THE upcoming Spring Statement risks reducing the Scottish Budget, according to a leading think tank.
It comes as the UK Government is reportedly considering widespread cuts – including to the welfare system, with less support for the disabled – with Rachel Reeves set to deliver her Spring Statement on March 26.
Now, IPPR Scotland has told The Scotsman that this move could impact the Scottish Budget.
Casey Smith, a researcher at the think tank, said this was due to the higher caseload of those receiving disability and incapacity benefits in Scotland.
“There is a significant risk that proposed changes to the UK Government’s spending plans could end up reducing the Scottish Budget,” he told the newspaper.
“The expected £5 billion annual reduction in welfare spending on disability benefits will prove particularly difficult for Scotland. A real-terms freeze in the value of personal independence payments (PIP) will mean reduced support for people with disabilities.”
Smith added: “The equivalent to PIP in Scotland is a devolved benefit known as adult disability payment (ADP). Any freeze in PIP in the rest of the UK will lead to reduction in block grant for Scotland. Therefore, if the Scottish Government wishes to continue to provide ADP recipients with inflation proofed income, it will need to find the resources from elsewhere in the Scottish Budget or by raising devolved taxes.
“By supporting people who need help to receive the payment, the Scottish Government's approach to ADP aims to be less adversarial than the current PIP process. This means the case load is relatively higher and the gap is likely to grow if the UK government shifts to a more stringent assessment process for PIP.
“Scotland already has a higher case load of recipients of disability and incapacity benefits through Universal Credit than the rest of the UK. And, with a more rapidly ageing population, it is likely that demand in Scotland will grow faster than England and Wales at a time when the UK government is cutting spending on welfare.
"This will mean Scotland needs to dedicate a rising share of its own taxes to maintain benefits at their current value into the future.”
