More than one in four GP posts are set to become vacant in England within a decade (Stock image)
(Picture: PA Archive)More than one in four GP posts are set to be vacant in England within a decade, a study has warned.
The Health Foundation called for urgent action as it published a forecast showing there could be nearly 11,000 vacancies across England.
It found the current shortage of 4,200 full-time equivalent GPs in England is set to rise to 10,700 in 2030/31.
This could mean that more than one in four of the 37,800 GP posts required to deliver pre-pandemic standards of care would be vacant.
Under a worse-case scenario, up to half of posts could be vacant and the projected shortfall could rise to more than 20,000.
It is feared that the shortfall could lead to a significant risk in the quality of care patients receive.
Ministers have promised to recruit 6,000 extra GPs by 2024 – but have admitted that they are struggling to meet the target.
While the number entering the profession had risen, this would be offset by the number of GPs retiring or moving to part-time working, the Health Foundation said.
Meanwhile, the think tank estimated there could be 6,400 nursing vacancies in GP surgeries by 2030/31.
Anita Charlesworth, from the Health Foundation, said: “England’s GP services are under huge pressure.
“It’s sobering that over the next decade things are set to get worse, not better, with a growing shortage of GPs and practice nurses.
“While these issues are not unique to England, it is critical that government takes action to protect general practice and avoid it getting locked in a vicious cycle of rising workload driving staff to leave, in turn creating more pressure on remaining staff and fuelling even more departures.”
GPs have threatened industrial action over a contract that forces them to offer appointments at evenings or weekends.
Under the terms of the contract, introduced by NHS England in March, doctors must make 25 per cent of their appointments available for online booking while also extending opening hours.
Medics at the British Medical Association’s annual conference in Brighton called on the union to “organise opposition” to the contract.
Commenting on the analysis, Professor Martin Marshall, chair of the Royal College of GPs, said: “The Government must act to mitigate these projections and ensure their worst-case scenario projections do not become a reality, which would be a disaster for patient care and the NHS as a whole.”
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “Numbers of doctors in general practice are increasing – there are record numbers in GP training, and over 1,400 more full-time equivalent doctors in general practice in March 2022 compared to March 2019.
“We have invested £520 million to improve access and expand GP capacity and we are helping to create an extra 50 million appointments a year.”
