Making playoff predictions this early in the offseason, before the draft and schedule release, is just asking for ridicule. But thinking ahead about my playoff picks in April was a good exercise to remind myself to look deeper at rosters, especially because I somehow ended up with the same seven NFC teams to make the postseason in 2025.
That likely won’t be the case, and there is no way I’ll allow myself to pick the same playoff teams when it’s time to make my projections after the schedules are released in May. (Minnesota Vikings fans enjoyed my post-schedule-release prediction last year.)
This isn’t men’s college basketball, where all four No. 1 teams make the Final Four. The NFL is like the old March Madness, with surprise teams routinely making the playoffs. There have been at least four new playoff teams every season since 1990, including last year when the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders and Vikings advanced.
Again, it’s way too soon to make playoff predictions with the season five months away, but it’s a good time to assess divisions after the bulk of free agency has been completed. Perhaps looking at how the divisions stack up before the draft will underscore how much the league has changed since the Philadelphia Eagles hoisted the Lombardi Trophy nearly two months ago.
Here are all eight divisions, from worst to best, as things stand now.
8. AFC South
It’s no surprise that one of the south divisions ranked last, but it was difficult deciding between the two. Ultimately, the AFC South took last because of the many unknowns and inconsistencies in recent years from the three teams not named the Houston Texans, the back-to-back division champions.
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans haven’t built a steady foundation, lack cornerstone players and are led by unproven head coaches. Titans coach Brian Callahan had a rough first year, but perhaps the combination of learning from mistakes, new decision-makers in the front office and a new franchise quarterback—probably Miami’s Cam Ward—can help Tennessee take steps forward in 2025.
The Jaguars have their quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, but he’s had consecutive down seasons since guiding his team to a surprise divisional appearance. Maybe new coach Liam Coen can help Lawrence put it all together and build a dynamic offense around the fifth-year starter. But Coen could have a steep learning curve, going from first-time offensive play-caller to running an entire team in less than a year.
As for the Indianapolis Colts, there was plenty to like about Shane Steichen’s rookie season as a head coach in 2023, but a disastrous second year from Anthony Richardson has made many forget about his productive Year 1. Judging from Richardson’s struggles last year, it’s not a given that he will have a bounce-back season, and there’s the possibility he will lose his job to Daniel Jones.
Even if these three teams close the gap on the Texans, who are far from being Super Bowl contenders, the AFC South will probably have one playoff team this upcoming season.
7. NFC South
The NFC South has been surprisingly predictable for a division that has come down to the final week the past few seasons. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers haven’t been as good since Tom Brady retired following the 2022 campaign, but there have been steeper drop-offs among the three other teams, leading the Baker Mayfield–helmed Buccaneers to extend their division title streak to four.
Kirk Cousins’s turnover problem hindered the Falcons from building a big enough lead in the standings last year, while the Buccaneers were decimated by injuries. Atlanta might have held off Tampa Bay’s late-season surge had it started Michael Penix Jr. earlier in the season. There could be a memorable Year 2 from Penix after three impressive starts to end his rookie season. If the Falcons land a standout edge rusher in the draft, they’re well-positioned to end the Buccaneers’ reign in the NFC South. But that won’t be easy because, unlike Atlanta, Tampa Bay added a top edge rusher in free agency after landing Haason Reddick.
The Carolina Panthers are also in need of defensive help, and if they find it through the draft, this division could turn into a three-team race come the regular season. Coach Dave Canales helped Bryce Young find his footing and established a productive offensive line and running game.
As for the New Orleans Saints, they might be sitting in the basement of the division if they don’t do something about a fast-aging roster that only won five games last season. It’s time for a new core group in New Orleans.
6. AFC East
This could be one of the most improved divisions in the NFL after a busy free agency for the New England Patriots and New York Jets. The Buffalo Bills are still levels ahead of their divisional rivals, but expect at least one new playoff team to emerge from the AFC East.
Mike Vrabel is now the head coach of the Patriots, and there’s a strong chance he’ll have a dominant defense from the jump. New England added Milton Williams, Carlton Davis III, Harold Landry III, Robert Spillane and a few other notable free agents to a defense that already had Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore. But the biggest reason why the Patriots are sleeper playoff contenders is the potential of quarterback Drake Maye, last year’s impressive rookie.
The Jets officially turned the page on two tumultuous seasons with Aaron Rodgers after signing Justin Fields, reuniting him with Ohio State teammate Garrett Wilson. Even if Fields continues to be inconsistent as a passer, his elite athleticism could turn New York into a balanced attack, especially with Breece Hall in the backfield. And expect plenty of toughness from a team led by new coach Aaron Glenn.
The Miami Dolphins are well set up for a bounce-back season if they can avoid the injury bug. But they’re going to need to find offensive line help through the draft to keep Tua Tagovailoa upright and allow him to connect with Tyreek Hill downfield.
5. NFC West
Some might think this ranking is too high for the NFC West because the San Francisco 49ers are projected to be afterthoughts in 2025 after letting several notable players walk in free agency.
But San Francisco could be a few impactful rookies away from competing with the Los Angeles Rams, who appear to be the early favorites after the splash signing of wide receiver Davante Adams. The 49ers’ offense remains loaded even after trading Deebo Samuel to the Washington Commanders. Ricky Pearsall, last year’s first-round pick, is in line to replace Samuel, joining the pass-catching group of Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle. Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey will likely make a difference after missing several games in 2024. And Nick Bosa and Fred Warner still play on a defense that lost plenty of starters last month.
The Arizona Cardinals, who started 6–4 last year, could continue to take steps forward under coach Jonathan Gannon, partly because of the splash signing of edge rusher Josh Sweat. But the Cardinals won’t be making the playoffs unless they get a better season from Kyler Murray, who struggled with the flow of the offense last season. And maybe this is the year Marvin Harrison Jr. meets his high expectations.
The Seattle Seahawks are the boom-or-bust team of the division. The Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp signings could go very well, or the two may find themselves on new teams come 2026. Either way, the Seahawks deserve credit for trying something different after falling short the past few seasons with Geno Smith and DK Metcalf.
4. NFC East
There’s a strong chance the NFC East could have the two best teams in the conference.
Even with the amount of talent the Eagles lost in free agency, they have enough depth and young playmakers to make up for the losses of Sweat, Williams, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and other key departures. The Eagles will probably again have the best offensive line in football—even if the league decides to ban the tush push.
The Commanders made a surprise appearance in the NFC title game before being crushed by the Eagles, but they might have gained ground on their divisional rivals by trading for Samuel and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Some might not be as high on Washington because of the defensive issues, but this elite offense hung 45 points on the Detroit Lions during a shocking playoff victory.
There’s a drastic drop-off with the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants. It’s tough to gauge the Cowboys because they had another quiet free agency and now head into the season with a rookie head coach in Brian Schottenheimer, who might not have been the team’s first choice for the position. The Giants improved their quarterback room, but Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston aren’t game-changing signal-callers. Nevertheless, New York could be a pesky team, which would be an improvement after a few dark seasons.
3. AFC North
The AFC North usually has at least one Super Bowl contender and often has the most physical teams in the league. But this division is a bit overrated because of the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Both will be playoff contenders, but the Bengals did nothing to address their laundry list of defensive issues, and the Steelers currently have Mason Rudolph as QB1 as they wait for Rodgers to sign. A signature from a signal-caller in his age-42 season probably won’t help Pittsburgh win their first playoff game since 2016.
As for the mighty Baltimore Ravens, the question for them is not whether they’ll make the playoffs, but rather: Will this finally be the year that Lamar Jackson gets them to the Super Bowl? Maybe that's an unfair question because Jackson wasn’t the one who dropped the pass on a critical two-point conversion in the playoffs. Baltimore could be an impactful rookie away from getting over the postseason hump.
The Cleveland Browns finally admitted the Deshaun Watson trade was a huge mistake—a big step for kickstarting a much-needed roster reassessment. But this team has too many holes to become a wild-card hopeful, even if Cousins finds a way to reunite with coach Kevin Stefanski or the No. 2 pick becomes Shedeur Sanders.
2. AFC West
This might finally be the year the rest of the AFC West catches up to the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won nine consecutive division titles. But even if the Chiefs make it 10 straight—which could happen after they re-signed Trey Smith, Nick Bolton and Marquise “Hollywood” Brown—there’s a strong chance the AFC West will get three playoff teams again.
The Broncos could have one of the best defenses in the league if newcomer veterans Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw stay healthy this season. But Broncos coach Sean Payton needs to find more help for Bo Nix through the draft. Signing tight end Evan Engram, however, was a strong start to ensuring Nix doesn’t have a second-year decline.
The Los Angeles Chargers still need wide receivers, but coach Jim Harbaugh continues to make this a physical team after the additions of running back Najee Harris and offensive guard Mekhi Becton. The defense could be better after a dynamic first season under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter.
Even the Las Vegas Raiders made strides thanks to the blockbuster trade for Smith. But the Raiders need to focus on the skill positions for the draft to give themselves a shot at competing with the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers in the stacked AFC West.
1. NFC North
It wouldn’t be a stretch to say the NFC North could be better than last year’s impressive group, which had three teams win at least 11 games.
The Chicago Bears won 10 fewer games than the 15–2 Lions, but they took care of the offensive line in free agency to potentially become a wild-card hopeful this season. The team traded for All-Pro guard Joe Thuney and reunited guard Jonah Jackson with coach Ben Johnson, the former offensive coordinator of the Lions. They also spent money to acquire Drew Dalman, the best available center in free agency.
The Green Bay Packers didn’t chase a true No. 1 wideout but filled two of their biggest needs on their talented roster by signing guard Aaron Banks and cornerback Nate Hobbs. If Jordan Love finds consistency this season, the Packers could enter the level of the Lions, who likely won’t miss a beat even with the departures of Johnson to Chicago and Glenn to New York. But Detroit, which signed cornerback D.J. Reed, could use another edge rusher to help Aidan Hutchinson.
Even after winning 14 games, the Vikings are a bit of a mystery because they let go of Darnold and will now likely turn to second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with a torn ACL. But, as we found out with Darnold, coach Kevin O’Connell and his star-studded roster will put McCarthy in ideal situations to succeed on game days. This could be the first division ever to have four playoff teams in the same season.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ranking Every NFL Division After Free Agency.
