Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew has found winners at up to 33-1 this week and heads to Kelso, Aintree and Doncaster for his three stats-based selections on Saturday, November 9th…
KELSO 11.38
GOLD DES BOIS (system – Sandy Thomson, second run for the yard)
Sandy Thomson has a useful record at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 15 of the 60 qualifiers since the beginning of 2017 for a profit of £100.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.10, A/E = 1.65). GOLD DES BOIS ran second at 10-1 in a Class 3 handicap chase on his stable debut a fortnight ago and can go one better now dropped to Class 4 level.
AINTREE 1.30
BOLD ENDEAVOUR (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+, speed adjusted)
Jumps progeny of the sire Fame And Glory need time and it’s often not until they reach the age of eight or nine that they start to realise their potential. Backing all those aged eight or older who were ranked in the top five on Proform’s speed figures (taken as an average across their last three races) would have found 76 winners from 443 bets (17.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £90.46 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 59.36, A/E = 1.28). Eight-year-old BOLD ENDEAVOUR, who has joined Laura Morgan from Nicky Henderson over the summer, will relish the fast ground and looks worth an interest in this Pertemps qualifier.
DONCASTER 3.10
ESTRANGE (system – Gillies’ Fillies’ Stakes, fresh angle)
Fresh horses tend to win the Listed Gillies’ Fillies’ Stakes and in the past ten renewals backing all runners who had been rested for more than three weeks, who had raced just once or twice in the past three months would have hit all ten winners (from 50 bets) and made a profit of £81.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. ESTRANGE could prove to be the pick of today’s four qualifiers (the others are Invisible Friend, Treasure and Sinology).
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
- Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
- See Andy Newton’s ‘Lay Of The Day’ daily horse racing feature
