How will a Russia in retreat react? Vladimir Putin's brand new military commander is foretelling the pullout from the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, the Kremlin's first major catch at the start of the invasion. If the objective is to subdue Ukraine on the battlefield, the signs for Moscow do not look great.
But if the aim is to make Ukraine unliveable, it's anyone's guess: for 11 days, Iranian-made drones have been targeting critical infrastructure like power stations, as retribution for the humiliating explosion that partially knocked out of service the main bridge link between Crimea and the Russian mainland. Can Putin make the Ukrainian population freeze this winter? There is also talk of Iranian medium-range missile purchases.
Russia and Iran have already allied themselves in Syria. The leadership in both Moscow and Tehran face strong headwinds at home: Russia with its botched mobilisation, Iran with the biggest protest movement since 2009. Together, can they ensure their mutual survival?
Produced by Charles Wente, Juliette Laurain and Guillaume Gougeon.
