For the first time in three seasons, the Houston Texans are 4-4 and firmly part of the AFC playoff picture entering November.
New head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, an overwhelming favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, have seemingly revitalized the franchise overnight. They’re two games behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and just one game behind the 5-3 Cincinatti Bengals for the final Wild Card spot in the conference.
Considering the major importance of the closing schedule for Houston moving forward, it’s a worthwhile exercise to think about what games will be the most important down the stretch in pursuit of the playoffs. Whether it’s difficult of opponent, timing on the schedule, or rivalries there are multiple intriguing contests for Houston.
No. 9 — vs. Arizona Cardinals
Someone had to rank last on this list.
The Arizona Cardinals are the worst team in football currently under new head coach Jonathan Gannon and beginning a rebuild. They’re set to return veteran quarterback and former MVP candidate Kyler Murray but that likely won’t be enough to off-set their relative talent deficits across the board.
Houston has played significantly better at home this season and should feel highly motivated to win after their draft day trade to acquire the rights to Will Anderson. This game goes down as a “must win” against a bad team but is the least interesting of their remaining matchups.
No. 8 — vs. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos started off the 2023 season as one of the worst teams in football but have began to surge recently with a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson are beginning to find their way but the Broncos are still considered an outlier in terms of the AFC playoff picture.
This is another contest where Houston will cling to their home field advantage and have to trust that their own high-caliber offense can overpower one of the league’s worst defenses.
No. 7 — vs. Tennessee Titans
Houston’s home game against the Tennessee Titans will be the second time the team plays Tennessee in three weeks. The Titans have launched a soft reload starting rookie quarterback Will Levis and, if the season ended today, would pick in the Top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft.
This contest ranks only below the road contest because it should be one that Houston is expected to win and possibly with the playoff picture already determined during Week 17.
No. 6 — at Tennessee Titans
This game ranks ahead of the second contest for three primary reasons.
First, this will be the Houston Texans first attempt at defending Derrick Henry, Levis and the Tennessee offense. Second, it’s earlier place on the schedule will likely be more telling towards the playoff picture.
No. 5 — at New York Jets
The New York Jets are firmly in contention for the AFC Wild Card race and represent one of the toughest defenses that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and Stroud will have to prepare for. Fortunately, their anemic offense under third year quarterback Zach Wilson creates a very winnable contest.
No. 4 — at Indianapolis Colts
Houston’s rematch against the Indianapolis Colts serves as not only a pivotal AFC South contest but a chance at redemption after they were embarrassed in Week 2 earlier this season.
Their ability to better contain coach Shane Steichen’s offense and win during the last week of the NFL season could very well determine whether or not Ryans makes the playoffs during his first year.
No. 3 — vs. Cleveland Browns
This game will be personal.
Houston has a chance to get revenge against their former quarterback while also winning a pivotal contest over a team that currently holds a one game advantage (5-3) for the AFC Wild Card. Cleveland boasts one of the NFL’s best defenses and could be Stroud’s toughest challenge of the year despite hosting the game at home.
No. 2 — at Cincinnati Bengals
It’s early, but it would be wrong to underestimate the impact that Week 10’s game against the Bengals holds for Houston.
A win against Joe Burrow and Cincinnati could put Houston in the driver’s seat to host a potential playoff game. A loss could put Stroud, despite any heroics, two games out in a fiercely competitive AFC playoff race. The young Texans ability to steal a game this week could ultimately be pivotal for how competitive they are down the stretch.
No. 1 — vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
An AFC South rival is, not surprisingly, the most pivotal of Houston’s remaining games.
Jacksonville currently sits two games ahead of the Texans to win the AFC South. The simplest path for those in the Battle Red to make the 2023 playoff picture will be winning their own division and it could be nearly impossible without winning this game.
Explosive offensive play and finding ways to once again stop Trevor Lawrence will serve as Houston’s simplest path towards the playoffs and most important possible win of the remaining season.
