Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found Ludlow winner DESPEREAUX on Wednesday and has three stats-based picks on Thursday, December 5th…
WINCANTON 12.35
NO NO TANGO (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers in handicaps)
Harry Derham has an amazing record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially in handicap company. He’s scored with 15 of the 31 qualifiers for a profit of £41.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.65, A/E = 1.96). NO NO TANGO, ex-Charlie Longsdon, has leading rider Paddy Mullins booked for this amateur riders’ handicap chase and can defy a 395-day absence.
LEICESTER 12.55
JUKALA (system – Venetia Williams, handicap chasers in December)
Last month I frequently used the ‘Venetia Williams handicap chasers in November’ angle in this column and this is a system that can be followed into the current month. Backing the yard’s handicap chasers in December this century (prior to yesterday’s double) would have found 148 winners from 715 bets (20.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £88.55 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 115.55, A/E = 1.28). JUKALA fits the bill.
WINCANTON 2.05
GOLDEN MOVE (system – Golden Horn, first run after a wind operation, hurdles)
Progeny of the sire Golden Horn have a good record on their first start after a wind operation (albeit from a small sample size), landing four of their 11 starts for a profit of £20.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running in Class 2 or lower company were four from eight (+£23.50) and the Paul Nicholls-trained GOLDEN MOVE, beaten at short odds (8-15f and 11-10f) in his two previous runs over hurdles, could be worth one more chance now that he’s undergone wind surgery. He also sports cheekpieces for the first time.
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Related
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