Forget seeding and bracketing principles. You want the real ranking of every team in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament? Here it is … with a ceiling and nightmare scenario for each team.
1. Florida Gators
Selection committee ranking: No. 4. The Gators have depth, size, athleticism, killer guards and a cutting-edge coach (who escaped a messy in-season controversy). They have the nation’s No. 1 offense according to KenPom and a top-10 defense. They are red hot after a dominant SEC tournament run, thumping teams I have Nos. 7, 8 and 19 on this list by an average of 15 points. Ceiling: Net cutting. Nightmare: Dan Hurley shows Todd Golden how to win in March in a second-round upset, Georgia makes an improbable Final Four run, and DJ Lagway gets hurt in spring football practice.
2. Duke Blue Devils
Selection committee ranking: No. 2. Winning the ACC tournament without the best player in the nation was impressive. And if Cooper Flagg’s ankle heals up by the Sweet 16 at least, we should see them in San Antonio. The Devils shoot it very well, and as the tallest team in the tournament can shut down the interior on anyone. Ceiling: They can win it all. Nightmare: A third straight tourney exit against a lower-seeded team, as Scott Drew and Baylor show Jon Scheyer what a championship coach looks like in the second round. Meanwhile, North Carolina sails from an undeserving bid to the Final Four.
3. Auburn Tigers
Selection committee ranking: No. 1. They have the strongest résumé of anyone in the tourney, having played an incredible 24 games against teams in the field (and won 19 of them). Their starting five has played 680 college games—they’ve seen it all. Bruce Pearl has Final Four experience. Johni Broome can put the team on his back when needed. Ceiling: Auburn’s first basketball national title. Nightmare: Louisville gets a second-round home court advantage in Rupp Arena, Chad Baker-Mazara gets ejected again, Auburn commits too many fouls and the Tigers are gone the first weekend. Meanwhile, Alabama wins it all.
4. Houston Cougars
Selection committee ranking: No. 3. This is the most consistently persistent team in the field—the Cougars will not relent, and they will make opponents’ lives miserable until they relent. Houston has been to at least the Sweet 16 in five straight tournaments, and this year’s version is one of three in the field with a top-10 offense and defense, per KenPom. In addition to the usual defensive assault, this Houston team has three deadly perimeter shooters in Emanuel Sharp, L.J. Cryer and Milos Uzan. Ceiling: Kelvin Sampson finally wins it all. Nightmare: In four of their last five elimination games, the Cougars scored fewer than 60 points. That happens again, this time against McNeese State in a Sweet 16 stunner. Tilman Fertitta is so upset he starts donating to Texas A&M.
5. Michigan State Spartans
Selection committee ranking: No. 7. They are the deepest team in the field, using 10 men to keep Tom Izzo’s defense-and-rebounding machine humming for a full 40 minutes. They also pass the ball willingly to get good shots. Freshman guard Jase Richardson is a rising star, and Izzo is the last coach an opponent wants to see at this time of year. Ceiling: The Spartans win the title 25 years after their last one (and the Big Ten’s last one). Nightmare: Richard Pitino and New Mexico spring a second-round surprise on the Spartans, while Dusty May takes Michigan to the Final Four. Richardson turns pro and Izzo retires.
6. St. John’s Red Storm
Selection committee ranking: No. 8. No coach in this field can match Rick Pitino’s March Madness résumé: two national titles at two different schools; seven Final Fours at three different schools; 24 appearances at six different schools with a .720 winning percentage. (All these stats include vacated appearances; there are a lot of asterisks with Rick.) Pitino has another classically vicious defensive team, which has helped it compensate for the nagging fact that the Big East champions cannot shoot. Ceiling: Pitino wins a third natty at a third school, staking his claim to being the best college coach ever. Nightmare: The Red Storm are run out in the second round by none other than John Calipari and Arkansas, and UConn revives itself to make a third straight Final Four. Pitino retires and Mike Repole diverts his donor money into horse racing.
7. Tennessee Volunteers
Selection committee ranking: No. 5. No program in the tourney is more overdue for a breakthrough Final Four than the Vols, who are built on an elite defense and physical play. They are a veteran bunch with a great leader in point guard Zakai Zeigler, and they’ve been toughened by top-flight competition all season. They need more from 6' 9" Igor Milicic Jr. than the 7.7 points and 3.3 rebounds he gave them in the SEC tourney. Ceiling: Not just getting to San Antonio, but winning it. Nightmare: Missed shots and fouls doom the Vols to a second-round knockout against UCLA, while three other SEC teams make the Final Four. And quarterback Nico Iamaleava holds out for more NIL money.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
Selection committee ranking: No. 6. If there is one elite SEC team that might benefit most from getting out of conference play, it’s the Tide. Their blazing pace will put pressure on all opponents, and as long as they make some perimeter shots and remember to play some defense, they will go deep into this thing. Point guard Mark Sears needs to rebound from a mediocre SEC tourney and Grant Nelson needs to get healthy. Ceiling: Alabama can win the national title. Nightmare: Alabama is dragged into a methodical second-round game by Saint Mary’s, shoots 12% from three and is sent home, while Auburn stampedes to a national championship and Kalen DeBoer loses top recruits to Georgia.
9. Wisconsin Badgers
Selection committee ranking: No. 12. The pace makeover of the Badgers has been breathtaking, going from horse and buggy to at least a sporty Honda. John Tonje has blossomed into a star, on his third team, averaging 19.2 points per game, and he has a capable supporting cast. Greg Gard has to prove he’s still a second-weekend-and-beyond tournament coach; he hasn’t gotten out of the second round since 2017. Ceiling: Wisconsin can get back to the Final Four for the first time in a decade. Nightmare: A first-round knockout against a Montana team that has lost only once in the last two months. Meanwhile, Chucky Hepburn and three Big Ten teams go to the Final Four.
10. Arizona Wildcats
Selection committee ranking: No. 16. An older, wiser Caleb Love is ready to lead another team on a deep NCAA run, three years after helping North Carolina to the national title game. Arizona is more battle-tested coming out of the Big 12 than it was in the Pac-12 in recent years, and Tommy Lloyd has all the necessary parts. He needs to handle the NCAA crucible better than in the past two seasons, and Arizona has to guard for 40 minutes over the course of multiple games. Ceiling: The Wildcats’ first Final Four since 2001. Nightmare: Akron coach John Groce rekindles his upset flame from years back at Ohio with a first-round knockout of Zona. Mark Few retires and Lloyd goes back to Gonzaga. UCLA and Oregon go to the Final Four.
11. Michigan Wolverines
Selection committee ranking: No. 17. They followed three rough games to end the regular season with three great ones to win the Big Ten tourney, reestablishing faith in their Big Dance potential. Most importantly, guard Tre Donaldson came back to life by averaging 12 points and 7.3 assists in Indianapolis, providing a third option to 7-footers Vlad Goldin and Danny Wolf. That size makes Michigan formidable inside at both ends of the floor—when they can make a few threes, they’re really dangerous. Ceiling: Another Final Four for May and Goldin, two years after doing it at Florida Atlantic. Nightmare: A bad first-round draw against No. 12 seed UC San Diego leads to a one-and-done departure. Michigan State wins it all. And the NCAA Committee on Infractions limbers up to hammer the football program.
12. Maryland Terrapins
Selection committee ranking: No. 15. If they had managed to slow down Donaldson’s Drive, the Terps might have been Big Ten tourney champs. As it is, they proved their mettle and will be a tough out. Freshman big man Derik Queen is a star who is capable of carrying a team for a few rounds. The defense is outstanding. Kevin Willard is a good coach who is due to make a run. Ceiling: The Terps can make their first Final Four since winning it all in 2002. Nightmare: Giant killer Grand Canyon does it again in the first round, taking out a Terps team that is short on Big Dance experience. Queen goes pro. Willard takes an NBA job. Everyone transfers. Scott Van Pelt becomes a Towson fan.
13. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Selection committee ranking: No. 9. The program has gradually evolved from defense-obsessed to embracing offense, with this season’s team ranking sixth nationally in offensive efficiency. JT Toppin is a long, bouncy, 18-point, nine-rebound leading man. The Red Raiders were missing two 14-point-a-game scorers in their Big 12 tourney elimination loss; if Chance McMillian and Darrion Williams are good to go this week, Tech could make a big move. Ceiling: The Red Raiders could make their second Final Four in the last six years. Nightmare: The injury issues don’t clear up, and Tech is wrecked by UNC Wilmington in the first round. Houston, Baylor and Texas A&M all make the Final Four. Grant McCasland pulls a Chris Beard and bails for Texas.
14. BYU Cougars
Selection committee ranking: No. 21. If you like watching teams make shots, you’ll love the Cougars. They’ve hung 90 points on Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas and Baylor, doing it with an intriguing mix of parts. The leading scorer, Richie Saunders, is a self-taught woodworker who speaks four languages; the point guard, Egor Demin, is a 6' 9" freshman from Russia; the post player, Keba Keita, has the biggest shoulders in the tournament. Can they guard well enough to go deep? Ceiling: BYU can rid itself of the label as the winningest program to never make a Final Four. Nightmare: VCU’s disruptive defense exploits the Cougars’ tendency for turnovers in a first-round upset. Everyone goes pro, including head coach and former NBA assistant Kevin Young.
15. Texas A&M Aggies
Selection committee ranking: No. 13. They’ve hit plenty of high points, going 11–7 in the SEC and scoring nonconference wins over Texas Tech, Purdue and Creighton. The Aggies are beasts on the backboard and disruptive defensively. They embrace contact and get to the foul line a lot. Guard Wade Taylor IV is the ride-or-die leader of a group that went to the first round in 2023, the second round last year and hungers for more this time. Ceiling: A&M has never even made a regional final before; it could make an in-state Final Four this time around. Nightmare: Team that lost four of its last six keeps sliding, losing in the first round to Yale. Buzz Williams takes another job. Houston wins the title. Texas goes from First Four to Final Four, and Arch Manning turns out to be the real deal.
16. Oregon Ducks
Selection committee ranking: No. 19. They’ve had three distinct phases: a 9–0 start with wins over Alabama and Texas A&M; a 7–8 midseason swoon; and an 8–1 closing flourish that reestablished confidence. Nate Bittle, a 7-footer with old-school moves and an old-man’s hair line, is an intriguing first option in a balanced offense. Guard Jackson Shelstad is a streaky shooter, but Dana Altman wants him on the floor more than anyone else. Ceiling: Altman took Oregon to the 2017 Final Four, and this team could do it again. Nightmare: After being 8–0 in first-round games with the Ducks, Altman is taken down by Ritchie McKay and Liberty. Arizona wins it all and UCLA makes the Final Four. Altman retires. Everyone transfers. Phil Knight cancels funding.
17. Louisville Cardinals
Selection committee ranking: No. 29. West Virginia got the worst deal by being left out, but the Cards got the second-biggest hosing from the selection committee with a No. 8 seed, a first-round game against Creighton and a potential second-round date with Auburn. The silver lining is playing in nearby Lexington, which could create a home court advantage. Louisville has had an extremely consistent season, efficient on both ends of the floor and riding the star power of point guard Hepburn and wing Terrence Edwards Jr. They need to get sharpshooter Reyne Smith healthy and back in the lineup. Ceiling: From 8–24 to the Final Four? Not out of the question. Nightmare: A team that isn’t great inside gets dominated by Ryan Kalkbrenner in the first round. Kentucky goes to the Final Four. Rick Pitino wins it all and flips the bird at the school that fired him in 2017.
18. Clemson Tigers
Selection committee ranking: No. 18. Clemson showed what it can do by making a regional final last year and following that up with 27 wins so far this season, including victories over Duke and Kentucky. This is an old team that is well-coached by the underrated Brad Brownell—disruptive defensively accurate shooting from the perimeter. The Tigers aren’t very deep, and a season-ending injury to backup guard Dillon Hunter in the ACC tournament could be costly. Ceiling: Clemson has never made a Final Four. Why not now? Nightmare: Clemson alum Will Wade and McNeese State take down the Tigers in the first round. Duke and Louisville both make the Final Four. Notre Dame cancels the football series with Clemson, and the legal bills for suing the ACC come due.
19. Purdue Boilermakers
Selection committee ranking: No. 14. There is life after Zach Edey. Not quite the same quality of life, but enjoyable enough to earn an eighth straight top-16 seed. Point guard Braden Smith picked up the leadership mantle, Trey Kaufman-Renn became an offensive force and the Matt Painter machinery churned on. The concern is on defense, where the Boilermakers are quite vulnerable at the rim. Last time Purdue beat an NCAA tournament team away from home was Jan. 18. Ceiling: Getting through Houston and/or Tennessee wouldn’t be easy, but Purdue has an outside shot at a repeat Final Four. Nightmare: Another first-round low point, this time against High Point. Smith forces too much and the Panthers rack up easy baskets. Painter hangs it up to follow the Cubs all summer. Indiana makes a home run hire.
20. Missouri Tigers
Selection committee ranking: No. 23. Three seasons under Dennis Gates: 25–10, 8–24, 22–11. It’s good for the Tigers to be back on the boom part of the boom-and-bust cycle. Mizzou is athletic, free-flowing, aggressive and adept at getting to the foul line (their free throw rate is highest of anyone in the tournament). Mizzou also is prone to defensive lapses and shaky shot selection. The big men all have their limitations. Ceiling: The program has been to five Elite Eights and zero Final Fours. With a lot of luck, this could be the year. Nightmare: Dragged into a dawdling pace by the crafty Drake Bulldogs, Mizzou melts down in Round 1. Gates leaves for another job. Kansas salvages a lousy season by somehow winning it all. One of the iconic six columns in the Quadrangle topples over.
21. Ole Miss Rebels
Selection committee ranking: No. 24. Coach Chris Beard wants his players to enjoy the salad on the program’s first NCAA tourney ride since 2019. It’s just the 10th bid in school history, fewest of any SEC school. Ole Miss isn’t just here for the food, though—the Rebels forced 179 more turnovers than they committed, which helped overcome some deficiencies on the backboard. Beard knows the way, having taken Texas Tech to the national title game six years ago. Fifth-year senior Jaemyn Brakefield needs to reassert himself after a quiet last three games. Ceiling: A regional final shot at Michigan State would be the program’s deepest run in history. Nightmare: A North Carolina team that shouldn’t have gotten in the tourney comes out of Dayton and takes out Ole Miss in Round 1. Mississippi State makes a deep run. Lane Kiffin loses three recruits to Alabama.
22. Iowa State Cyclones
Selection committee ranking: No. 10. Guard Keshon Gilbert, a 13.4-point, 4.1-assist guy, is out for the tournament with an injury. He missed four of Iowa State’s last seven games, and the Clones went 1–3 without him. Hence why I have ISU ranked much lower than the committee. But T.J. Otzelberger is an excellent coach with several other quality players, so all hope is not lost. This team has maintained its disruptive defensive style while upping the tempo and becoming more efficient offensively. Ceiling: Iowa State has the potential to take down Michigan State in the Sweet 16 before losing in the regional final to Auburn. Nightmare: Without Gilbert, Iowa State fails to unsettle Lipscomb’s high-efficiency offense and the Cyclones are shot out in the first round. Ames drinks its vast Natty Light reserves dry. Iowa hires either Ben McCollum or Darian DeVries.
23. Creighton Bluejays
Selection committee ranking: No. 33. Greg McDermott has done an underrated job with this team, losing a rising star in Pop Isaacs to injury just eight games into the season and still winning 24 games. Creighton is good inside the arc, ranking second nationally in two-point field goal accuracy and 13th in two-point field goal defense. They also rarely foul, with center Ryan Kalkbrenner perfecting the art of leaping to contest drives without fouling. They got a bad draw but will be a hard out. Ceiling: Kalkbrenner will be a tough matchup for Louisville and a worthy adversary for Broome, if Creighton gets to the second round. Get by that, and it’s not hard to see Creighton at least make the Elite Eight. Nightmare: Playing a No. 8 seed with a decided home court advantage in the first round, the Bluejays are victims of bird-on-bird crime against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Omaha takes city bragging rights by shocking St. John’s. McDermott leaves for another job as the five-year Kalkbrenner window closes.
24. UCLA Bruins
Selection committee ranking: No. 25. Mick Cronin’s team won the Pac-12 diaspora championship by going 7–0 against Oregon, USC, Washington and Arizona. Playing outside the Pacific Time Zone was less fun, with the Bruins going 2–7 in the Central and Eastern Time Zones. UCLA creates turnovers, has several shotmakers and solid depth. It also has to play in Lexington, Ky., which is Eastern Time. Ceiling: If the Bruins can get past No. 2 seed Tennessee in the second round, they could make a push all the way to a regional final. Nightmare: A team that hasn’t beaten an opponent in this field since Feb. 4 gets bounced in the first round by Utah State. Cronin reverses his vow not to leave Westwood, jumping to Indiana. The wait for another national title passes the 30-year mark, and UCLA is still stuck schlepping across the country to play Big Ten road games.
25. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Selection committee ranking: No. 30. They got their mojo back by beating Saint Mary’s in a grim slog of a West Coast Conference title game, reestablishing themselves as a March player. Few’s remarkable run of nine straight Sweet 16 appearances is up against it as a No. 8 seed, but don’t count him out. Gonzaga certainly has experience on its side with an all-senior starting lineup—one of whom is in his sixth year, and one in his fifth. Gonzaga goes inside a lot offensively, but isn’t great in that area on defense. Ceiling: Zags shock Houston in the second round and roll on until losing to Tennessee in the regional final. Nightmare: Georgia locks up Gonzaga’s guards and the Zags are out in the first round for the first time since 2008. Saint Mary’s makes a Final Four run. Few retires.
26. Saint Mary’s Gaels
Selection committee ranking: No. 27. They dominated the WCC regular season, playing great defense and methodical offense and dominating on the glass. Then the Gaels shot 0-for-16 from three in Las Vegas against Gonzaga in a panic-stricken offensive performance, reminding everyone that March is not often their best month. Saint Mary’s is not easy to play, with an abundance of size and a knack for forcing their style to the opponent. But Randy Bennett’s 4–7 mark in his last seven NCAA tourneys indicates there are limitations to the way Saint Mary’s plays. Ceiling: Tempo-dictated upsets of Alabama and BYU, leading to a loss to Duke in the regional final. Nightmare: Saint Mary's gets that familiar, bogged-down feeling that comes in March and the Gaels are outscored by Vanderbilt in the first round. Bennett retires. Gonzaga wins it all with one of its worst teams in a long time.
27. UConn Huskies
Selection committee ranking: No. 31. The best coach in the f---ing sport, Danny Two Rings, is up against it this March. UConn doesn’t much resemble its championship pedigree, struggling to guard the perimeter, fouling too much and not making enough threes. But the Huskies are not a lost cause, not yet. They still run some very nice offense, and they have enough pride that they won’t let their three-peat bid die quietly. If anyone can reach inside and unlock something in his team, it’s Dan Hurley. Ceiling: If UConn can somehow upset Florida in the second round, there may be no stopping. At least not until a regional final against a St. John’s team that has owned the Huskies this year. Nightmare: A first-round loss to Oklahoma, followed by Hurley reconsidering and taking an NBA job. Meanwhile, Pitino warlocks his way to a St. John’s national title. And the campus is still in Storrs.
28. Illinois Fighting Illini
Selection committee ranking: No. 22. They have the strange combination of knockout punch and glass jaw, a propensity to blow an opponent out or be blown out. Illinois has won 11 games by 20 or more points and lost four times by 20 or more. They have good offensive efficiency numbers despite being a poor shooting team from three-point range—and taking a lot of them. They are strong on the glass, especially with freshman Morez Johnson Jr. back from injury. They have a budding talent in Canadian freshman Will Riley. Ceiling: They could power through to a very orange Sweet 16 game against Tennessee, and carry on from there until running up against Houston in the regional final. Nightmare: They get smashed from the start by either Texas or Xavier in the first round. A young team disperses to the draft or the portal. Three Big Ten teams reach the Final Four, and raise their commemorative banners to the rafters right-side-up.
29. UC San Diego Tritons
Selection committee ranking: No. 47. By NCAA NET ranking and KenPom predictive metrics, the Tritons are seeded too low by a full three lines at No. 12. They have no history and no splashy wins, but they are a wagon right now. Their 15-game winning streak is the longest in the nation, and the average victory margin in that time is a whopping 19 points. UCSD shoots 10% better inside the arc than its opponents and is a plus-246 in turnover margin. Could the step up in class and scale of the Big Dance be a problem? Maybe. Ceiling: They’re in a rugged region and could use some help from a bracket collapse—otherwise, Auburn is an impediment in the Sweet 16. Nightmare: Michigan’s two 7-footers overwhelm the Tritons in a first-round knockout, while some other No. 12 seed becomes the tournament darling. They return home to actual clouds in San Diego, perhaps even a brief rain shower.
30. Kentucky Wildcats
Selection committee ranking: No. 11. This is a battered team, down three guards from the start of the season but hoping Lamont Butler can get back into the lineup this week. They’re 7–6 in February and March, giving up an average of 93 points in those six losses. Mark Pope has done a phenomenal job hitting high points this season—beating Duke, Gonzaga, Louisville, Florida, Missouri and Tennessee twice—but there might not be much left in the tank. Kentucky could get on a shooting roll and make a run, or its defensive and rebounding lapses could lead to an early exit. Ceiling: The Cats could win a second-round track meet with Illinois, beat Tennessee for the third time and find themselves in a regional final against Houston. That probably wouldn’t end well, but it would be a lot better than losing to Oakland or Saint Peter’s. Nightmare: Pope remains winless as an NCAA tourney coach with a first-round loss to Troy. Meanwhile, Calipari and Louisville both go on Final Four runs.
31. Kansas Jayhawks
Selection committee ranking: No. 28. Imagine seeing them down here. It’s been the program’s worst season since the late 1980s, but there—at least in theory—an opportunity to change course and salvage something. The Jayhawks will have to ride or die with their defense, which has held opponents to low shooting percentages and kept them off the offensive glass. Their offense has to flow through big man Hunter Dickinson, which would work better with some more consistent shooters and drivers around him. Seven players have had their moments, but it’s a hit-and-miss collection of scorers. Ceiling: With Bill Self and the most experienced team in the nation, all good things are possible. One win could lead to three, which could lead to Florida in a regional final, which would probably be the end of the line—but not without putting some stress into the Gators. Nightmare: Kansas is dealt a first-round knockout for the first time since 2006, this time at the hands of Calipari, who is not Self’s best buddy. Missouri goes to the Final Four. Self retires without an heir apparent. Wheat futures tumble.
32. Colorado State Rams
Selection committee ranking: No. 48. The body of work is at odds with the current roll—the Rams have won 10 straight by an average margin of 17 points, storming to the Mountain West tourney title and into the field. They are a very good offensive team, led by a guy you need to know—Nique Clifford, a 6' 6", do-everything player who is averaging 25.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.5 steals in March. CSU could benefit from the March experience of Purdue transfer Ethan Morton, who played well in Las Vegas last week. Ceiling: This is an extremely dangerous 12-seed matched with a vulnerable five-seed in Memphis. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the Rams in the Sweet 16, where Florida would likely end the party. Nightmare: The Rams revert to the team that ranked in the 80s in KenPom in January, getting into foul trouble against Memphis and losing in the first round. Coach Niko Medved jets for Minnesota. Horsetooth Reservoir dries up. New Belgium Brewing shuts down.
33. Marquette Golden Eagles
Selection committee ranking: No. 26. The Golden Eagles’ two-point win over Xavier was their first against an NCAA tournament team since Jan. 3. Since then, Marquette has generally beaten the bad teams (9–1 against non-tourney teams) and lost to the good ones (1–7 against tourney teams). That doesn’t instill a lot of confidence, although the Eagles can cause problems with their defense and taking care of the ball and getting decent shots of their own. They are not a good three-point shooting team, despite taking a lot of them, and they don’t get to the line very often. Ceiling: Hard to see them getting past Michigan State in the round of 32, if they get that far. Nightmare: Marquette is routed in Round 1 by New Mexico for its third annual elimination against a lower-seeded team. Shaka Smart moves on. Wisconsin goes to the Final Four for the third time since Marquette’s last trip.
34. Memphis Tigers
Selection committee ranking: No. 20. The Tigers had a sensational nonconference season, beating Michigan State, UConn, Missouri and Mississippi. The American Athletic Conference slate has been successful, but far less dazzling—Memphis went 16–2 in the league and won the tournament, but the level of performance didn’t quite equal what was done in November and December. Can Penny Hardaway’s team ratchet its game back up to the level of beating good power-conference teams? That might depend on the health of guard Tyrese Hunter, who was injured in the AAC tournament. He’s an adept table setter for PJ Haggerty and big man Dain Dainja. Ceiling: A Sweet 16, at least. Nightmare: A first-round loss to a dangerous No. 12 seed, coupled with the mass exodus of players. Meanwhile, Tennessee wins a national championship before the Tigers do, and Vols fans in Memphis are insufferable.
35. Drake Bulldogs
Selection committee ranking: No. 44. One of the better stories in the tournament, Drake imported a coach and four of his players from Division II and promptly won 30 games. They are a high-functioning unit that will not beat itself, steeled by a season full of close games and a must-win conference tournament. They have a star point guard in Bennett Stirtz, who never leaves the floor and almost always makes the right decisions with the ball. They are not terribly athletic, terribly tall or terribly deep, all of which can be a problem facing a first-round SEC opponent. Ceiling: Nobody should be shocked if Drake shows up in the Sweet 16, where a matchup with St. John’s probably would not end well. Nightmare: Missouri runs past and jumps over the Bulldogs, getting them in foul trouble in a first-round romp. McCollum leaves for a Big Ten job, and after three straight astute hires Drake gets the next one wrong.
36. Baylor Bears
Selection committee ranking: No. 35. The season to date falls into the More Was Expected category, with the Bears losing eight of their last 14 games and beating no one of consequence in that span. Turns out that integrating three key transfers and two freshmen isn’t the easiest thing to do—even if one of them, guard VJ Edgecombe, is a likely lottery pick. Baylor has nice offensive metrics but not so much defensively—that tracks with the previous two seasons, both of which ended in the second round. It’s been a while since Baylor was in a role to pull upsets in this tournament, so maybe that’s a liberating factor. Ceiling: In 2010, the Bears put a scare into No. 1 seed Duke in the regional final. This time around they might get a chance to do it in the round of 32, especially if Flagg is compromised. A win there would change the complexion of the season. Nightmare: Baylor loses in the first round for the first time since ’16. Drew regrets not leaving for Kentucky and inquires about Indiana. Some other Texas team wins the national title. Chip and Joanna Gaines check out.
37. New Mexico Lobos
Selection committee ranking: No. 38. Basketball in the West is always better when the Lobos are relevant, and Richard Pitino has reestablished that over the last three years. Is this his best team? Only if they can make enough shots—free throws included. New Mexico plays at a tempo that puts stress on opponents, and defends with vigor. Donovan Dent is a big-time scoring guard with an active streak of six straight 20-point games. Nelly Junior Joseph, who transferred from Pitino The Elder to Pitino The Younger, is a very active big man. Ceiling: Lobos draw a vulnerable Marquette team in Round 1, then would have to do battle with Michigan State. Tough one. Nightmare: The non–San Diego State portion of the Mountain West continues to struggle as New Mexico misses a dozen free throws and lets an upset of Marquette slip away. Pitino leaves for Villanova five minutes after the horn sounds.
38. Georgia Bulldogs
Selection committee ranking: No. 34. The Dawgs ended a 10-year tournament drought, closing the regular season with a four-game winning streak that got them off the bubble and safely into the field. This is by far the best of Mike White’s three teams at Georgia, with some NBA-level talent (freshman big man Asa Newell) and a dynamic sophomore guard in Silas Demary Jr. The Bulldogs can self-destruct with turnovers and are a fickle outside shooting team, but a very solid defensive unit. Ceiling: On paper, Georgia matches up well with Gonzaga and could push into a second-round date with Houston. That’s probably where the party ends, but the level of competition won’t be anything Georgia hasn’t seen this year. Nightmare: The Dawgs’ offense stagnates and blows a lead to the Zags, extending the program’s streak of years without an NCAA win to 23. Florida wins it all. Gunner Stockton isn’t the answer at quarterback.
39. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Selection committee ranking: No. 32. Chris Jans has traded some defense for offense this season; we’ll see if that tips the scales in their favor in this tourney after going 0–2 the last two seasons. Like many other teams, getting outside the SEC might pay dividends. Josh Hubbard is one of the great streak shooters in the Big Dance, capable of raining down contested jumpers in bulk when he’s on. But the Bulldogs’ three-point accuracy as a team is 5% worse than their opponents, and that disparity grew to 8% in SEC games. Ceiling: Two and through seems like the best it can get, although if Flagg can’t go in a second-round game that increases chances for a Sweet 16 breakthrough—State hasn’t been there since reaching the 1996 Final Four. Nightmare: Another first-round punchout, while Ole Miss goes roaring off to the Final Four. Jans leaves, and everyone transfers.
40. VCU Rams
Selection committee ranking: No. 45. Predictive metrics like the Rams a whole lot more than the committee does—KenPom has them at No. 30, 15 spots higher than the committee. They’re a demonic defensive team, leading the nation in effective field goal percentage allowed while also creating a lot of turnovers. Five rotation players are in their fifth or sixth years of college ball, so they shouldn’t rattle easily. Whether they can score easily is another question. Coach Ryan Odom owns arguably the most immortal upset in Big Dance history, dating to his days at UMBC. Ceiling: VCU could end up in a Sweet 16 game against Alabama and have a puncher’s chance. Nightmare: The Rams can’t handle BYU’s offense in the first round and are shown the door, still looking for their first NCAA win since 2016. Odom departs for Virginia before the players have finished their postgame showers.
41. Oklahoma Sooners
Selection committee ranking: No. 36. Nobody had a better 2024 portion of the season than the Sooners, who were 13–0 with six wins over power-conference opponents when the calendar flipped to ’25. They wound up needing all of it, because the 7–13 SEC market correction pushed them onto the bubble for a while. Oklahoma’s offense revolves around freshman guard Jeremiah Fears (a prime NBA prospect) and senior forward Jalon Moore—together they average 33 points and 9.9 rebounds. The defense is suspect, especially when it comes to rim protection and rebounding. Ceiling: Porter Moser has taken lower-seeded teams than this to the Final Four (’18) and Sweet 16 (’21). They get the first chance to end UConn’s 12-game NCAA tourney winning streak—but due to SEC bracket bloat, the Sooners could face a Florida team that pummeled them last month in the second round. Nightmare: UConn gets its act together and Oklahoma plays like a team that hasn’t held an opponent to fewer than 70 points since Jan. 25. Texas goes from First Four to Final Four, and Brent Venables starts meddling with the offense in spring ball.
42. Arkansas Razorbacks
Selection committee ranking: No. 37. The Calipari Experience has checked all boxes: massive talent infusion, check; accompanying hype, check; wildly uneven product on the floor, check; flair for the dramatic with the season on the line, check; bizarre coaching in pressure situations, check. In February and March the Hogs roared from the wrong side of the bubble into the bracket, with the possibility of doing some damage. The defense is good, the offense is sporadic. Ceiling: Arkansas could absolutely beat Kansas in the first round, setting up Pitino vs. Cal, Part 1,000. Pitino has the better team, Cal has had the better results over the last 15 years. Could the Hogs sneak into the Sweet 16? Yes. Nightmare: Cal blows a nine-point lead against Self in the final two minutes and is out of the tournament in the first round for the third time in the last four years. All nine rotation players go pro. Calipari declares draft night the best moment in program history.
43. Vanderbilt Commodores
Selection committee ranking: No. 39. Among all the first-year coaches doing good work this season, Mark Byington was one of the best. Vandy is dancing for the first time in eight years thanks to six SEC wins over fellow tournament teams. The Dores take care of the ball and shoot well when AJ Hoggard isn’t doing too much (he’s made two of his last 19 threes). Vandy can take the ball away defensively but doesn’t guard the arc well and fouls too much. Ceiling: Their fast pace could cause problems for Saint Mary’s, but it would also play right into the hands of second-round opponent Alabama. Nightmare: Vandy launches a litany of bad shots against the Gaels, loses the tempo battle and is out of the tournament in Round 1. Tennessee wins the whole thing. Price of lattes soar in the chi-chi shops on West End Ave.
44. San Diego State Aztecs
Selection committee ranking: No. 43. Early marquee wins outweighed late MWC losses to get the Aztecs into the dance for the 12th time in the last 15 editions. This SDSU team doesn’t have the offensive prowess of the previous two, which went a combined 7–2 in the tourney, but as usual they defend unrelentingly. The NBA has its eyes on athletic wing Miles Byrd, although his offensive production has waned over the last half of the season. Seven-footer Magoon Gwath has missed the last five games; SDSU says he could be available for the tourney, but was that just posturing for a bid? Ceiling: San Diego State will gain a million fans if it eliminates North Carolina in Dayton—most of them from the state of West Virginia. Two more wins could follow before reality arrives in the Sweet 16. Nightmare: Aztecs enable a UNC tourney run with a miserable performance in Dayton, then return home to watch UC San Diego become the toast of the town by winning two games.
45. Liberty Flames
Selection committee ranking: No. 50. Ritchie McKay’s rock-solid program is built on taking better shots than the opposition, and making them. Liberty’s effective field percentage is 12.5% better than what it allows, which will win a lot of games—28 of them so far this year. The Flames are 53 out of 111 (47.7%) from three in their last four games, which should terrify first-round opponent Oregon. Height and depth are concerns, though. Ceiling: Liberty could blaze a trail through the West, beating Oregon and Arizona in Seattle before running into Duke. Nightmare: In a game that ends well after midnight on Liberty’s body clock time, the Flames’ 65.4% foul shooting, worst in the tournament, costs it in a close loss to the Ducks. McKay decides to retire. The team’s junior nucleus disbands
46. McNeese State Broncos
Selection committee ranking: No. 49. McNeese appears to have done its job in the Wade transaction, laundering his reputation for two years while he wins a bunch of games and setting him up for his next job, which could come quickly after the Broncos are eliminated. McNeese dominated the Southland Conference with superior talent while playing solid defense, holding its last six opponents to 66 points or fewer. Wade’s seven-man rotation makes up for a lack of height by creating turnovers and blanketing shooters. Ceiling: Wade takes down his alma mater, Clemson, and catches High Point in a bracket-collapse second-round game. The run ends in the Sweet 16, but that would be two more wins than McNeese ever had in the NCAAs before. Nightmare: Clemson punks the Broncos from the start. Wade agrees to a deal with North Carolina State before leaving the arena. McNeese returns to obscurity.
47. Yale Bulldogs
Selection committee ranking: No. 51. Yale has become a highbrow regular in this event, earning its fifth bid in the last nine years. The Bulldogs have won two games in the dance, including shocking Auburn last year, and this season’s team is a threat as well. They’ve lost one game since Christmas, with a Big Three of John Poulakidas, Nick Townsend and Bez Mbeng combining for 46 points, 16 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game. James Jones knows what he’s doing on the bench. Ceiling: Yale rebounds well enough to hang with first-round opponent Texas A&M, and could get a bizarro second-round matchup with UC San Diego. Dare to dream of another March Madness game with Auburn? Nightmare: This is basketball, not quick recall, and the Aggies roll the Bulldogs from the jump. Harvard beats out Yale for a five-star biomedical engineering student. Endowment craters.
48. Utah State Aggies
Selection committee ranking: No. 40. Their No. 10 seed is largely a byproduct of what they did in November and December. Since then, this is more of a No. 12 seed that has struggled on the defensive end. But Utah State is a very good offensive team, dangerous from three-point range and fastidious with the ball. Guards Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev are the mainstays for coach Jerrod Calhoun. Ceiling: UCLA in the Eastern Time Zone is gettable, but Tennessee in the second round is not. Nightmare: The Bruins are ready, and they beat the Aggies as badly as Colorado State has the last two times those teams played. Calhoun becomes the third coach to bounce out of Logan in the last three years. BYU makes the Final Four and the rest of the Mountain West outperforms the Aggies.
49. Texas Longhorns
Selection committee ranking: No. 41. The grating presence of the Longhorns in this tournament can be laid at the feet of rival Texas A&M. Had the Aggies not blown a 22-point lead on the Horns in Austin in January, and had they not lost a six-point overtime lead in Nashville last week, Texas would be out. (So, in all likelihood, would coach Rodney Terry.) But Texas can puff out its chest as the 14th-best team in the SEC as Terry continues to search for the right chemistry. Ceiling: With freshman lottery pick Tre Johnson playing within the team concept, Texas wins in Dayton, then rolls Illinois, then catches wounded Kentucky and reaches the Sweet 16. Nightmare: The Horns squander the committee’s gift with a First Four loss to Xavier, then watch A&M make the Final Four. Manning has the sniffles at spring practice, spurring panic and concern.
50. Akron Zips
Selection committee ranking: No. 53. Their dominant, 17–1 record in the MAC nearly went down in flames in the tourney final, with the Zips needing a late rally to beat Miami (Ohio) by two. With the tension of that must-win game out of the way, expect a more liberated Akron team to take on Arizona on Friday. The deep and balanced Zips are led by two guards who have been on the team their entire college careers to date, juniors Nate and Tavari Johnson (no relation). Size is an issue, as is the general competitiveness of the MAC. Ceiling: Groce has won three NCAA tourney games as a double-digit seed from the MAC while at Ohio; why not do it again with a team that has only lost once in 2025? The Zips could conceivably win a shootout with Arizona, then catch Liberty in a bracket-collapse game and crash the Sweet 16. Nightmare: Akron’s 0-for-forever NCAA streak continues with a blowout loss to Zona. It’s over early, making the cost of the commute to Seattle excessive. Groce takes another job.
51. Xavier Musketeers
Selection committee ranking: No. 42. At least Xavier athletic director Greg Christopher wasn’t on the selection committee, or he would be in the crosshairs of the West Virginia governor, too. The Musketeers essentially have a two-point road win over Marquette on Jan. 18 to thank for their sketchy inclusion in this tournament. They do have some talented players, with guard Ryan Conwell on fire of late from three (24 out of 41 over his last five games) and big man Zach Freemantle averaging 21.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in March. Xavier is pretty mediocre inside the arc, both offensively and defensively. Ceiling: With a semi-home crowd behind them, they could certainly beat Texas in the Dubious Dayton Showdown on Wednesday. They could take down mercurial Illinois and wounded Kentucky thereafter and reach the Sweet 16. Nightmare: Sean Miller sweats through all his clothing watching his team fail to guard Tre Johnson, and Xavier is quietly ushered out of the tournament. The stay is so short and the bus ride back to Cincinnati so quick that nobody notices the Musketeers ever left campus. Meanwhile, all other Big East teams win multiple games.
52. North Carolina Tar Heels
Selection committee ranking: No. 46. The credibility of their athletic director, the selection committee and the entire NCAA is on the line in Dayton—better show up ready to play, Heels. At least outperform the last ACC team that didn’t deserve a bid (Virginia last year lost by 25 in the First Four). After a season of losing to good teams and beating mediocre ones, Carolina must improve its defensive performance while avoiding untimely lane violations. Stand by for updates on the state of West Virginia’s “investigation” of “corruption” associated with UNC’s bid. Ceiling: Further injury luck may be in front of the Heels, even if they didn’t take advantage of it against Duke on Saturday. San Diego State has a 7-foot shot blocker who may or may not be available; and if Carolina can make the round of 32, it may encounter an Iowa State team missing a key guard. No need to look beyond Michigan State in the Sweet 16. Nightmare: Carolina adds to its lengthy list of quality losses against San Diego State and meekly leaves town before West Virginia authorities arrive to seek Bubba Cunningham’s extradition. Duke goes on to win it all.
53. High Point Panthers
Selection committee ranking: No. 52. They’ve forgotten how to lose, having not done so since Jan. 16. High Point earned its first NCAA bid in school history with some dazzling offensive basketball, having scored more than 75 points in its last 17 games. The Panthers’ effective field goal percentage of 56.4 ranks 12th nationally, and fourth among teams in the tournament. Defense, on the other hand, is an issue. Guard Kezza Giffa, product of France, leads a balanced team at 14.8 points per game. Second-year coach Alan Huss is a rising star. Ceiling: Could they make enough shots to induce an old-school Purdue panic? Yes. Could they win again by facing McNeese State in a bracket-collapse game? Also yes. Nightmare: Purdue shreds a vulnerable Big South defense and routs High Point by halftime. Huss gets a job upgrade. High Point’s high point fades quickly.
54. Grand Canyon Antelopes
Selection committee ranking: No. 54. This version of the Antelopes isn’t as good as last year’s, which won a first-round game and pushed Alabama in the second round. That’s particularly true offensively, where Grand Canyon is a rough perimeter shooting team and prone to turnovers. But there is still some dangerous underdog DNA in the program that demands respect. Maryland had better be ready for the long trip west and matchup with Bryce Drew’s team, which has considerable length and experience. Ceiling: Grand Canyon pulls the first-round shocker again, then adds one more win over either Memphis or Colorado State. Nightmare: The Terps’ excellent defense devours the Lopes, who miss all their threes and commit 20 turnovers. Drew finally takes another job. Online enrollment tanks.
55. Troy Trojans
Selection committee ranking: No. 56. Underrated coach Scott Cross has been a modern rarity—an organic team with five starters who have all been at Troy for their entire college careers. That includes brothers Myles and Marcus Rigsby, from Fort Worth. The Trojans are a hardy defensive unit that guards the interior, blocks shots and creates turnovers. The offensive end of the court is a bit of an adventure, with sketchy three-point shooting and plenty of turnovers (although Troy has reduced those lately). Ceiling: Troy catches a banged-up Kentucky in the first round and pulls the stunner, then wanders into a winnable second-round game against Illinois. Nightmare: Lacking the size and shooting to keep up with Kentucky’s firepower, the Trojans are bounced out of the dance quickly. The state of Alabama barely notices with Auburn and Alabama going deep into the tourney.
56. Lipscomb Bisons
Selection committee ranking: No. 55. The champions of the A-Sun Conference are the second-best team in the tournament at not fouling, which is good because they have precious little depth. But they do have a bell cow forward in Jacob Ognacevic, straight out of Sheboygan, Wis., who averages 20.1 points and 8.1 rebounds while shooting 63% from two-point range and 41% from three. Ceiling: Lipscomb weathers Iowa State’s attacking defense and makes enough threes to shock the Cyclones. The Bisons then are gifted with a round of 32 game against North Carolina and win that as well. Nightmare: Cyclones pick apart Lipscomb’s middling defense and blow them out. Vanderbilt and Tennessee both win multiple games and the city of Nashville forgets Lipscomb made the tourney.
57. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Selection committee ranking: No. 57. They’ve been fortunate enough to get five years out of coach Takayo Siddle, who has won 99 games over the last four—27 of them this season. Wilmington is experienced, aggressive and poised, making shots when it needs them. Fifth-year guard Donovan Newby is a clutch performer, making 39 of 41 at the foul line in February and March. This isn’t a great defensive team, and the quality of competition in the Coastal Athletic Association isn’t what it once was. Ceiling: If Texas Tech remains shorthanded due to injuries, the Seahawks can win in Wichita. Maybe they get a winnable second-round game against Drake, too. Nightmare: Tech gets its injured players back and shreds Wilmington with ease in a late-night game. Seahawks leave town under cover of darkness. Surf is not up when they return home.
58. Robert Morris Colonials
Selection committee ranking: No. 59. They’ve won 16 of their last 17 games, rolling through the Horizon League with a revamped roster Andrew Toole cobbled together in the offseason. Leading scorer Kam Woods is on his fourth school in four years. Alvaro Folgueiras, an intriguing stretch-four talent, is from Spain. There is a junior-college transfer, a D-II transfer and two guys from the MAC. Robert Morris hits the glass and gets to the line, but doesn’t shoot particularly well. Ceiling: City of Pittsburgh gets behind the Colonials, who push an overconfident Alabama for 36 minutes before relenting. Nightmare: City of Pittsburgh forgets to tune in Friday afternoon until it’s too late, with Alabama roaring to a 25–5 lead and never looking back.
59. Omaha Mavericks
Selection committee ranking: No. 61. The trash-can punishers were a fun story this season, winning games and ritualistically pounding on a trash can as a postgame celebration. The Mavericks have won 18 of their last 21 games, rolling unabated through the Summit League tournament with a high-functioning offense that camouflaged a weak defense. Forward Marquel Sutton is the star, averaging 19.1 points and eight rebounds. Ceiling: First-round opponent St. John’s shooting struggles mean the Red Storm cannot take advantage of Omaha’s bad defense, so the Mavericks hang around all game before submitting late. Even the Nebraska and Creighton snob fans get on the bandwagon for a couple hours. Nightmare: Rick Pitino unleashes a trademark tournament defensive frenzy on an opponent more accustomed to playing teams from the Dakotas. It’s over early. Creighton continues to be Omaha’s team.
60. Bryant Bulldogs
Selection committee ranking: No. 62. There is another Martelli on the sideline, and his old man approves of the job he’s doing. Phil Martelli Jr. has been the head coach of the Bulldogs for two seasons and gone 43–24, securing the first NCAA bid in school history. Bryant has won 17 of its last 19, dominating the America East with superior length, tempo and athleticism. Rafael Pinzon leads four double-digit scorers at 18.5 points per game. Ceiling: Bryant annoys Michigan State for the full 40 minutes before falling. Nightmare: Michigan State forces turnovers and dominates the glass to run a fast break layup line on the Bulldogs in an easy blowout. Someone hires Martelli Jr. away.
61. Montana Grizzlies
Selection committee ranking: No. 58. The Grizzlies are a top-five team in the tournament in effective field goal percentage, making 57.3% of their twos and 36.5% of their threes. That will help a team win 14 of its last 15 games and roll through its conference tournament with ease. With four 40% three-point shooters in the rotation, they’re a dangerous offensive team. Whether they defend well enough is another matter entirely. Ceiling: Wisconsin has been known to cough up a first-round hairball under Greg Gard, and a No. 3-vs.-14 upset isn’t out of the question—especially if Montana is hot from the field. The Grizzlies have an outside shot at their first NCAA win since 2006. Nightmare: The Badgers shred the Montana defense for easy baskets and an easy win. Kevin Costner’s fictional ranch continues to get more attention than the Grizz.
62. Wofford Terriers
Selection committee ranking: No. 60. This team is more than a 250-pound Manitoban shooting underhand free throws to try to improve his 31.8% accuracy, but we have to start there. Kyler Filewich is a good player, averaging 11.9 points, 9.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists—and if he could just improve his foul shooting to bad, he’d really be dangerous. As it is, he’s emblematic of a 19–15 Southern Conference champion that won three straight games for just the second time this season. This team is largely composed of players who have been at Wofford for multiple years, and the continuity has paid dividends. Ceiling: Wofford continues its red-hot three-point bombing from the SoCon tourney, where the Terriers sank 37 in three games, and push Tennessee to the brink before submitting. Nightmare: Filewich goes to the line in a one-point game and, well, the Volunteers advance.
Kyler Filewich going with the underhanded FT form 🫡pic.twitter.com/bH5QTxlshx
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 11, 2025
63. Norfolk State Spartans
Selection committee ranking: No. 63. Coach Robert Jones has become a MEAC institution, logging 12 seasons at Norfolk, and this is one of his best teams. The Spartans beat James Madison and High Point in nonconference play, then survived a couple of dramatic MEAC tourney games to reach their third NCAA tournament in the last five years. They shoot well inside the arc and get to the foul line frequently, but do not fare well on the defensive glass—which, facing Florida, is an unfortunate problem to have. Ceiling: Accommodations in Raleigh are lovely. The buses are on time. The arena is nice. The game is played. Nightmare: The game is played. Florida flattens Norfolk from the start in an instant blowout. Then a bigger program finally wises up and hires Jones.
64. American Eagles
Selection committee ranking: No. 65. You want a throwback team? The Eagles have a roster with 35 years of Division I playing experience—33 of them at American. Just two players have transferred in, both of them early in their careers. This is as homegrown a team as it gets. American won 15 of its last 18 games to get here, shooting plenty of threes and making a solid percentage of them. Fifth-year senior Matt Rogers is the go-to guy offensively for coach Duane Simpkins. Ceiling: American can beat Mount Saint Mary’s in the First Four, then reasonably expect to get trucked by Duke. Nightmare: Flagg is good to go, and the trucking is even worse than expected. North Carolina beat American by 52 points this season, and the Blue Devils have beaten the Tar Heels three times.
65. SIUE Cougars
Selection committee ranking: No. 64. Another first-time dancer, the Cougars got here by winning the Ohio Valley Conference. À la the Martellis, this is another second-generation Italian coaching success story—Brian Barone is the son of Tony Barone, who took Creighton to the Big Dance a couple of times back in the 1980s. SIUE has the third-worst effective field goal percentage in the tournament but they do guard fairly well, with enough height to defend the rim. Ceiling: The Cougars’ fans could make the manageable drive from Edwardsville, Ill., to Wichita for the game. They make some noise as SIUE keeps it interesting against Houston for a half. Nightmare: It’s never interesting as Houston pounces from the opening tip. Barone gets a job upgrade, and people go back to confusing SIUE with SIU in Carbondale.
66. Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers
Selection committee ranking: No. 66. Every few years, The Mount rises up and earns a bid. This season’s team is not among the program’s best, tying for fourth in the MAAC and then winning the tournament with defense and timely three-point shooting. Unfortunately for them, the Mountaineers are a wreck with the ball, ranking 359th nationally in turnover rate. Ceiling: Mount St. Mary’s can beat American in the First Four and advance to the main bracket. It has no chance against Duke. Nightmare: The Mount is laid low by American. After racking up the most wins at Mount St. Mary’s this century (22), first-year coach Donny Lind upgrades to another job.
67. Alabama State Hornets
Selection committee ranking: No. 67. Let it be known that the Hornets do have a win over someone in this field, having defeated Omaha, 85–67, on a neutral court in November. They’ve also won 10 of their last 11 games. Coach Tony Madlock has a deep rotation and a lot of balance, with an emphasis on avoiding turnovers. The shooting isn’t always pretty, and the Hornets foul a lot. Ceiling: Alabama State can become the first winner of this tournament Tuesday night in Dayton against Saint Francis. That would be followed by a bus ride south to Lexington and an elimination date with Auburn. Nightmare: Alabama State has the misfortune of losing to the No. 311 team in the KenPom ratings and is the first team eliminated from March Madness.
68. Saint Francis Red Flash
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ranking the Men’s NCAA Tournament Field 1–68.
