All offseasson Antonio Pierce talked about the Raiders being a run first team. About establishing the ground game and winning in the trenches. And I think he honestly believed that was how this team was going to function.
Pierce told no tales that weren’t true about the identity of his team. They were going to rely on the strength of their defense with the goal on offense to make teams respect their ground game and build the offense around that.
Unfortunately that ground game has been non-existent. In fact, it’s been less than non-existent. It’s been a net negative for the offense.
The EPA per rush number (-0.64) is the worst for any offense in Weeks 1 and 2 this millennium. https://t.co/zHkrNoY7aO
— Austin Gayle (@austingayle_) September 16, 2024
As Austin Gayle points out, the Raiders EPA per rush number of -0.64 is the worst since at least the turn of the century. And yet, somehow, they are coming off a win. Against a tough Ravens team at that. Make it make sense.
These poor rushing numbers doomed them in the season opener. They scored just ten points in the game, and only got one first down on the ground all game long.
The team pumped up Gardner Minshew’s 75% completions, but they didn’t mention his palty 4.5 air yards per completion (worst in the NFL among starters week one).
Week two in Baltimore began in much the same way. The Raiders couldn’t get anything going on the ground — a total of FOUR YARDS on the ground on SEVEN CARRIES — and had scored just six points.
Then something miraculous happened. Not only did they pretty much abandon the rush (combined two carries on their two touchdown drives), but Minshew began throwing passes down field. And the offense sprung to life, with the Raiders rattling off four scoring drives for a total of 20 points in the second half to pull out the win.
This clearly took the Ravens by surprise, but they aren’t alone.
#Raiders among the few teams actually running a pass-centric offense is not something I saw coming. pic.twitter.com/xQXw8XajHz
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 18, 2024
While 25 teams over the first two weeks are putting the ball in the air less than expected, the Raiders are one of just seven teams who are passing it more than expected. They are second in the league is pass rate over expectation behind only the Bengals.
The thing about it is, they simply have no choice. The offensive line is getting almost no push and the backs are running into brick walls. Meanwhile they have weapons like Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, and Jakobi Meyers and would be foolish to not utilize them.
From the looks of it, the Chargers and Ravens had so little respect for Gardner Minshew’s arm that they just loaded up to take the ground game away. And they say, they forced Minshew to beat them. One Harbaugh brother had success with that approach. The other Harbaugh brother got burnt.
So, the question is whether this is something the Raiders can sustain. Or will the rest of the NFL start collecting tape and catching on? And with that, will the ground game actually open up a bit as teams are forced to respect the pass a bit more?
Hard to say whether last week’s stunning offensive explosion will be a flare up or continue to burn. We’ll all just have to watch and see.
