The 2023 NBA Finals ended a little over a month ago now … which means it’s the perfect time to start considering who will be the favorites to take home the Larry O’Brien Trophy in ’24. In the four-plus weeks since the Nuggets became champions, the league has reshaped itself through the draft and free agency. Though some dominoes are taking their sweet time to fall (Damian Lillard and James Harden), let’s run through who would be my title favorites if the playoffs were starting right this very second.
Off the Board: Heat, Grizzlies
The Heat continue to angle for Lillard, but as presently constructed they are a worse team than the one that barely sneaked into the postseason via the play-in. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, will not have Ja Morant for the first 25 games of the season.
8. 76ers
Philly has the reigning MVP, and—for now—James Harden as well. As frustrating as this team can be, it did manage to come very close to knocking out the Celtics in the second round. While I don’t necessarily believe in the Sixers, a run to the Finals is not impossible if they catch the right breaks.
7. Clippers
My patience for the Clippers has worn thinner than Jake Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler. Losing Eric Gordon was sneaky bad. Retaining Russell Westbrook was actually solid. But we all know this team comes down to the health of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Is that really something you want to bet on?
6. Celtics
On balance, Boston is probably slightly worse than last year. At the same time, none of its competition in the East has really gotten better. I would not at all be surprised to see this team right back in the conference finals. While the Celts’ depth will be tested—will Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser be in the playoff rotation?—they have one of the most interesting starting fives on paper.
5. Suns
As effectively as Phoenix has filled out its roster with minimum contracts, I’m still not sold on the Kevin Durant–Devin Booker–Bradley Beal experiment just yet. If the team closes games with KD, Book, Beal, Eric Gordon and Deandre Ayton, who is the perimeter defender in that group? Who is making the hustle plays? Is Cam Payne really the only NBA-level point guard on the roster? Who among Payne, Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe and Drew Eubanks is ready to be a steady performer in a high-stakes playoff series? The top-end talent of this team is undeniable. Still, there are too many questions that need to be answered before I can fully buy in.
4. Lakers
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Los Angeles had a fantastic summer, buttressing a roster that finally started to make sense after last season’s trade deadline. There will be pressure on Gabe Vincent to maintain his high level of play from Miami’s Finals run, though, a level of success he hasn’t always sustained during the regular season. And as LeBron James enters his 21st (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!) season as a professional, I’m not sure we can simply pencil in that he will be fully healthy come winning time.
3. Bucks
This is basically a bet on a Giannis Antetokounmpo revenge tour, because the Bucks haven’t really done anything to revamp the rotation after losing in the first round to Miami. The last time Milwaukee had a humbling playoff defeat at the hands of the Heat, it came back to win a title. Ultimately, as long as Giannis, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez can stay on the court together, this team has an incredibly high floor. With the rest of the East not really making any threatening moves so far, I am willing to gamble on Giannis’s greatness.
2. Warriors
I don’t really know how to explain this other than I remain a huge Stephen Curry believer. I also think Golden State is leaning into Steph’s championship window in a way it didn’t last year. Chris Paul should provide much more consistent play than Jordan Poole. Dario Šarić gives this team some frontcourt flexibility it lacked last year. And the overall commitment to the core veterans should help ease the vibes after the Last Dance–esque cloud that hung over the 2023 team. And unlike all the West teams behind them on this list, I’ve seen much of this Dubs team actually win a ring together.
1. Nuggets
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Denver lost a couple of key pieces from its championship squad, and I don’t want to minimize that. But after all the wheeling and dealing so far this summer, ask yourself this question: Did anybody find an answer for the Nikola Jokić–Jamal Murray two-man game?
