Former Cisco CEO John Chambers has lived through the biggest technology trends over the past 40 years, from the World Wide Web to cloud computing to artificial intelligence. Another trend, quantum computing, was in the spotlight when Chambers, now a Silicon Valley venture capital investor and founder and CEO of JC2 Ventures, shared his insights into the state of the tech industry with Investor's Business Daily.
The timing was ideal. Chambers is familiar with and a veteran of disruptions, especially those that roil Wall Street where investors are constantly figuring out if placing bets on new technologies is worth it.
That's what's been happening with quantum computing stocks, which crashed after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang argued that the technology won't be "very useful" for 15 to 30 years. The comments sparked a sell-off in quantum computing stocks including IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti Computing.
Huang's comments have triggered a debate of sorts in the tech industry. Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, echoed Huang's opinion. Meanwhile, SAP CEO Christian Klein pushed back on the view that quantum computing won't have a significant impact in the near future.
Now, Chambers has weighed in. The Silicon Valley veteran agrees with the Nvidia CEO.
"I think it is a very important technology, but it is further out," he told Investor's Business Daily.
Chambers shared his opinion in the context of his own belief that the tech industry is in what he called the "decade of AI." He also shared his predictions for the coming year and his biggest concern about the fast-growing technology.
This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.
On Quantum Computing: Perhaps We're Early
IBD: What did you think of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comments suggesting that quantum computing is still a long term play, which triggered a sell-off in quantum computing stocks?
Chambers: Quantum has been around for seven or eight years. I've been watching really well-run companies — IBM as an example — very focused on it. And everybody has said it's just five to 10 years away.
We always see people get excited about technology and then realize it's further out. And then about the time you start to say it's not going to happen, it does happen.
IBD: That's what happened with AI.
Chambers: Yeah, exactly. I was pounding the table for eight years wondering if I was missing something here. That's where my investments were. All my money is into AI in terms of energy, resources and time.
I very carefully avoided the question on quantum computing earlier this week, and focused on AI as a transition. Quantum will really make a difference. But perhaps we're early.
I think Jensen nailed it. When he used the number of 15 to 30 years, I think that sent a very direct message.
I'm not smart enough or have enough detail there to say, is that five to 15, or is it 10 to 20? He's probably as good as it gets in this area.
So I'm still as optimistic long term on quantum as I was five years ago. But I do not see it in the short run. And his comments did not surprise me at all.
'Not In The Short Run'
IBD: I guess the question is: Will quantum have an impact on the AI trajectory in the short term?
Chambers: I think this is the decade of AI. That's what I said in my 2025 projections. You're going to see productivity of well-run companies grow at 7% to 10% a year, not at 2% to 3% a year.
If you believe those numbers, and I do, you begin to realize that AI will drive the stock market for the second half of this year and for the next decade.
This is where the stock market always gets it right over time. If you're betting on quantum, you're betting in a much larger window. You're probably thinking out in at least 10 years in terms of economic returns, in terms of products.
If you're doing a multiple for the company that can lead in the next generation, like Nvidia led AI and like Cisco led the internet, then the multiples will be very high for the potential leaders in that area.
Nvidia is a case in point. Broadcom is a case in point. AMD is a case in point. You're seeing the stocks move and support the very high expectations that people had in terms of AI.
You and I have seen this movie. I don't think that when we're together next year or the year after, we're going to say, "Whoops, John, quantum just happened. Now we're starting to see the economic return in terms of products and direction."
I think it is a very important technology, but it is further out.
'History Repeats Itself'
IBD: The Wall Street reaction, in many ways, is similar to the ways investors reacted to past trends. There was initially skepticism about the web, about cloud, about AI. What do you tell investors, since with some trends, it's not clear when it's going to pan out, and there will be surprises?
Chambers: History does repeat itself, just at faster speeds and more impact.
With the internet, when I started talking about it changing every aspect of our lives, people's eyes glazed over. Remember when Jeff Bezos talked about his biggest challenge at Amazon. It wasn't selling products virtually. It was: What is the internet and what does it do?
So these are cycles that repeat. With AI, when I started betting big time eight years ago, people couldn't even spell it.
Bottom line, AI is going to affect your job this year. It's going to show up on the profitability, not just of AI-related companies. Every industry will get major financial benefits if they execute right on AI.
Back to the quantum. If you're looking for economic returns in terms of products and the next five years, you're probably too far ahead of your headlights.
AI Moving Fast
IBD: One concern about AI you mentioned in the past is that it's moving fast — but maybe too fast in terms of the ability of industries and the economy to adjust in terms of protecting jobs. How has that view changed for you?
Chambers: It has only become even more important. Everybody was concerned the internet would displace a huge number of jobs, which it did, but it generated so many more that we were able to keep up with it. AI is going to move at a faster pace.
IBD: You also predicted train wrecks in AI. We're in Year 3 of the AI frenzy triggered by ChatGPT. The last time we talked you said there will be train wrecks just based on the way things go with these hot trends.
Chambers: When you think about it, it makes sense if you're going five times the speed of before and you're having three times the impact of things that used to happen in five to 15 years happening in one to two years.
There were a number of AI companies, and we tend to forget them, but the majority of unicorns who were unicorns in 2021 I don't think are unicorns anymore.
Not that people did dumb things. It's just that as a market, we move very rapidly. Execution is as important as the vision and strategy. And a lot of money is going into this, which means you're going to have very tough competitors as well.
And so you will see some of the train wrecks will occur because they just keep doing the right thing too long and didn't change.
That's usually the reason, with the Fortune 500, why more than half of them will turn over on that list for the next decade, in my opinion. Because they won't move fast enough. I think you're going to see, as AI goes mainline, many companies realize they're not moving fast enough.
I believe it's the AI decade and I think we'll see it really go mainstream by the end of the year.
IBD: What's been the most troubling trend? What are you most worried about?
Chambers: What I worry about the most is that countries, maybe even states, key industry leaders, business leaders, etc., and government leaders will not realize how fast this is going to change.
I worry that this speed and impact is going to leave a lot of companies and countries behind. And I think we all realize that people that didn't get the internet got left behind. This is five times faster.
