It seems illogical to suggest that the Rams’ best chance of winning a game is by leaning on the thing they do worst, but that’s oddly true this week as they gear up to face the Packers in Green Bay. If the Rams are going to pull off the upset, they may need to feature the running game pretty heavily despite the team’s struggles in that department.
There are two reasons for that. First and foremost, the Packers have been atrocious against the run this season. According to Football Outsiders, the Packers rank last in rush defense DVOA. They’ve allowed the third-most rushing yards and the third-most yards per carry this season, struggling all year to stop opposing rushing attacks.
Pro Football Focus grades the Packers’ run defense as the seventh-worst in the NFL, too. Just about every statistic puts the Packers among the worst teams in the league in terms of stopping the run.
The second reason Los Angeles may have to lean on the run is the weather. Throwing the ball in below-freezing temperatures is difficult, and though the forecast has improved, the temperature is supposed to be around 17 degrees with 3 mph winds.
That’s not to say Baker Mayfield can’t throw the ball successfully in those conditions, but even he admitted this will be the coldest game he’s played in. As a quarterback, the best remedy for chilly conditions is a steady running game.
Cam Akers has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, averaging a healthy 3.9 yards per carry in his last four games. Kyren Williams also broke off runs of 8 and 9 yards on his first two carries last week against the Raiders, providing a spark on offense.
If Akers and Williams can keep the offense in manageable situations on second and third down, it’ll go a long way toward allowing the Rams to sustain drives and maintain possession, thus keeping the ball away from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense.
The Rams shouldn’t force the run against Green Bay, but successfully running it will give Los Angeles its best chance to win and pull off the upset. They’ll need Akers and Williams more in this game than they have in any other contest this season.
