Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew gives you the low-down on the stats that matter across three races at Chepstow and Kempton on Friday, December 27th)…
CHEPSTOW 2.50
IWILLDOIT & JUBILEE EXPRESS (System – Sam Thomas, break-returners over fences)
Since racing resumed after lockdown in June 2020, Sam Thomas has done well with fresh horses and those returning from a break of at least 90 days have won 24 of their 121 starts (19.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £26.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 20.34, A/E = 1.18). In the same period the chasers were 13 from 45 (28.9%) for a profit of £47.03 (expected winners = 7.82, A/E = 1.66). The last two qualifiers produced a 25-1 winner (Al Dancer by ten lengths in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase) and a 20-1 runner-up (Our Power in a Premier Handicap Chase at Cheltenham). He has two qualifiers in the Welsh Grand National – 2021 winner IWILLDOIT and JUBILEE EXPRESS, both of whom should go well in this marathon test.
KEMPTON 3.08
FRERO BANBOU (System – Venetia Williams, December handicappers, recent run)
Venetia Williams-trained handicappers (hurdlers and chasers) have a good record in the month of December when race fit (after a break of 28 days or less), landing 75 of their 313 starts this century (24% strike-rate) for a profit of £81.53 to a £1 level stake (expected winners = 56.41, A/E = 1.33). FRERO BANBOU improved for the step up to 3m on good ground at Newcastle last time, landing the Rehearsal Handicap Chase in a fast time and can follow up.
KEMPTON 3.38
BIG BOY BOBBY (System – Alan King early-season break-returners)
The Alan King-trained BIG BOY BOBBY has been off the track for 629 days, but his trainer’s early-season break-returners have a solid recent record, and he may be able to overcome the long absence. Since 2020, backing his runners in the September to December period who have been off the track for 150 days or longer would have found 51 winners from 230 bets (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £46.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 33.99, A/E = 1.50). BIG BOY BOBBY only went down by a head when runner-up in this race two years ago and his full record over hurdles on right-handed tracks below Graded level reads 22F12 (1-5).
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