As we bid farewell to another eventful year, it's imperative to reflect on the twists and turns that Ukraine's war effort against Russia has taken. With high hopes at the beginning of the year, Ukrainian troops planned a daring counteroffensive against their formidable adversary. However, the year concluded with disappointment on the battlefield, a somber mood among troops, and anxiety surrounding the future of Western aid for Ukraine.
In the midst of this ongoing conflict, we witnessed a short-lived rebellion in Russia, a devastating dam collapse in Ukraine, and the spilling of copious amounts of blood on both sides. It's been a grueling twenty-two months since Russia invaded, and the nation now holds approximately one-fifth of Ukraine under its grip. Unfortunately, the front line, spanning over 1,000 kilometers, has barely budged throughout the entire year.
But it's not just on the battlefield where the stakes are high; there's a political crunch reverberating across Western countries that have championed Ukraine's struggle. Deliberations over billions in financial aid have become increasingly strained. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be playing a waiting game, banking on the gradual crumbling of Western support. He anticipates political divisions, war fatigue, and looming global issues like China's threat to Taiwan and the conflicts in the Middle East to distract and erode the backing Ukraine receives.
Furthermore, the upcoming U.S. elections in November hold significant weight in determining the international political landscape. Ukraine heavily relies on the United States as its biggest military supplier. However, there are voices within the Republican party advocating for a reduction in support for Ukraine's war effort. Additionally, according to polls conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, nearly half of the U.S. public believes the country is spending too much on Ukraine. These shifting sentiments could potentially tip the balance in Putin's favor.
This year has undoubtedly been a triumph for Putin. Despite Western sanctions taking a toll on the Russian economy, they have not crippled it entirely. Russian forces continue to hold a firm grip on the battlefield, fortified by defensive lines featuring formidable minefields. These barriers effectively stall Ukraine's monthslong counteroffensive, which was launched prematurely in an attempt to demonstrate that Western aid could alter the course of the war. Alas, the counteroffensive proved to be a failure, showcasing the unrealistic expectations pinned upon it.
Nonetheless, Putin's path hasn't been entirely smooth. The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for him, accusing him of personal responsibility for war crimes and making it virtually impossible for him to travel to numerous countries. Ukraine has managed to recapture roughly half of the land occupied by Russian forces during their invasion in 2022. However, it will undoubtedly be an arduous task to reclaim more territory.
Both sides have dealt heavy blows and inflicted significant damage on each other. The Russians, unyielding in their determination, have resorted to sabotaging major infrastructure, such as the Kakhovka dam. The collapse of this dam flooded a vast area where Ukrainian forces could potentially have broken through, further impeding their progress. Nevertheless, Ukraine continues to strike back. Striking deep behind enemy lines, they have hit Moscow with long-range drones, targeted key bridges, oil depots, and airfields in Russian-annexed Crimea, as well as the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol. A stark example of Ukraine's reach was demonstrated by their ability to push Russian warships away from the coast, albeit not entirely.
While Russia has faced significant losses in terms of troops and equipment, its vast resources enable it to absorb these setbacks. Putin, who is rumoured to have secured ample ammunition supplies from North Korea, has allocated a record amount of the state budget to defense and increased military spending by approximately 25% for 2024-2026. Additionally, he has ordered a significant increase in the number of troops to over 1.3 million.
As we look to the future, Ukraine faces the daunting challenge of resourcing another offensive operation. Their troops remain motivated, but exhaustion is beginning to take its toll. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has relentlessly lobbied Western leaders to continue their support, acutely aware that it is the lifeline for his country. His numerous visits to Washington and the recent diplomatic victory of accelerated talks with the European Union regarding membership are testaments to his tireless efforts. However, Western support is showing signs of fraying, with proposals for additional aid remaining stuck in a divided Senate.
In November, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni inadvertently expressed the general sentiment surrounding Ukraine when she remarked that 'there is a lot of fatigue' regarding the issue. The pressing question now is finding a way forward and bringing an end to this ongoing conflict.
As 2023 unfolds, Ukraine finds itself at a crucial crossroads. The terrain is treacherous, and the path to resolution remains uncertain. The coming months will shape the fate of this war-torn nation and determine whether international support remains steadfast or gradually erodes. The stakes are high, and Ukraine's future hangs in the balance.
