Predictions of the end of Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign for the presidential nomination are premature, a senior aide insisted, as the biotech entrepreneur who enjoyed early success with a brash and aggressive campaign contemplated a final Iowa debate taking place on Wednesday night without him.
Tricia McLaughlin, Ramaswamy’s senior adviser and communications director, said: “The energy we’re seeing on the ground in Iowa is electric, and that level of turnout and excitement is far surpassing the cratering DeSantis and astroturfed Haley campaigns.”
Nonetheless, only Ron DeSantis, the hard-right governor of Florida, and Nikki Haley, a former governor of South Carolina, will take the stage at Drake University in Des Moines for a debate sponsored by CNN. The Iowa caucuses will take place on Monday.
Donald Trump also qualified for the debate but as with all other such events in this campaign, he has chosen to skip the contest.
Like Chris Christie of New Jersey and Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, two more former governors still in the race, Ramaswamy did not meet qualifying criteria for the CNN debate, based on polling results.
That threshold was “at least 10% in three separate national and/or Iowa polls of Republican caucus-goers or primary voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting”, while “one of the three polls must be an approved CNN poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers”.
According to the FiveThirtyEight.com polling average for the Iowa Republican race, less than a week from caucus day Trump is at 51% support, DeSantis 17%, Haley 16% and Ramaswamy 7%.
McLaughlin said: “The mainstream media may be quick to write our obituary but that’s because they’re oblivious to the facts on the ground. We’re going to finish in the top three. Mark my words.”
DeSantis is widely held to need to secure second place in Iowa or face dropping out himself. The primary next moves on to New Hampshire. There, FiveThirtyEight.com puts Trump at 42%, Haley at 30%, Christie at 12%, DeSantis at 6% and Ramaswamy another point further back.
Ramaswamy has certainly been busy in Iowa – he has pulled off a “double Grassley” by visiting all 99 counties in the state, a feat popularised by Chuck Grassley, the 90-year-old Republican US senator, but in Ramaswamy’s case doing it twice.
With the endorsement of the controversial former congressman Steve King in his pocket (as well as support from the YouTube star Jake Paul and OJ Simpson), Ramaswamy has maintained a punishing pace, this week’s schedule featuring seven events on Tuesday and another nine on Wednesday.
In video posted to social media on Tuesday, he held his son in a wintry Des Moines landscape, a car buried in snow behind him, and said: “We’re not going to let a bit of snow get in our way.
“My favourite part about being here in Iowa is meeting voters who actually care about this country and will come out no matter what. I’m the only candidate on the campaign trail doing multiple events today.
“… You know what? Can’t brave a little bit of snow, I think you’re not ready to lead this country. I want everybody to be safe today, do whatever’s right for you. Drive slowly, drive safely. It’s what we’re gonna be doing. But most importantly, we’re gonna have some tough conversations about the future of our country.”
Seeking to counter-programme the CNN debate, on Wednesday night Ramaswamy will be interviewed by Tim Pool, a rightwing podcast host, then will host an “after-party” with the conservative commentator Candace Owens.
But in a week that brought reports of beer-fueled campaigning meant to attract fraternity bros to the cause – “Free Speech and Free Drinks” events that NBC News said lured plenty of such students – Ramaswamy does seem in need of more than a shot of luck.
Rick Wilson, a Republican operative turned co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, pointed to what many think has been Ramaswamy’s aim all along: viral fame, and perhaps a place in a second Trump cabinet.
“Vivek only gained what he wanted,” Wilson said, using an acronym for Trump’s campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again”, when he identified that target as “notoriety in the Maga media ecosystem.
“He never had a plan to run or win, but he did have a plan to kiss Trump’s ass, and establish himself as a meme candidate.”
