AS action in the transfer window ramps up, Giovanni van Bronckhorst will be eager to rectify the issues that led to Rangers’ failed Scottish Premiership title defence last time out.
Among those problems was a lack of goals outside of a small concentration of central strikers, an area where Rangers have fallen short in over a number of years.
The Ibrox side have already bolstered the forward ranks with the addition of Antonio Colak from PAOK, with links emerging recently that van Bronckhorst is keen to explore a move for out-of-contract Derby County wide man Tom Lawrence.
Lawrence came through Manchester United’s academy, where he was handed his senior debut by interim manager Ryan Giggs in a 3-1 win over Hull City towards the end of the 2013/14 campaign.
With opportunities limited, the attacker joined Leicester City in September 2014, before being sent out on a string of domestic loans. He impressed sufficiently at Ipswich Town in the 2016/17 season, scoring 11 times and assisting just as many as Derby snapped him up on a permanent deal that summer.
Although injuries have often stunted his progress, the 28-year-old has become a mainstay in the Derby side. He has mainly been deployed on the left flank, although he is comfortable operating centrally as a support striker as his heat map from last season illustrates.
Goalscoring threat
Fundamentally, Lawrence is a high-volume shooter. The 28-year-old averaged 2.73 shots per 90 minutes in the English Championship last season – although with the caveat that he enjoyed minutes in a central striking role – which was fourth among wingers in the division.
The Englishman is very proficient at getting the ball out of his feet quickly in dangerous areas, facilitating a high number of shooting opportunities. Equally, Lawrence is capable on both feet, making him unpredictable to defend against.
The Derby man is an especially accurate shooter, finding the corners of the goal with great regularity. In the example below, he is able to create half a yard before releasing a curling shot at goal on his right side…
While in a 2-0 win over Sheffield United last term, Lawrence curls an identical effort into the far top corner on his perceived weaker left side.
Indeed, the Englishman netted seven non-penalty goals while laying on five assists for Derby last season. He also netted four times from the penalty spot.
The proportion of Derby’s average shots per 90 minutes taken solely by Lawrence last season makes for interesting reading. The Rams took 8.89 attempts at goal per 90 last term, with the Englishman responsible for roughly 30% of his side’s total shots.
Even from historically low probability locations such as the example below, Lawrence shoots with power and accuracy. Remarkably, the 28-year-old scored 11 goals from 38 shots on target last season.
It helps explain why Lawrence has been trusted on set-piece duties for the Rams. As a cultured striker of the ball, he makes life incredibly difficult for goalkeepers.
Whereas most players in the instance below would take the ball closer to goal before pulling the trigger, the Englishman gets his shot off early. The pace on the ball essentially beats the Nottingham Forest goalkeeper before he has the time to plant his feet.
Although Derby boasted the sixth-highest possession share under Wayne Rooney in the 2021/22 campaign, converting ownership of the ball into high-quality chances proved elusive. The Rams ended last season with the fifth-lowest xG in the division.
It’s therefore fair to contend that, with better support from those behind him, Lawrence’s goalscoring could go up another level. Even in crowded areas in the final third, he has consistently shown an ability to create – and execute – shooting chances.
Off the ball, the 28-year-old is proficient at ‘ghosting in’ at the far post. In the example below, he bides his team at the back post as the opposite winger drives to the byline.
Although he doesn’t receive the initial cut-back, his positioning allows him to follow in to convert the rebound.
Creativity
Despite being dangerous in front of goal, Lawrence is certainly not a high-volume carrier of the ball in the mould of Ryan Kent, ranking around league average for dribbles per 90 minutes in the English Championship last season.
It explains why he tends to take up central areas, preferring to shoot or pass in the final third rather than penetrating the opposition’s defensive line with direct dribbling actions.
Despite this, Lawrence possesses nimble feet, capable of jinking inside using similar qualities as to how he consistently gets shots away at goal. As he shapes to shoot in the example below, the defender flies into a tackle in an attempt to block the shot.
However, the 28-year-old intelligently drags the ball back, creating the space to tee up a teammate for a simple near-post finish.
Lawrence is at his best cutting in off the left-hand side, opening up optimal angles for his accurate – and often curled – finishes. However, it is an area of the pitch that Kent currently inhabits.
Even if an acceptable offer was to arrive for the former Liverpool man in the Ibrox inbox this summer, van Bronckhorst would ideally be seeking a more dynamic replacement. Lawrence isn’t going to terrorise defenders with direct dribbling and, despite Kent’s modest goal output, his ability to stretch opposing defences is crucial for Rangers’ overall attacking play.
Despite this, Lawrence would evidently address the goalscoring problem that currently exists behind the central striker at Rangers. At 28, he has a proven track record in shouldering the goalscoring burden of a team, highlighting his capacity to sustain his threat in front of goal.
Available on a free after the expiration of his Derby contract, and dependent on wages, Lawrence could represent a shrewd addition.
