The Invesco QQQ Trust is on quite a winning streak and closing in on a record for bull-trend longevity.
The exchange traded fund — which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index — retook the 200-day moving average on March 13, 2023, and has climbed nearly 80% since.
With Thursday's close, that makes it the fourth-longest period in which the widely traded ETF has traded above the 200-day line. That's 454 sessions, to be exact.
Just 10 trading days and roughly 5% gains separate QQQ from the third-longest run above the 200-day average — the Covid bull market that topped in late 2021. The 80% current run is the second-largest gain since that Covid bull market.
The prolonged bullish trend can make investors wonder if the stock market is aging too fast. We haven't seen a 10% market correction since the 2023 bear market, another reason some investors may wonder when the other shoe will drop.
The QQQ ETF — which began trading in 1999 and is one of the most widely traded securities — had its longest stay above the 200-day line in a 590-session period from July 2016 to October 2018.
What QQQ Says About Stock Market
In most cases, the conclusion of a long stretch of closes above the 200-day line coincided with, or foreshadowed, a market correction, but not always.
In this relatively uncharted territory, investors should keep a close watch on the daily market action. Price and volume signals, plus the behavior of leading stocks, are the best indicators of market tops and bottoms.
IBD's The Big Picture and Stock Market Today are the best way to keep your finger on the pulse of the market.
With indexes at record highs, IBD's recommended exposure level remains at 80% to 100% invested. Don't be afraid to start positions in stocks breaking out with above-average volume from sound, well-formed bases. But the lengthy market advance is another reason to avoid buying stocks extended from buy zones, and consider locking in profits 20% above your purchase price.
QQQ Stretches Above 200-Day Line
| Start Date | End Date | Trading Days | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/6/2016 | 10/9/2018 | 590 | 65.86 |
| 1/2/2013 | 10/15/2014 | 466 | 37.46 |
| 4/9/2020 | 1/18/2022 | 464 | 84.48 |
| 3/13/2023 | 12/5/2024 | 454 | 79.51 |
| 3/13/2003 | 3/19/2004 | 267 | 35.64 |
| 5/14/2009 | 5/19/2010 | 265 | 37.95 |
| 9/25/2006 | 8/15/2007 | 233 | 13.14 |
| 10/17/2014 | 8/20/2015 | 220 | 15.14 |
| 1/3/2012 | 10/23/2012 | 211 | 14.92 |
| 6/4/2019 | 3/6/2020 | 199 | 18.93 |
| 9/8/2010 | 6/9/2011 | 197 | 19.97 |
| 10/13/2005 | 5/11/2006 | 151 | 7.83 |
| 10/26/2004 | 3/15/2005 | 101 | 3.41 |
| 8/17/2007 | 1/3/2008 | 100 | 9.31 |
| 7/8/2005 | 10/11/2005 | 68 | 0.45 |
| 3/11/2019 | 5/31/2019 | 60 | -0.45 |
| 10/15/2015 | 1/5/2016 | 59 | 1.52 |
| 5/25/2004 | 7/7/2004 | 32 | 0.38 |
| 1/26/2023 | 3/9/2023 | 31 | -0.23 |
| 6/27/2011 | 8/3/2011 | 28 | 2.83 |
| 5/18/2005 | 6/23/2005 | 27 | 0.51 |
| 10/11/2011 | 11/16/2011 | 27 | 1.51 |
| 3/25/2004 | 4/29/2004 | 26 | 0.84 |
| 5/8/2008 | 6/10/2008 | 24 | 0.29 |
| 3/29/2016 | 4/26/2016 | 21 | -0.35 |
| 5/24/2016 | 6/16/2016 | 18 | -0.39 |
| 7/22/2010 | 8/10/2010 | 14 | 1.97 |
| 8/8/2008 | 8/22/2008 | 11 | 0.36 |
| 6/10/2010 | 6/24/2010 | 11 | 0.62 |
| 4/29/2009 | 5/12/2009 | 10 | -0.03 |
| 2/22/2019 | 3/6/2019 | 9 | 0.39 |
| 1/2/2002 | 1/11/2002 | 8 | 1.84 |
| 10/12/2018 | 10/23/2018 | 8 | -0.6 |
Nasdaq Stretches Above 200-Day Line
| Start Date | End Date | Trading Days | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6/30/2016 | 10/9/2018 | 594 | 59.79 |
| 12/31/2012 | 10/9/2014 | 464 | 45 |
| 4/22/2020 | 1/17/2022 | 454 | 75.32 |
| 12/23/1994 | 7/12/1996 | 406 | 48.68 |
| 11/2/1998 | 4/13/2000 | 379 | 104.16 |
| 10/19/1992 | 3/28/1994 | 376 | 30.78 |
| 1/28/1991 | 4/27/1992 | 326 | 42.88 |
| 3/17/2003 | 4/29/2004 | 294 | 40.69 |
| 11/1/2023 | 12/5/2024 | 287 | 50.83 |
| 5/18/2009 | 5/19/2010 | 263 | 32.67 |
| 9/25/2006 | 8/13/2007 | 231 | 13.04 |
| 10/20/2014 | 8/19/2015 | 218 | 16.29 |
| 6/4/2019 | 3/6/2020 | 199 | 13.93 |
| 9/13/2010 | 6/9/2011 | 194 | 17.46 |
| 8/2/1996 | 3/28/1997 | 171 | 11.08 |
| 4/30/1997 | 12/23/1997 | 170 | 19.76 |
| 1/13/1998 | 8/26/1998 | 162 | 14.69 |
| 3/14/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 161 | 14.98 |
| 10/28/2005 | 5/15/2006 | 142 | 7.11 |
| 1/5/2012 | 5/31/2012 | 106 | 5.9 |
| 6/5/2012 | 10/30/2012 | 106 | 7.55 |
| 5/17/2005 | 10/10/2005 | 105 | 3.73 |
| 10/27/2004 | 3/21/2005 | 104 | 1.9 |
| 8/29/2007 | 11/20/2007 | 60 | 1.31 |
| 3/11/2019 | 5/30/2019 | 59 | 0.13 |
| 5/18/1990 | 7/20/1990 | 46 | 1.55 |
| 6/2/2000 | 7/26/2000 | 39 | 4.57 |
| 10/10/1994 | 11/21/1994 | 31 | 0.12 |
| 4/29/1992 | 6/8/1992 | 29 | 2.12 |
| 8/24/1994 | 10/3/1994 | 29 | 1.22 |
| 6/27/2011 | 8/1/2011 | 26 | 2.1 |
| 1/31/2023 | 2/28/2023 | 21 | -1.11 |
| 12/21/2001 | 1/17/2002 | 20 | 2.06 |
