Out of 16 matchups on the slate for Week 1 of the NFL season, an incredible 10 games feature home teams considered underdogs by the sportsbooks.
Whether that was intentional scheduling by the NFL can’t be said for sure, but it does make for an interesting slate of openers with the potential for several upsets.
It also makes for a very difficult week of picks for bettors, because we know more than one of these home dogs is likely to find a way to win. But which team(s) will it be? I ranked all 10 of them by most likely to win, starting with No. 10.
10
Chicago Bears (+6.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers
The best thing going for the Bears is that the 49ers have a young quarterback with even less experience than their own. Unfortunately, though, San Fran’s old starter is still hanging around. So if things go south for the Niners — which they won’t against Chicago — they have a backup plan.
9
Seattle Seahawks (+6.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The “12s,” as they call them in Seattle, won’t be nearly as effective against their old quarterback coming home in his Denver debut, Russell Wilson. So unless Geno Smith morphs into a player we haven’t seen him be, the Seahawks don’t really stand a chance.
8
New York Jets (+7.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Zach Wilson is New York’s future at QB based on potential. But as things stand today, Joe Flacco might still be a better quarterback. Which is why Wilson’s injury doesn’t sway me negatively in this matchup. The Ravens should still win, but I give the Jets a slightly better chance.
7
Atlanta Falcons (+4.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
I think the Falcons are severely outmatched in this one. The only reason they don’t rank lower is because this is a divisional game, and weird things happen in divisional games.
6
Houston Texans (+7.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Everything I said about Saints-Falcons applies here. I only give the Texans a slightly better chance than Atlanta because of more continuity on offense. And their opponent is easing a new quarterback into its system.
5
Detroit Lions (+3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
This is another matchup of 2021 playoff team against 2021 basement team. Only the Lions rank higher than the Bears because I believe in the improvements they’ve made. And while I think the Eagles are one of the NFC’s best, it could take time for them to hit their stride.
4
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It may come as a surprise to some that the Cowboys aren’t higher on this list after being one of the NFC’s best last year, but I think they took a big step back in the offseason. If they prove me wrong about how good they can be, it’ll be something they figure out over the course of the year.
3
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
It’s easy to forget the Cardinals were a playoff team last season, but they were. And with a full summer to prepare for life without DeAndre Hopkins, they should be better prepared for it. They’d better be, because they’ll need to score a lot of points to win this one.
2
Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
The Rams might have gotten the top spot on this list if they were playing any other team but the Bills, favored by many to win this season’s Super Bowl. I do think the Rams find a way to start their title defense with a win in this game, but it’s going to be anything but easy.
1
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
The Vikings have all the offensive talent a team could want, which they’ll need against a stout Packers defense. Meanwhile, an already thin Green Bay receiving corp could be without top wideout Allen Lazard. This is a game Minnesota can win.
