Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Dundalk and Warwick for his four stats-based selections on Wednesday, November 20th…
DUNDALK 2.25
SHAADEN (system – Patrick J Flynn all-weather, won last time out)
Patrick J Flynn has a solid record with last-time out winners who are bidding to follow up on the all-weather, scoring with 12 of the 46 qualifiers (26.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £10.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.20, A/E = 1.46). Three of the last five qualifiers were successful, including 7-1 shot Just Any Eagle last week. SHAADEN broke her duck at the 14th time of asking in a course and distance handicap on November 6th and can follow up.
DUNDALK 3.00
SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE (system – Cotai Glory, geldings on the all-weather)
Gelded progeny of the sire Cotai Glory do well on the all-weather, landing 54 of their 344 starts (15.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £76.44) to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 42.91, A/E = 1.26). SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE appreciated the return to synthetics when scoring at 5-1 (from 10-1) for this column last week and can follow up.
WARWICK 3.20
OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS (system – Venetia Williams, handicap chasers in November)
This century, Venetia Williams has a 127 from 638 record (19.9% strike-rate) with his handicap chasers in the month of November and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £201.59 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 94.96, A/E = 1.34). OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS drew a blank over hurdles for Williams last term but would have needed time to acclimatise after leaving France where he had plenty of form over fences. The wind operation and first-time hood are signs of intent, and this 0-100 handicap chase won’t take a great deal of winning.
DUNDALK 4.10
ROCKBURY LAD (system – Colin Keane riding for Michael O’Callaghan)
Michael O’Callaghan’s ROCKBURY LAD is not the most straightforward and couldn’t strike a serious blow under his apprentice jockey at Dundalk last month, finishing an 8-1 sixth of 14 (beaten by just over two lengths). He won over 1m1f at Punchestown on his penultimate start and today’s 1m trip will suit better. Colin Keane takes the ride, and he has a 41 from 171 record when booked by this yard (24%) for a profit of £33.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 29.53, A/E = 1.39).
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
- Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
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