Lots and lots of mail. Let’s dive into it …
From Michael Colitti (@ColittiMichael): What do you make of the Derek Carr situation in LV? Who are potential replacements if he leaves next year?
From John Richardson (@JohnIsaac55): How can the Raiders trade Derek Carr if his money vests after the Super Bowl? When can they start talking to teams before letting it vest?
Michael, what I make of it is the Raiders have a major decision to make three days after the Super Bowl (Feb. 15, if you’re setting your calendar alerts) on their quarterback. If Carr is on the roster on that date, his entire $32.9 million base salary for 2023, and $7.5 million of his base salary for ’24 will vest as fully guaranteed. And you won’t let that money vest unless you feel sure that Carr will be your starter eight months later.
… Unless, as John points out, you negotiate a trade first, which would be complicated. Yes, the Raiders could work out a trade well ahead of the beginning of the league year in March—like the Lions did with Matthew Stafford (January 2021) and the Eagles did with Carson Wentz (February ’21) two offseasons ago. But they’d have to have a trusting relationship with the other team involved to ensure that it wouldn’t pull out of a deal and that Carr is on board with the idea.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
And if Carr is traded or released? The two obvious options for the Raiders would be Jimmy Garoppolo and Tom Brady. The former could essentially take Carr’s place as a sort of long-term bridge quarterback (I’ve used the Alex Smith–in–Kansas City example before, and Kirk Cousins under Kevin O’Connell is another). The latter would be one heck of a leap of faith in the state of a roster that didn’t perform as well as team brass thought it would this year.
That said, the idea that Garoppolo or Brady could land in Vegas is very much on my radar.
From JT Barczak (@jtbarczak): If the Bears leapfrog the Texans for the 1st pick or stay within the top 3 picks, is there a QB (s) teams will trade up for? Is the gap between Anderson/Carter and other defenders too great for the Bears to pass one of them up if trading down too far?
JT, this is an excellent question—especially for a team such as Chicago, which has a quarterback and, thus, flexibility to treat the pick as a valuable piece of capital. And we can start with the fact that either Alabama edge Will Anderson Jr. or Georgia DT Jalen Carter would be a fantastic building block on defense. From a makeup standpoint, Anderson would be the safer pick, while Carter would have the higher ceiling, but both are universally highly regarded as worthy of top-five consideration.
Without having the benefit of everything that’s to come, I’d guess most teams will start this process with those two, then a gap, then everyone else.
That said, things can change, and sometimes prospects don’t pan out, and the Bears have a lot of holes to fill. So if they could turn the No. 1 pick into a haul and wind up with a left tackle (Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski or Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr.) or a lesser defensive piece (Texas Tech LB Tyree Wilson or Clemson DT Bryan Bresee), that’d be a pretty solid result.
Which brings us to the operative question here, and that’s whether the pick would be marketable. To me, getting real value for the selection would require a quarterback getting hot and separating himself through the draft process, whether it’s Alabama’s Bryce Young, Kentucky’s Will Levis, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud or Florida’s Anthony Richardson. Then, you’d need a quarterback-needy team picking second, compelling another team to move (the Texans would give Chicago that).
That’s one reason why I’m really looking forward to this stuff this year. There’s so much for teams to figure out on quarterbacks, and a perceived drop-off after Carter and Anderson, and all of it should make for some pretty intriguing story lines the next four months.
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From Donald Rickert (@donaldrickert): Is all of the criticism of Joe Lombardi warranted, especially considering the extenuating circumstances vis-a-vis injuries and poor o-line play?
Donald, on one hand, I know how NFL people, and Chargers people in particular, feel about Justin Herbert. When I did my annual poll of coaches and scouts in September asking who the top five quarterbacks would be at the end of the year, Herbert finished fourth, and was on the ballot, in the top five, for 52 of 76 voters. That’s the NFL telling you it believes that Herbert’s not just good, but elite.
The Chargers were fourth in total offense and fifth in scoring last year. This year, with left tackle Rashawn Slater down, and wide receiver Keenan Allen having missed a good chunk of the season, they’re 11th and 13th in those categories. And that’s fine, of course. But is it what you should be getting with Herbert—who has really good talent around him—even with the Slater and Allen injuries factored in?
It’s a fair question to ask, particularly because there haven’t been a lot of stretches over the past two years when you’d watch the Chargers and see them as that difficult to defend.
Remember, Brandon Staley first wanted to bring then Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell with him to run the Chargers’ offense. Staley saw what that scheme could do working with Sean McVay in his year with the Rams. So would it makes sense to try and poach, say, Rams pass-game coordinator Zac Robinson or Bobby Slowik from San Francisco, or see whether you could use play-calling to lure Wes Phillips from Minnesota? If it were me, I’d consider those ideas against keeping Lombardi.
Chuck Cook/USA TODAY Sports
From Big Smitty (@darbywisdom): What’s your guess on compensation New Orleans might receive for Sean Payton?
Big Smitty, we’ve got a little history for you here:
• The Patriots traded Bill Parcells to the Jets in 1997 for ’97 third- and fourth-round picks, a ’98 second-rounder and a ’99 first-rounder, plus a $300,000 donation to a team charity.
• The Packers traded Mike Holmgren to the Seahawks in 1999 for a ’99 second-rounder.
• The Jets traded Bill Belichick to the Patriots in 2000 for that year’s first-round pick, and fourth- and seventh-round picks in ’01, with an ’01 fifth-rounder and ’02 seventh-rounder going back to New England with Belichick.
• The Raiders traded Jon Gruden to the Buccaneers in 2002 for first-round picks in ’02 and ’03, second-round picks in ’02 and ’04, and $8 million in cash.
• The Jets traded Herm Edwards to the Chiefs in 2006 for a ’06 fourth-round pick.
This, of course, can help you draw two conclusions. One, it’s been a long time since there’s been a trade for a coach. And, second, compensation is all over the map—and is dictated by the circumstances (desirability of the coach, time left on the contract, state of the team trading the coach, relationship between the teams trading, etc.). Which makes it tough to come up with the bones of a trade for someone like Payton.
Is he desirable? Yes. Was there time left on the last deal he signed? Yes, five years. And as for the team trading the coach, right now, it looks like they’re at the end of a run with a really good core of players, with some of those guys (Terron Armstead, Marcus Williams, Drew Brees) already having left. That leaves the relationship between the Saints and whoever wants Payton to dictate the rest. But I’d think GM Mickey Loomis wouldn’t want to look like he’s giving Payton away.
Maybe to the point where … he’d try to hire him again? We’ll see.
From Pete Crespo (@Petedelaware1): Hey Albert, Wilks has the @Panthers playing very competitive ball with limited production from the QB spot. Does he have a real chance to keep this job? Do you see them address the QB in FA since they are a team that can win now, or grab a new franchise QB in the draft?
Pete, I’m starting to think Wilks has a very legitimate chance to keep the Panthers’ job, build a staff of his own and get a real shot this time at being an NFL head coach. Owner David Tepper is well aware of the job that Wilks has done in uniting the locker room and building a real identity for the team—Carolina’s run game has emerged as one of the NFL’s best over the past two months, and did it after Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers. And the defense was already really good.
The other thing here is the Panthers—when they fired Matt Rhule—resisted the urge to deal off veterans ahead of the trade deadline. They believed the coaching job there could be sold as one that, with core guys such as DE Brian Burns, CB Jaycee Horn, DT Derrick Brown, WR D.J. Moore and OT Ickey Ekwonu on hand, really is just a quarterback away.
So if you feel that way, and you see what Wilks is doing, having won three of four and four of seven, wouldn't it make sense to keep him? I personally think it would, and I’m starting to think Tepper is seriously considering it, too. I think with some tweaks—one could be bringing someone such as Eagles quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson aboard to help run the offense—Wilks could really have the Panthers hitting the ground running in 2023.
From Mr.BRegman (@bsr5973): Assess percentage of Patricia returning. And candidates beyond O’Brien?
B-Reg, I think Matt Patricia will be back on the Patriots’ staff in 2023, and the question will be in what capacity. I’d guess it’s less than 50-50 that he’s calling offensive plays. I think the Krafts will have who calls plays at the top of their list of things to discuss after the season with Belichick. So, yeah, it’s going to be addressed.
Bill O’Brien is definitely a consideration as offensive coordinator for all the obvious reasons—his experience calling plays, his background in the Patriots’ offense, his diversity of experience now and so on and so forth. I can also say that Alabama is at the very least exploring its options on replacing O’Brien as its OC, with O’Brien having a desire to get back to the NFL. The next question, then, would be his options.
He could be a consideration for Titans coach Mike Vrabel—with whom he’s close—if Vrabel decides to move on from OC Todd Downing. My understanding is the Raiders would have interest in O’Brien, too (O’Brien and coach Josh McDaniels are also close), if not the perfect spot yet on a full staff. So it may not be New England or bust for O’Brien.
Last year, for what it’s worth, I think O’Brien would’ve had an interest in going back to his home state, but he was never going to push that, understanding that any such deal would have to be brokered by Belichick and Alabama coach Nick Saban on their own, and not at the urging of an assistant coach looking to move. And at that point, having dealt with a lot of attrition already, Belichick was wary of O’Brien’s using the job as a one-year springboard back to another shot at being an NFL head coach.
Now? Well, Belichick has a bit of a mess to clean up, and O’Brien is the best guy to clean it up. So if it’s me? Go get him, regardless of what it might mean a year or two down the line.
Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports
From CleXgen (@CleXGen): What are you hearing about how players in Denver really feel about Russell Wilson?
Cle, I don’t think he’s in a great place in that locker room, but that’s not really anything new. He’s never been overly popular with, or relatable to, teammates. That goes back to college. The difference now is he’s been afforded superstar amenities on top of his high-end contract, and those are things teammates can grow to resent if said quarterback’s not playing at a high level and isn’t doing all he can to build relationships with them.
Aaron Rodgers may be a little, well, different, but ask Davante Adams or David Bakhtiari or Aaron Jones or Randall Cobb what they think of the guy, and they love him. Tom Brady may come off as distant and unapproachable, but ask pretty much any Buccaneers player and they’ll say that, in the building, he’s as normal as they come. And, obviously, the pelts those guys have on the wall put them beyond reproach.
Right now, Wilson really has neither thing—performance or popularity—going for him, and that’s a tough place to be as a teammate. Which is why, regardless of who the Broncos’ next coach is, Wilson’s got a lot of work ahead of him when it comes to his place in that locker room.
From Ray Moore (@RAYbeingRAY): Does Michael B clean house in AZ? Something odd is going on behind the scenes in AZ with Kyler, Keim, Kliff, etc.
Michael, I don’t think owner Michael Bidwill will clean house, because, honestly, he never does. His dad ceded control to him in 2007. That year, the organization fired Denny Green as coach, but held on to GM Rod Graves. They hired Ken Whisenhunt to replace Green. Five years later, Graves and Whisenhunt were fired, but VP of player personnel Steve Keim was promoted to replace Graves, and Keim helped hire Bruce Arians. When Arians was fired, Keim remained, and he handpicked Wilks, then Kliff Kingsbury.
The pattern here is that Bidwill wants people he knows to lean on when the organization is going through significant change. And when significant change has been afoot, he’s clearly leaned toward maintaining continuity in his front office while turning over coaches.
With that as a backdrop, I’ve heard that Bidwill is seriously considering a sort of co-GM setup that would have VP of pro scouting Adrian Wilson and VP of player personnel Quentin Harris running the show. Maybe one would be the GM and the other would be EVP of football operations (that’s how the Commanders have such a setup arranged). Either way, that would put the two in the lead in finding a new coach—if Kingsbury goes.
As for odd things happening behind the scenes, I’d say that’s really nothing new in Arizona. Last year, a couple of routine wrap-up personnel meetings were abruptly canceled in the immediate aftermath of the blowout loss to the Rams in the playoffs, putting everyone on high alert. Most scouts and coaches were in the dark for the rest of that week. And then, somehow, two months later, the coach and GM had five-year extensions.
So I’d say a lot of things are on the table here.
From michael christopher (@Bigdogz1318): What’s the best answer for jets at qb next year and do you think they will get anything for Zach Wilson?
Michael, I find it hard to believe the Jets wouldn’t, at the very least, bring in competition for Zach Wilson. Just look at their roster. They’ve got steady veterans such as LB C.J. Mosley, WR Corey Davis, G Laken Tomlinson, DE Carl Lawson and S Jordan Whitehead. They’ve got rising young stars such as DT Quinnen Williams, CB Sauce Gardner and WR Garrett Wilson. They’ll have G Ali Vera-Tucker, RB Breece Hall and, with some luck, OT Mekhi Becton back from injury.
Bottom line, with all those guys returning, they can’t just sink another year into Wilson’s development. And with Garoppolo set to hit the market in March, there’d be an option out there that the coaching staff has background with from San Francisco.
Regardless of whether it’s Garoppolo coming in, it can’t just be Wilson and some backup next year. So I think if Wilson’s going to start for the Jets next year, he’s going to have to win the right to start. In fact, I think that’s probably the best he can hope for at this point.
From Jake Hamilton (@jacobthams): Urban Meyer notwithstanding, when was the last time a first-year head coach was fired before the end of the season?
The last first-year head coach not to finish his first season before Meyer and Nathaniel Hackett was Bobby Petrino in 2007. Petrino, though, wasn’t fired. The last one fired before the end of his first season was a guy by the name of Pete McCulley, who was dismissed on Halloween 1978. I dug up a news story from the next day quoting McCulley saying, “If [ex-Yankees manager] Billy Martin can be fired after winning a world championship, they could certainly let me go.”
Want some hope, Broncos fans? The Niners’ next head coach hire was Bill Walsh.
Another interesting note here: The only other guy who didn’t make it through his first year in the Super Bowl era, other than Hackett, Meyer and McCulley, was Lou Holtz. He was the Jets’ coach in 1976 and resigned after 13 games, saying in the immediate aftermath, “God did not put Lou Holtz on this earth to coach in the pros.” Two days later, Holtz was hired at Arkansas.
Thanks, Jake, for sending me down that rabbit hole.
From HennyGawd (@fliptexas210): Who’s best offensive right tackle in F/A that the Bengals could possibly pick up to help with depth since Collins is out for the season with a torn ACL/MCL ??
I mean, right now, coaxing 41-year-old Amazon analyst Andrew Whitworth out of retirement might be their best option. There are a couple of other guys in quasi-retirement that could merit a phone call—ex-Panthers and Bills OT Daryl Williams, 30, and ex-Packers and Chargers OT Bryan Bulaga, 33, are two more that come to mind. But at this point of the year, so much of that would come down to what type of shape those guys are in and how ready they’ve stayed. And even then, it’s tough to just throw someone in there on the line.
(For whatever it’s worth, Whitworth, an ex-Bengal, would be the best story.)
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From Michael Snyder (@soccerbeast515): Should Tua be allowed to return this season? Should/Does the NFL have the power/ability to step into team decisions on players returning from injuries and "overrule" a return to play designation?
Michael, I can’t say without knowing the specifics. But now, we at least have the suspicion of three concussions in a three-month span—with the situation in the Buffalo game in late September, the Bengals game four days later and now this. And that, to me—and I’m not a doctor, nor am I privy to the detailed information the Dolphins have on Tagovailoa’s health—would beg for a very cautious approach going forward.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the league gets involved. They know the optics here and understand the risk for the sport in general of the Dolphins’ playing him and how it would look if there was a fourth event in a single season.
So, yeah, just based on that alone, I bet we see Teddy Bridgewater starting Sunday.
From Chris A. Hopper (@hop57): Just how many teams is Jim Harbaugh going to coach next year?? Since you being a Buckeye fan links him to every job.
Chris! Thanks for checking in. I think, if you take a look, you’ll see I really haven’t been linking him to any job in a speculative way over the past few years. I understand what people think—but my job, and my career, is separate from my love for my alma mater (Ohio State), and how I root for them in college football. If I heard Ryan Day connected to an NFL job, I absolutely would say so. In fact, I’ve said in the past I believe Day will, in time, wind up back in the NFL.
On Harbaugh, he’s a fantastic coach, and his record with the 49ers (44-19-1), plus his recent resurgence at Michigan, makes him attractive to NFL teams. He’s always had an interest in getting back to the pros—from what I’ve heard—and, with his team’s recent uptick, the pros have gotten more interested in him again after a period in which that had cooled.
So, yeah, I think the Colts will explore hiring Harbaugh. I think the Broncos will look into him, too. I’ve heard both connected to him in making calls the past few weeks. And I don’t know whether he’ll leave Michigan this year. There’s a good reason for him to stay, and I can also understand why, at 59, he’d be tempted to go. We’ll see what happens.
Enjoy the College Football Playoff. I’m going to try to.
