It’s no secret that the Rams have glaring offensive inefficiencies, especially during critical downs throughout the game. However, just how bad the Rams are on third down needs a closer study.
Despite having veteran passer Matthew Stafford, the Rams have the lowest EPA per dropback on third and fourth down this season. EPA (expected points added) essentially measures how well a team performs relative to expectations. The Rams have the lowest expectation in the league to convert on those critical downs via the pass.
As a result, defenses have been able to stack the box in order to plug the run and have been able to take aggressive chances on second down in an attempt to force a pass on third down. Overall, the Rams are 27th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate, moving the chains just 33.9% of the time.
A Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford tweet pic.twitter.com/U0Soi3fxIc
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 21, 2024
These practices have stifled the Rams’ offensive output and until they address the root issues behind their inefficiencies, the problems will continue to plague the team.
When we look at these numbers and think about the Rams’ issues in the red zone, one would have to assume that when the field shrinks and windows get tighter, the Rams’ passing problems exacerbate. Pair that with Kyren Williams’ 3.9 yards per carry average in 2024 compared to his 5.0 in 2023, and thus the Achilles’ heel is revealed.
The Rams have a problem that gets teams knocked out of the playoff hunt. In 2023, the Rams used a heavy run game to open up the offense in the second half of the season. If the team can’t run effectively or pass down the field, maybe the screen pass – a play that doesn’t require a difficult catch and gets the ball away from the box – could be the key in 2024.
