine? The answer lies somewhere in between, but whichever pole you gravitate toward may say more about your outlook on the world than the 31-year-old lefty. The Dodgers simultaneously unlocked the potential that made Heaney a first-round pick a decade ago, and were unable to fully get rid of his most nagging issue. There’s tons of upside here, and perhaps Heaney’s next team can take the progress he made in Los Angeles and take it further (and, most importantly, keep him healthy).
33. Robert Suárez, RP
Age: 32 | Former Team: Padres | Prediction: Yankees
A former construction worker who didn’t make his professional baseball debut until age 24 and just completed his first MLB season after five years playing in Japan, Suárez was certainly the least likely player on this list to be here a year ago. But his emergence on the national stage as a shutdown reliever during San Diego’s stunning NLDS victory over the Dodgers was no fluke. The Venezuelan’s changeup was a force to be reckoned with during the regular season, as hitters managed a measly .089 batting average against it and just two extra-base hits in 168 tries. His sample size of MLB success may not be very large (and Bryce Harper stuck a dagger in his playoff success story), but he boasts legit back-of-the-bullpen stuff.
VERDUCCI: San Diego Saved by the Unlikeliest of Pitches From the Unlikeliest Pitcher
34. Jean Segura, 2B
Age: 33 | Former Team: Phillies | Prediction: Phillies
Segura had his $17 million club option for 2023 declined by the Phillies, making him the only notable second baseman on the market following Milwaukee’s decision to exercise Kolten Wong’s $12 million option. Segura excels at making contact and can hit 10–15 home runs despite a downturn in power this year. The well-traveled middle infielder is overmatched at shortstop at this point in his career, but Statcast has graded him as an elite defender at the keystone since he moved there in ’20. He has enough left in the tank to be a capable starter for the next couple of years, and should fittingly get a two-year contract.
35. Elvis Andrus, SS
Age: 34 | Former Team: White Sox | Prediction: Twins
Whichever teams are left out of the shortstop musical chairs could turn to the veteran Andrus as a consolation prize. The 34-year-old quietly enjoyed a rejuvenation with the A’s and White Sox, posting a wRC+ (105) above league average for the first time since 2017. Andrus is still a capable shortstop, and despite a career-worst strikeout rate (15.9%), he remains a solid contact hitter.
36. Brandon Drury, INF
Age: 30 | Former Team: Padres | Prediction: Red Sox
Drury predictably regressed a bit as a Padre after his unexpected breakout with Cincinnati in the first half, but the batted-ball metrics indicate he didn’t just luck into a 3.0 WAR season. Teams won’t be jumping to commit to him as their third baseman of the future, but after hitting more home runs (28) than Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman, he’ll be seen as a decent corner infield bat. My favorite stat about Drury: He managed just 13 hits against 211 offspeed pitches this year, but they all went for extra bases (eight home runs, five doubles).
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
37. Rafael Montero, RP
Age: 32 | Former Team: Astros | Prediction: Twins
Montero had his four-pitch mix working at a masterly level this season, blossoming into one of Houston’s key bullpen pieces and coming through during the run to the World Series title. After failing to catch on as a starter with the Mets, Montero went through ups and downs on the path toward bullpen dominance, taking a tour of the AL West with stints in Texas and Seattle before landing with the Astros. Relievers and volatility will always go hand-in-hand, as Montero had a 5.78 ERA from 2020 to ’21. But if he can keep utilizing his changeup and sinker to generate ground balls, he’s a valuable option for the back end of the bullpen.
38. Kenley Jansen, RP
Age: 35 | Former Team: Braves | Prediction: Phillies
This is almost certainly Jansen’s last chance to secure a multiyear deal, but it’s unclear whether he’s done enough to merit one at a salary of his liking after converting 41 of 48 saves for Atlanta. He certainly had a far better season than his best career comparable and replacement in Los Angeles, Craig Kimbrel (more on him later). While Jansen’s iconic cutter is still undoubtedly his bread and butter, the improvement of his slider (which moves more like a slurve or even curve) has given hitters something else to worry about and should help him remain an effective closer for a couple of more years.
39. Mitch Haniger, RF
Age: 32 | Former Team: Mariners | Prediction: Royals
After missing nearly 100 games in 2019 and not playing at all in ‘20, Haniger quieted any doubters with a strong ‘21 campaign, hitting 39 homers with a 121 wRC+ in nearly 700 plate appearances. An ankle injury kept him out for more than half the season last year, but he hit well enough over the last two months (a .740 OPS in 48 games) to suggest that he’s physically recovered. Haniger strikes out more and walks less than he did in his prime, but he does enough damage when he makes contact that he’ll likely get a shot as an everyday corner outfielder.
40. Corey Kluber, SP
Age: 37 | Former Team: Rays | Prediction: Padres
Klubot took himself to the Rays’ pitcher repair shop on an $8 million guarantee and emerged with his first full, healthy season since 2018, earning another $5 million in incentives for games started in the process. And there was more than just a clean medical bill to be encouraged about: Kluber posted the majors’ lowest walk rate (1.2 BB/9), often enticing hitters to swing when they shouldn’t have, with a 96th percentile chase rate. The two-time Cy Young winner rarely touches 90 mph anymore but will nonetheless command the attention of several contenders aiming to sign him to a one-year deal.
41. Johnny Cueto
Age: 37 | Former Team: White Sox | Prediction: White Sox
Cueto was the White Sox’ second-best starter this year (behind AL Cy Young finalist Dylan Cease) despite abysmal whiff and strikeout rates. He did, however, excel at producing soft contact and swings on pitches out of the zone. That helped him average more than six innings in 24 starts, 18 of which qualified as quality starts, two more than Cease and the same amount as reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and Dodgers All-Star Tyler Anderson. He should be able to eat some innings for a team near the contention cut line next year.
42. Michael Brantley, LF/DH
Age: 36 | Former Team: Astros | Prediction: Giants
A shoulder injury kept Brantley off the field for the bulk of last season. Though his speed and power have seen precipitous declines, the left fielder can still swing it, posting a robust .288/.370/.416 slash line in 277 plate appearances, with more walks (31) than strikeouts (30). He hasn’t posted a wRC+ below 120 since 2017, and though he’s probably better suited as a DH than a left fielder, there’s still enough left in the tank for someone to offer him regular playing time.
43. Justin Turner, 3B
Age: 38 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Dodgers
Few baseball pairings are a more perfect match than Turner’s fire-red hair and beard with that Dodger blue. As such, we don’t expect to see Turner playing anywhere else in 2023 after a solid-if-unspectacular showing in ’22. His 123 wRC+ is tied for his worst since arriving in Los Angeles in ’14, a testament to just how consistently excellent of a hitter he’s been. A gradual decline is likely to continue for Turner—either in terms of production or ability to play every day (or both)—but he’s still worthy of being a starting-caliber player for a contending team.
44. Michael Wacha, SP
Age: 31 | Former Team: Red Sox | Prediction: Orioles
Wacha parlayed a three-year stretch in which he posted a 5.11 ERA—in fewer than 300 innings for three different teams—into a one-year, $7 million deal with Boston last offseason. That turned out to be a bargain for the Red Sox and sets the righthander up for a bigger payday this winter. Wacha’s 3.32 ERA across 127⅓ innings makes him look like a solid mid-tier starter, though his 4.56 xERA suggests he’s better suited for the back end. His 7.35 K/9 represents the lowest strikeout rate of his career.
45. Sean Manaea, SP
Age: 31 | Former Team: Padres | Prediction: Pirates
Manaea recovered from a torn labrum to pitch serviceably in 2020 and then quite well in ’21, but he took a sizable step back in ’22. The average velocity on his sinker (his most frequently used pitch) was down, strikeouts decreased while walks shot up and he gave up barrels more frequently than he ever has in his career. The results were career worsts in ERA (4.96) and home run rate (1.65 HR/9), though his expected ERA of 4.05 suggests that better results are attainable.
Michael McLoone/USA TODAY Sports
46. Joey Gallo, RF
Age: 29 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Rockies
There’s no way around it: Gallo was awful last season. Though he’s hit below .200 for three years running, his power numbers at least kept him playable in 2021, when he also sported a .351 on-base percentage. But he still runs well, and when he turns on a pitch it can really go a long way. He had a 4.2 fWAR in ‘21, is on the right side of 30 and should benefit from the league restricting the shift in ‘23. There will be at least a handful of teams interested in betting on a bounce-back year.
47. Craig Kimbrel, RP
Age: 35 | Former Team: Dodgers | Prediction: Diamondbacks
Kimbrel appeared a natural fit for California culture after adopting a ponytail during the 2021 season, but MLB’s active saves leader (394, seventh all-time) had a rather disastrous sojourn in Los Angeles. He was demoted from closer in September after converting just 22 of 27 saves (in addition to taking three losses after entering a tied game) and was then left off the team’s postseason roster. What’s more concerning for Kimbrel’s future: He lost another tick on his fastball velocity, and his strikeout rate cratered 15 percentage points down to 27.7%, a rather pedestrian mark for a modern closer and far off what had been the best career mark in MLB history entering last season. There are probably a few teams out there who’d be willing to give the dominant reliever of his era one last shot at being the ninth-inning guy, but there are plenty of warning signs to indicate his days of jogging out of the bullpen to “Welcome to the Jungle” (or “Let It Go”) are behind him.
48. Brandon Belt, 1B
Age: 35 | Former Team: Giants | Prediction: Marlins
Injuries have prevented Belt from appearing in even 100 games in either of the past two seasons. The difference between 2022 and ‘21, though, is that this time, health issues also sapped the first baseman of his productivity. In 148 games across ‘20 and ‘21, Belt hit .285/.393/.595 in 560 plate appearances, with 38 home runs and a 162 wRC+. That production fell off a cliff in ‘22, with a right knee surgery ending Belt’s season in mid-September after just 78 games. If he can return to some semblance of good health for next year, then perhaps his elite production from the not-too-distant past can return.
49. David Peralta, LF
Age: 35 | Former Team: Rays | Prediction: Rangers
Peralta’s 2022 campaign was a tale of two seasons in a pretty bizarre manner. After slashing .248/.316/.460 with 12 homers in 87 games for the Diamondbacks, Arizona traded him to the Rays. The 2018 Silver Slugger winner maintained virtually the same batting average and on-base percentage for Tampa Bay, but his slugging percentage dropped 125 points after he didn’t muster a single homer in 47 games. The one thing that stayed constant for Peralta was an inability to produce against lefthanded pitchers, but the ’19 Gold Glove is still regarded by Statcast as an elite defender on the grass, so he could function well as the heavy part of a platoon against righthanders.
50. Mike Clevinger, SP
Age: 32 | Former Team: Padres | Prediction: Angels
First, the positives: Clevinger returned to the mound after recovering from Tommy John surgery and managed 114⅓ innings across five months of action. His 4.33 ERA was just fine, though there were some underlying metrics that provide some cause for concern, including a 4.98 FIP and career-worst 1.57 home runs allowed per nine innings. Plus, Clevinger’s average fastball velocity was also down to 93.6 mph compared to 95.1 mph in 2020. Many pitchers don’t fully get back up to speed until their second-year post-TJ, so maybe Clevinger will take another step forward in ’23.
