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Round 2 of the NBA playoffs is underway, and despite some thrilling series in the first round, the top four seeds in each conference advanced to the final eight. Now that we’ve seen how the remaining teams respond to the postseason environment, it feels like a good time to reconsider which one of them has the best chance to win the Finals. Will we finally start seeing some upsets in the conference semifinals? Here’s how I think every team’s title odds stack up.
8. 76ers
Even with NBA Twitter trying to will a Game 7 against the Raptors into existence, Philly closed the deal in Toronto with Joel Embiid and James Harden both playing great. I actually like a lot of what the Sixers have done in the postseason. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have both had nice moments. The Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll has been unstoppable when utilized. It’s just that Embiid’s injury makes a Philly title run a dicey proposition. Even if he returns against Miami, how effective can he be? I do think the Sixers still have a chance against the Heat, but they are severely handicapped as long as their MVP finalist is sidelined.
7. Mavericks
This is no shade to Dallas. Any time you pick against Luka Dončić he makes you feel like an idiot. At the same time, the Mavs have the misfortune of playing against the team that was far and away the best during the regular season, and I’m not sure this current iteration of Dallas’s roster has enough experience together in high-stakes moments to topple a hungry team like the Suns. Phoenix is going to be a much tougher challenge than the Jazz, particularly when it comes to late-game execution. Luka will almost certainly be the best player on the floor every night. Right now, I don’t think that will be enough.
6. Grizzlies
Probably the most chaotic team left in the playoffs. Memphis knows a fourth-quarter double-digit deficit like the back of its hand. I love how fearless the Grizzlies are. Yet their youth and inexperience are not exactly hallmarks of a Finals team. And they’re going up against a team that simply never loses before the championship round when fully healthy. I do give the Grizz the edge over Dallas because of how great they were during the season. And Memphis is certainly capable of knocking off the Warriors. The Grizzlies just can’t consistently play with fire in Round 2 as they did against the Timberwolves.
5. Heat
Miami is the most confusing team left for me in the postseason. The Heat finished the East in first, but I have a hard time trusting their halfcourt offense against other contenders, and to this moment I’m still not sure who they will close with in a fourth quarter against Boston or Milwaukee. While it’s not impossible for teams to win this way, it doesn’t happen often. And complicating matters are injuries to Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry, the latter of whom is missing the start of Round 2. For now, I believe the Heat’s ceiling is a little lower than the other teams left on the board.
4. Bucks
Milwaukee looked dominant in Game 1 against the Celtics, and the Bucks are already making me feel foolish putting them so low. I just think the Khris Middleton injury has to catch up to them at some point, right? Separating the top four teams is extremely difficult, and the Bucks being down one of their three stars is significant. And as great as Milwaukee’s defense looked in the opener against Boston, that unit was shaky at times in the second half of the season. Ultimately, I don’t want to overreact off a Game 1, so I’ll keep Milwaukee second in the East. I already don’t feel good about it, though.
3. Warriors
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Golden State is another team figuring out its rotation on the fly; Steve Kerr happens to have the benefit of three Hall-of-Famers who’ve been through countless battles together at the heart of those lineup decisions. What worries me about the Warriors is even if they advance, I think the Suns are built the best to attack—on both ends of the floor—the guard-heavy lineups the Dubs have been using for much of this postseason. If I have to separate Golden State from the teams left in the field, how they match up with other contenders plays a role. While Steph is still Steph, the Dubs, while looking damn good, don’t look quite as unbeatable as they did during their absolute peak. And with the Curry-Wiggins-Green-Thompson-Poole lineup starting to come back down to earth since the start of the Nuggets series, I wonder how the lineup flux will come into play against more stable teams.
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2. Celtics
I really can’t get over how practically all of this calendar year, Boston was far and away the most dominant team in the NBA. The Celtics are also largely healthy, with Robert Williams returning incredibly quickly after tearing his left meniscus. Boston’s switchy, rangy defense makes life difficult for anyone. And Jayson Tatum is one of the most explosive scorers left in the playoffs. Game 1 against Milwaukee was definitely a little bit of a wake-up call for the Celts. It also shouldn’t erase how this team destroyed everyone in their paths from mid-January onward.
1. Suns
Even with their contentious series against the upstart Pelicans, I can’t quit the Suns. Phoenix is an enviable combination of high-end talent, flawless execution, motivation and experience. And the Suns have seemingly also survived an early injury scare with Devin Booker. My biggest reason for putting Phoenix at No. 1 is Chris Paul, who in this postseason has taken control of multiple games in a way no other player has. The Suns have become a machine in close games, and after last year’s Finals run, this group has the most reps (along with the Bucks) in the highest leverage moments. A veteran team with this much talent and the hunger of coming so near to being champions is a dangerous mix.
The margin between the top four teams on this list to me is incredibly thin. You could interchange Milwaukee, Boston, Golden State and Phoenix and I wouldn’t be mad. What the Suns have shown so far this season is when the competition is at its tightest late in games, no one has performed better than them.
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