Much has changed since we last ranked NBA title contenders headed into the new year. Back then, my highly scientific (a.k.a. vibes) method gave the Nets the second-best chance at winning it all this season, while the Suns—in the middle of a downturn—came in at ninth. Needless to say, the NBA landscape is looking a little different in the final quarter of the season, with the dust almost entirely settled roster wise post-trade deadline and All-Star break. Here’s how I would size up the list of contenders for the homestretch of the season… (Note: Statistics current through games played Feb. 27)
Out: Pelicans
This team always seems to be battling injuries, and we have no idea when Zion Williamson will return. Even if he‘s back in time for the postseason, with how far the Pelicans have dropped, the climb is going to be too steep for them this year.
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11. Mavericks
The early returns of the Luka Doncic-Kyrie Irving pairing haven’t been stellar. While Dallas entered Tuesday a firm plus in their minutes, the defense has predictably not been great when the two share the floor. I don’t see how the Mavs put together a championship-caliber group around those two this year, even with a healthy Maxi Kleber. Maybe it’s possible this offseason if Irving sticks around. For now, this is mostly a token mention.
10. Kings
Another team that realistically does not defend well enough to make a deep run. At the same time, I have to show my respect to the Beam, Mike Brown and Sacramento’s incredible offense. It doesn’t feel entirely impossible for the West’s current third seed to sneak into the Finals.
9. Cavaliers
The Cavs are a net rating darling and have the profile of a team on both sides of the ball that can win it all, appearing in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite a recent surge from Milwaukee and the continued steady play of the Nuggets out West, it’s Cleveland who is firmly second in net rating behind only the Celtics. (Third-place Denver is closer to sixth than third.) The problem is experience. The Cavs haven’t played in big games together yet, and I think that will be an issue compared to the rest of the conference’s contenders.
8. Grizzlies
After an 11-game win streak earlier this year, Memphis is only 5–10 since Jan. 18. Not exactly inspiring. Even before then I had questions about this team’s halfcourt offense and how it will hold up in the postseason. I would have liked to see the Grizzlies take a bigger swing at the trade deadline than Luke Kennard, a shooter who doesn’t really shoot enough. The supporting cast still feels thin.
7. Warriors
Stephen Curry has been so good when he’s been on the floor this year. He’s set to return to injury soon, and he’ll be joining a Klay Thompson who looks all the way back on the offensive side of the ball. This team has been through too many battles for me to put them any lower on this list. In fact, I’m nervous about putting them this low. The depth is shaky. They desperately need a healthy Gary Payton II for the playoffs. But if you’re a fan of another Western Conference team, do you really want your squad responsible for trying to knock out Steph, Klay, and Draymond Green? Historically, that’s been a near-impossible task when all three are healthy.
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6. Clippers
Kawhi Leonard is playing more and more like the player who was dominant in both the 2019 and 2021 playoffs, the latter of which had solid title potential until he got hurt. His health is tantamount to the Clips’ chances, and recently Leonard has seemed comfortable with an increased workload. This team’s depth is a double-edged sword, though. Rotations shorten come playoff time. Does Ty Lue know without a doubt the right combinations to play in big moments? Will Russell Westbrook still be starting? At some point, it would be nice to see this group put together a sustained run of success. Until then, I’m a little cooler on them than many of my colleagues.
5. 76ers
Philly may be higher on this list if it didn’t have to deal with two juggernauts in the conference. The James Harden-Joel Embiid pick and roll remains one of the most lethal actions in the game. And after a so-so early start to the season (by his standards), Embiid has picked up his play considerably on the defensive end of the floor the last few months. P.J. Tucker’s value goes up in the postseason, and the role players have been generally solid here. Still, the Sixers haven’t shown they can go to the heights the Bucks and Celtics have. It will be tough for them to overcome that massive hurdle.
4. Suns
We still haven’t seen Kevin Durant on the floor, but I have the Suns fourth here. If KD and Chris Paul can stay healthy, it’s hard to see this team losing. The wing depth is actually solid, and Deandre Ayton has had great playoff moments in the past. Counting on Durant and Paul to stay on the floor for four rounds is a dicey proposition, though. And time is running out for this team to properly gel before a deep run. That’s why Phoenix ends up behind the other squads on this list.
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3. Nuggets
No. 1 in the West. No. 3 in net rating. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray have played in big playoff games together. And the role players are all thriving playing off Joker. People will question Denver’s defense, even though it’s played at a top-10 efficiency with Jokic on the floor. (The offense has been historically good when he is on the court. It’s unstoppable.) The Nuggets have all the ingredients to make the Finals. At this rate, it would be disappointing if they didn’t at least reach the championship series.
2. Celtics
Boston is the only team in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating. Their two-way ceiling is probably higher than any other outfit in the league. It’s very difficult to separate them from the top team on this list, but …
1. Bucks
… the tiebreaker goes to Giannis Antetokounmpo. For the first time in this season’s rankings, the Bucks top this list. Milwaukee entered Tuesday on a 14-game win streak. Khris Middleton is still not playing his normal minutes load. And the depth next to Giannis is now the best it’s ever been. Most importantly, Giannis is an MVP-caliber player who can take his game to a place very few are capable of doing in the postseason. Give him the current roster Milwaukee has, and it’s very difficult—even with the team’s offensive issues—to see how opponents will be able to match up with both him and the Bucks’ versatility.
