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With the College Football Playoff semifinals—cloaked in a lot of Peach Bowl and Fiesta Bowl signage—set for Saturday night, I figured this would be a good place to take a look at the prospects playing and how they stack up. So I went to a few evaluators this week to try to rank the guys taking the field this weekend who are likely to come off the board first. Here’s the list, with the caveat that injured guys who won’t play, like Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (likely to go in the back half of the first round) and Georgia OLB Nolan Smith (probably going somewhere on Day 2, with an outside shot at being the first round) aren’t part of it, nor are premier 2024 prospects like Buckeyes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
1) Georgia DT Jalen Carter: Based on tape and pure physical ability, Carter is probably the best player in the draft class. NFL teams are always looking for guys who can wreck games from the inside, like Aaron Donald can, because they’re very hard to find. I’ve heard Carter comped to Ndamukong Suh and Fletcher Cox. I also know that there are some questions he’ll have to answer predraft—he’s more talented but not quite as clean off the field as Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. Still, there’s really no way Carter will fall far. My bet today would be he’ll probably go second or third.
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2) Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud: He’s got incredible arm talent, good size and good athleticism. Most of the questions he’ll face are centered on how he handles things breaking down around him—he’s actually really good against pressure but can struggle when he has to play off-schedule or out of structure. “I like him better than I did [Justin] Fields,” says one NFC exec, “but he’s still third in the group [behind Alabama’s Bryce Young and Kentucky’s Will Levis] for me.” It’s fair to say no one player has more on the line in the playoff, related to their NFL draft stock, than Stroud.
3) TCU WR Quentin Johnston: He’s listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds. Whether or not he comes in that big at the combine, what scouts see on the tape is a monster. “He’s huge, big catch radius, he’s really fast, really physical,” says our second NFC exec. “He’s like [DeAndre Hopkins], that type of player. He’s just really, really impressive. … And a motherf---er to tackle.” If there’s one question, it’s his hands. But they’re more, from what I understand, inconsistent than deficient in any way.
4) Ohio State LT Paris Johnson Jr.: I wouldn’t be surprised if, at the end of this, Johnson ends up going ahead of Stroud. From a build standpoint, he looks like he was constructed in a left tackle lab, and he also has a year as a guard on his résumé (versatility never hurts). “As the process goes on, he’ll rise,” says another NFC exec. “He’s a guy who’ll end up in the top 20. … He’s a really rare physical specimen. He’s not super heavy or stout, but he’s really athletic, long and he’ll get stronger. He’s a legit starting left tackle from Day 1.”
5) Georgia CB Kelee Ringo: He’s still seen as more athlete than football player, and there are some questions about motivation and drive here. That said, he’s super talented. “He’s big, fast. You go in there and they tell you he’s gonna blaze in the 40,” says our first NFC exec. “But his tape is boring. He doesn’t make a ton of plays. You feel like he should be better than he is.” After last year finished with a flourish for Ringo, a lot of people projected him to go in the top 10 or 15 picks. He’ll have to change some narratives to get there now. Scouts have cooled on him.
6) Michigan CB DJ Turner: I was very torn on whether to put his teammate, Mazi Smith, in this spot. Smith is strong as an ox but is a little up and down, per scouts, on tape, and may be a two-down player in the pros. Turner, meanwhile, is a good bet to stay in the top 50 through the process, as a really, really solid player who’s got good size and athleticism and plays a premium position. The other name I really struggled leaving out of this spot: Georgia TE Darnell Washington, the 6'7", 269-pound goliath the Bulldogs have paired with Brock Bowers (who is probably just behind Harrison among 2024 prospects in the playoff).
And a little more: TCU C/G Steve Avila, with a strong spring, could wind up sneaking into the bottom of the first round. … As we said in this space the last few months, the strength of the Michigan roster is in its depth of Day 2 and Day 3 prospects. Joining Turner and Smith in that group would be running back Blake Corum and a couple of his linemen. … Ohio State DE Zach Harrison will be an interesting case. He’s an absolute freak athlete. And I could see him blowing up the combine and going in the top 50-or-so picks. … I don’t think the NFL is as high on Nolan Smith as the general public is. One NFL comp I heard for him: Broncos LB Nik Bonitto.
