Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found winners NO NO TANGO (evens) and GOLDEN MOVE (9-2) on Thursday and has three stats-based picks on Friday, December 6th…
SANDOWN 12.48
SMALL FRY (system – Gary & Josh Moore, Sandown, December)
The stable of Gary & Josh Moore target this two-day meeting and, this century, simply backing their Sandown runners in the month of December would have found 15 winners from 79 bets (19% strike-rate) for a profit of £20.87 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.47, A/E = 1.58). SMALL FRY, one of two they run in this juvenile hurdle, is better equipped to cope with the soft going than stablemate Galactic Charm and looks worth a punt.
SEDGEFIELD 1.45
CAVE ARTICLE (system – Christian Williams, long travellers)
Since the beginning of 2019, Christian Williams has a 42 from 171 record (24.6%) with his runners who were shipped more than 250 miles to the races and backing them all would have returned a profit of £11.93 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 32.65, A/E = 1.29). The handicap chases were 32 from 115 (27.8%) in the same period for a profit of £27.33 and CAVE ARTICLE holds solid claims in this 3m2f handicap chase (his yard also runs Prince Cleni).
NEWCASTLE 3.13
CLAYMORE (system – New Bay, second run since gelded)
Progeny of the sire New Bay have a useful record on their second outing following a gelding operation, landing 13 of their 48 starts (27.1%) for a profit of £46.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.90, A/E = 1.65). CLAYMORE would have needed his latest outing after a 176-day break and is worth chancing at a nice price to break his all-weather duck.
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Related
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