The end of the World Series means the start of free agency. Insert the corny little dad joke about, “Now the work begins for the Rangers.”
But let’s face it, when you’ve suffered through six consecutive losing seasons, changed chief baseball executives and managers and are still in the market for a pitching coach, when exactly does the work stop?
Free agency is just the next box — albeit the most expensive one — for the Rangers to check.
They have significant needs in the rotation. Owner Ray Davis has made it clear he’d like to add a bat as well. And the bullpen could use some tidying up, too. It remains a lot. That’s why we are here, to help.
We sorted through starting pitching options and a handful of seemingly attractive left-handed hitting options to fill the void in the lineup. All it takes is money. With that in mind, here are some quick questions and answers about free agency and a guide to potential primary targets:
What are the Rangers primary needs?
Starting pitching and more starting pitching. The Rangers ranked 25th of 30 teams in rotation ERA (4.63) and 29th of 30 in walk percentage by starters (9.2). They need more strikes and more innings from the starters. Bruce Bochy is a master of managing the bullpen, but not even Criss Angel can pull an effective relief corps magically from an overworked bullpen.
They need at least two starters to go with Jon Gray. That would give them three, give Dane Dunning an inside track on the No. 4 spot and leave the No. 5 spot open for competition. There are scenarios, though, in which adding three starters might make sense.
Not until the starting pitching is shored up can the Rangers really address their other needs. A bat is next. Then finishing out the bullpen.
How much do they have available to spend?
Better question: How much do they need to spend? The Rangers’ payroll, after incentive bonuses, was $164.3 million in 2022, which ranked 14th. They have roughly $92 million in commitments to a handful of players for 2023. Figure another $12 million each for pre-arb and arb-eligible players and that takes you to about $115 million in commitments.
The best way to sum this up is to look at the playoff field this year: The average payroll for the 12 teams that made the postseason was $197.9 million; for those that advanced to the Division Series it was $204.5 million. The four teams that remained for the LCS averaged $237.7 million in payroll. Bottom line: You want to be a playoff team, you better be prepared to push $200 million in payroll. The Rangers need to be willing to jump the payroll by nearly $40 million from 2022 to get there; that would mean spending up to $80 million or more.
What does $80 million buy you these days?
The going rate for a solid mid-rotation starting pitcher is probably somewhere between $13-17 million per season. So figure two solid starters with a money left over to throw at a bat and a couple of relievers. And maybe a notable locally-born-and-raised exception.
Will they spend it?
When asked specifically about getting to $200 million or above, Davis demurred. As would be expected. He cited that the two highest payrolls in baseball (the Mets and Dodgers) didn’t advance as far as the LCS. No, but they did make the playoffs. The playoffs are like the lottery. Your chances of winning may be slim, but you’ve still got to fork over the money to get a ticket first. Davis did follow up by saying he wanted to do what was necessary to make it a competitive team.
So with that in mind, here’s a look at some potential options for the Rangers:
The Big Ticket Guys
You are talking about $30 million or more per year. Emphasis on “or more.” Both these guys have big deals and opt outs and are expected to use the opt outs to get even bigger deals.
— RHP Jacob deGrom: A back-to-back Cy Young Award winner in 2018-19, deGrom has pitched a total of just 224 innings the last three years due to injury. But here’s what you get: The best fastball among starters in the game (99.1 mph over the last two years) and exceptional control (a 3.4% walk rate in the same time). Consider Max Scherzer, the Mets spent $43 million for 23 starts from Scherzer in 2022. He was dominant in those starts. deGrom, who turns 35 next year, is in the same class. He’d be the fit if you needed one starter. The Rangers need more. They probably can’t afford to spend all of their free-agent dollars on one guy. The needs are too numerous.
— LHP Carlos Rodón: He had Tommy John surgery in 2019 and came back to make four tune-up outings in pandemic-shortened. Since then, a 2.67 ERA, 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings and the fourth-best ERA+ (156) in baseball built on a 95-mph fastball and a sharp slider. Rodón was scheduled to make $22 million in 2023 if he didn’t exercise the opt out. Figure he’s going to be due close to a 50% raise per year. While he might make less in AAV than deGrom, he will also be pitching at age 30 next year, which means he’s likely to command a longer-term deal. Like deGrom, he’s a better fit if he’s the only need.
— RHP Justin Verlander: He’s likely to opt out of the final year of his deal in Houston in search of a longer-term deal at more than the $25 million he was due to make. And nobody is begrudging him that even though he will turn 40 in February. He’s a Hall of Famer and he may continue to defy age another year or two. But it eventually catches up to you. His age and the AAV that would go with it just make it unrealistic.
The real market
Since the need is for more than one starter, this is probably the bulk of their “real market.” These guys should fall in the $15-20 million average annual value range. They could potentially get two of these for the price of one deGrom:
— RHP Nathan Eovaldi: When healthy, his four-seam fastball is as good as anybody’s in the game, exploding on hitters at 96.5 mph and made even more difficult to hit by the fact he’s a true five-pitch pitcher. The issue, of course, is he’s often not healthy. He’s averaged just 99 2/3 innings over the last eight years. He’s coming off a four-year, $68 million deal and turns 33 in February. His stuff would play at the top of the rotation, but could the Rangers count on him to regularly take his turn? This team needs both ability and reliability to make the rotation work.
— RHP Jameson Taillon: The Rangers desperately need starters to better command the strike zone. Taillon, who turns 31 this month, is the best fit for that need. His 4.4% walk rate ranked 6th in baseball. That’s real. So are the 171 innings he’s averaged over the last three 162-game seasons. Though his fastball only grades out average in velocity, the spin on both the fastball and breaking ball put him in the top 20% in the game. Now, there are some concerning numbers in projection stats. The expected batting average and slugging percentage allowed were both in the bottom 20%. He also represents the vast gap between the Rangers and the contending teams: He effectively pitched No. 5 in the Yankees rotation but might slot at No. 1 in Arlington.
— RHP Michael Wacha: Like Taillon, he doesn’t overpower people, but good command of a very diversified pitch mix makes him effective. Wacha throws his fastball only 33% of the time and throws change-up almost as often. Wacha, 31, has had to sign a series of one-year contracts in free agency due to injury risk. He pitched on a $7 million deal for Boston in 2022 and responded with a five-year high in innings pitched. The problem, it was 127 innings. He’s averaged just 99 2/3 innings since 2018. Might be most attractive as a secondary pitching signing on a one- or two-year deal.
— LHP Tyler Anderson: The tech-savvy Dodgers appeared to unlock something in Anderson, particularly with his change-up, at age 32. Though he didn’t strike out a ton of hitters, he got good chase rates and soft contact. It led to a 2.57 ERA and 1.002 WHIP in a career-high 178 innings. It was more than two runs better than his previous career-best in ERA. So, the question now: Is he about to explode or was this a career outlier of a year? Somebody is going to pay to find out and it’s going to cost far more than the $8 million he received from the Dodgers in 2022.
— RHP Chris Bassitt: Over the last five years, Bassitt has the 15th best ERA+ in baseball among guys with at least 500 innings. He’s averaged 170 innings the last two years, which is the kind of workload the Rangers need to be able to count on from a free agent starter. Bassitt, who turns 34 next year, has continued to integrate an effective slider into his repertoire. Is he “too old” for a long-term investment?
The homegrown hurler
On the surface, common sense would suggest the Rangers could solve one issue, by re-signing their most effective pitcher before he reaches free agency. But negotiations are never simple:
— LHP Martín Pérez: At this point, it appears there is too much of a gap between Pérez and the Rangers to get a multi-year extension done without him testing free agency. The Rangers’ best option: Extend a one-year qualifying offer of $19.65 million within five days of the completion of the World Series. Yes, it’s likely about $5-6 million above what his annual average value would be on a two- or three-year deal. But it would also clear the Rangers of a long-term commitment, since the expectation is the Great Texas Pitching Pipeline will be pumping out prime product by 2024.
Pérez would have until Nov. 15 to accept or reject the offer. If he rejects it, the Rangers would be due a draft pick in compensation if he signs with another club. This is important since the Rangers could be losing other picks, as they did in 2022, if they are active in pursuing other players who receive qualifying offers. It also would leave open the ability for Pérez to test the market and still return to the table to discuss an extension.
The exception
For some things, the rules don’t apply. Call it the Kershaw Principle.
— Clayton Kershaw: Whatever Ray Davis’ payroll budget is, understand there is a separate pot of money waiting for Highland Park’s Kershaw if he decides to return home to finish out his Hall of Fame career. Kershaw, who will be 35 in 2023, hasn’t pitched more than 130 innings in any of the last three seasons due to a variety of injuries. But when he has pitched, he’s still been plenty effective. It may be difficult to define “championship culture,” but is not hard to envision it. Kershaw embodies it. He made $17 million to make 22 starts for the Dodgers in 2022. He’d be worth every penny of that and more to make 20 for the Rangers in 2023. They would see a bump in tickets for his starts and he’d be the necessary connection to the community the team sorely needs.
Batter up
Compared to pitching, the hitting needs pale. The Rangers lineup was plenty adequate to keep them in games and might have been even more effective with more reliable pitching. But the team ranked only 25th in OBP, which led to a below-league-average .696 OPS. One more bat could push them into the top tier of the league.
Where could that bat go? Left field, which has been offensively barren for nearly a decade, would be a perfect fit. Would help, too, if it was a left-handed hitter. The Rangers were 24th in the majors in both OPS (.675) and weighted runs created (92 compared to a league average of 100) vs. right-handed pitching. Here are five lefty bats worth considering:
— OF Joc Pederson: On the free-agent market last winter, Rangers chose Kole Calhoun for $5.2 million over Pederson, who’d played a vital role in Atlanta’s World Series run in 2021. Pederson signed for $6 million with San Francisco, then put up an .894 OPS vs. right-handers in 2022.
— 1B-DH Brandon Belt: It would also help if the bat could add to that elusive “championship culture” the Rangers are trying to create. Though the positional fit would likely require Belt to platoon with Mitch Garver at DH, he certainly fits from the championship culture perspective, having won two World Series with San Francisco and Bruce Bochy in 2012 and 2014. The San Francisco ties run deeper. Before a steep drop last season, Belt slashed .285/.393/.595/.988 over the previous two years when current Rangers offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker was the hitting coach in San Francisco. Also: Belt, who turns 35 in April, is from Lufkin and played at Texas.
— Michael Conforto: After he didn’t receive the kind of interest he’d hoped for in the post lock-out free agency frenzy, Conforto underwent shoulder surgery and sat out all of 2022. A one-year deal as he tries to re-establish his value would make a lot of sense for the Rangers. But, if he’s seeking a longer-term deal more in line with his career .824 OPS, that’s going to be a $20 million per year investment and the Rangers need that to go to pitching.
— OF Joey Gallo: Would a return to the comfort of Texas and the elimination of the shift reinvigorate Gallo? Every reason to believe it would. And at 29, there is plenty of reason to think there are still good years ahead. But it’s not so much the hits lost in the shift that have been the issue as the lack of contact on hittable pitches. Of the 213 guys who saw at least 1,500 pitches in 2022, Gallo had the third highest rate of swings and misses on pitches in the zone (10.6%). He batted just .197 on pitches in the zone, second lowest among that group of 213.
— OF Brandon Nimmo: What’s not to like about a guy who is not yet 30 and holds a career .385 on-base percentage, an .827 OPS and can play center field? Well, probably the price. You are talking about a multi-year deal for significant dollars. Given the pitching priorities, that probably takes the Rangers out of the mix here.
