Victoria’s opposition leader, Matthew Guy, effectively fired the starter’s gun on the state election campaign this week when he announced the Coalition would shelve the Suburban Rail Loop – the largest infrastructure project in the history of the state – if it wins in November.
After two weeks of negative headlines about a proposed donation scheme, which prompted the resignations of several key members of his team, Guy’s announcement seized back the initiative.
But it will be a marathon not a sprint to the finish line for the opposition, with political experts and the bookies giving it little chance of forming government in November.
Labor won the 2018 election in a landslide – or “Danslide” – securing more than 57% of the two-party-preferred vote and leaving the Coalition with just 27 of the 88 seats in the lower house.
To win outright, the Coalition need a net gain of 18 seats. Adding to its woes, it will enter the race in a worse position than it was then, thanks to an electoral redistribution that sees Labor gain two net seats, based on the 2018 vote.
Election analyst Ben Raue says the path to victory for the opposition is narrow.
“Even if we had a significant swing to the opposition, because they did so badly in 2018, there’s a large buffer for Labor. To even get things back to 50-50, that will require a lot of effort from the opposition,” he says.
Raue said recent poling shows the election is Labor’s to lose. The bookies agree – Sportsbet has a Labor victory at $1.25, with the Coalition on $3.75. (The Greens, if you were wondering, are on $101.)
Key to Guy’s success will be winning back Melbourne seats Labor took off the Liberals in 2018 such as Bayswater, Box Hill, Burwood (now known as Ashwood), Hawthorn, Nepean and Ringwood, as well retaining Pakenham (currently Gembrook, held by Liberal Brad Battin).
Further out, the Liberals will need to win back Bass and South Barwon from Labor and Mildura from independent Ali Cupper, where the redistribution should help. The Nationals will need to pick up the seat of Morwell following the retirement of independent Russell Northe.
Even if all goes the Coalition’s way in the aforementioned seats, they would still be eight off a majority, forcing it to head into Labor heartland – Melbourne’s north and western suburbs.
This is where many within the Liberal party have urged Guy to turn his attention, citing swings of up to 14% against Labor at the federal poll.
Courting them comes with risk, however, as the Liberals will need to fend off challenges from “teal” independents on the other side of town in the inner-city Liberal seats of Sandringham, Brighton, Caulfield and Kew, and the Labor seat of Hawthorn.
The electorates make up parts of the federal seats of Goldstein and Kooyong, which turned teal in May, but it’s worth noting the shift away from the Liberals began at the 2018 state election.
Brighton and Sandringham are now on 0.5% and 0.4% margins respectively, Hawthorn is Labor’s on a 0.6% margin, while the distribution sees Caulfield turn red by a 0.2% margin.
The safest of these seats is Kew on 4.7%, though outgoing MP Tim Smith is sure to have riled up constituents by describing them as “loud, entitled and privileged” and criticising the state Liberals’ climate targets and support for a treaty.
Raue anticipates that helping Guy is the fact independents won’t be as successful as they were federally in May, thanks in part to Victoria’s donation laws, put in place in 2018, which limit political donations from individuals or organisations to $4,210 over four years.
“The teals were up against a Coalition government federally, they were well-organised, well-funded and they had very similar policies. They were almost like a political party,” Raue says.
“[The then prime minister Scott] Morrison knew that wave was coming and he had opportunities to adjust for it but he steadfastly refused to adapt.”
In Victoria, it’s clear the Coalition has been preparing for the teal threat, recently announcing a suite of integrity and climate change policies, including a pledge to legislate an emission reduction target of 50% by 2030.
To win enough seats to form a majority, however, the opposition needs to develop policies that can appeal to voters in the inner city, the eastern suburbs, the regions and the Labor heartland all at once – a tough ask.
