A decades-long vision to drought-proof the arid lands of western Queensland has been abandoned by the state government, after an expert review declared the Bradfield Scheme completely unviable.
Since it was first introduced in 1938, various governments have floated different versions of Dr John Bradfield's ambitious plan to transform the west into a horticultural hotspot.
But they've never proven economically or environmentally sustainable.
A long-awaited report released by the state government has investigated the more recent versions of the Bradfield Scheme, and recommended giving up on it altogether.
"There is simply not enough consistently available water to make the proposals work," the report said.
"Without enough water, no Bradfield Scheme would work."
The scheme would have come with a $30 billion price tag
The state government spent nearly a year considering the report, led by renowned economist Professor Ross Garnaut, which estimated the scheme would cost "well in excess of $30 billion".
"You need those huge amounts of water to justify the expense that would have been involved," Professor Garnaut said.
Instead, the report recommends pursuing "Mini-Bradfield Grids" across four regional zones down the Queensland coast, closer to where the waterfalls.
Those four zones are:
- Tablelands-Cairns Regional Water Grid
- Burdekin Townsville Regional Water Grid
- Fitzroy-Rockhampton-Gladstone Regional Water Grid
- Burnett-Bundaberg Regional Water Grid
It also proposes linking the mini grids so they can compensate each other during seasonal highs and lows.
"We know more about the water resource and the many values that it contributes, including stability of environmental systems downstream," Professor Garnaut said.
The report also called for increased funding to research the value of water and land for agriculture, sequestering carbon and biomass for industry, and reviewing the cost of infrastructure.
His findings were backed by the federal government, which had commissioned the CSIRO to conduct a similar investigation into the scheme.
"Even under the most optimistic of agronomic and economic assumptions, the high financial losses, ecological impacts and community concerns with Bradfield-style schemes mean that such schemes are not viable," the CSIRO report said.
Katter enraged by the findings
A long-time supporter of the Bradfield Scheme, Bob Katter claimed his outback electorate would have produced billions in agricultural output under the controversial model.
He also slammed the CSIRO's findings even though they were commissioned by fellow Bradfield supporters, former deputy prime ministers Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack.
"How could you possibly come up with a statement that [the Bradfield Scheme] wouldn't pay for itself," he said.
"People like the CSIRO are nothing more than prostitutes, they serve the master that pays them."
Professor Garnaut said regions west of the Great Divide would be better off without the scheme.
"We don't think the Bradfield Scheme is the best way of even supporting development," he said.
"There's other things that can be done in those places with more modest expenditure that will have a bigger and better impact on real development than a huge irrigation scheme would have done."
Opposition spokesperson for Water and the Construction of Dams Deb Frecklington said the report was a sham.
"We know that the government decided to do this assessment based on the fact that it was never going to happen," she said.
"They have no plan for water security, they've not built any dams, the only thing that they have done in their term is rip down a dam wall."
What does this mean for Hells Gates Dam?
The former government had promised to spend $5.4 billion building the Hells Gates Dam in north Queensland.
The dam would have stored 2,100 gigalitres of water in the Upper Burdekin to become the biggest dam in the state.
But Professor Garnaut's report issued a staunch warning against building huge dams like Hells Gates.
"There is no economic, environmental, social or cultural heritage case for immense storage of water in northern Queensland," the report said.
Despite the warning, the proponents driving Hells Gates are confident it still has potential.
"Large scale is always [a matter of] definition," Townsville Enterprise Limited (TEL) chief executive Claudia Brumme-Smith said.
"We've done three years of work trying to understand the river system."
Queensland Water Minister Glenn Butcher also hasn't completely relinquished the idea of building large dams in the future.
"The Hells Gates Dam proposal is still a live proposal … Urannah Dam is still ongoing."
But whether Hells Gates can continue is a question of funding.
Mr Butcher said his department needed environmental reports into Hells Gates Dam before it could make funding promises, but TEL said it couldn't move further with environmental approvals without more funding.
"We are looking for help from the state government on this," Ms Brumme-Smith said.
It all starts with the Burdekin Falls Dam
The Queensland government has accepted six of the report's recommendations in full and two in-principle.
Mr Butcher announced the first stage as committing to raising the wall of the Burdekin Falls Dam, the state's biggest dam in the lower Burdekin River.
"Raising it by two metres will significantly boost the amount of water available," he said.
The dam usually spills over after wet season rainfall in January or February, but last week spilled for the third time this year.
It's currently at 110 per cent capacity.
