Ukrainian service members fire a mortar towards Russian troops on the frontline near Vuhledar town in Donetsk
(Picture: REUTERS)A new offensive by Vladimir Putin within weeks in Ukraine will probably “fail in bloody fashion” leaving his army’s morale at risk of cracking and being defeated, the ex-head of the British Army said on Thursday.
Lord Dannatt believes that the Ukrainian armed forces, supplied with heavy weapons from the West, will be ready to launch a counter-offensive as Putin’s troops are “reeling” from setbacks on the battlefield.
British Challenger II tanks, and Leopard 2s supplied by other European nations, may be delivered in time for Ukraine to use to seize back territory.
Lord Dannatt told Talk TV: “We are going to see a fresh Russian offensive in the coming weeks and months, probably as winter eases in Ukraine.
“With the equipment that has already been provided to the Ukrainians and their own determination, that Russian offensive will in all probability fail, and probably fail in a rather bloody fashion.
“That’s then the moment for the Ukrainians to mount a counter-offensive, to strike while the Russians in a sense are reeling from their own imminent defeat.”
He added: “They will have to go with what they have got.
“It sounds as if from what we heard yesterday that British tanks will be available. Let’s hope that the Leopard IIs are also available to combine with the existing tanks, armoured infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery that the Ukrainians have either got or are being given to mount an effective counter-offensive in the spring.”
He stressed: “If they were able to do that with a sound operational plan, with their characteristic determination, and the weapons and ammunition we have got for them, there is every prospect that the very fragile morale of the Russian army will crack.
“When the morale of an army cracks, then that is tantamount to losing.”
The US has estimated that some 180,000 Russian soldiers have already been killed or wounded in Putin’s war which he launched last February.
Ukrainian forces are believed to have suffered similarly high casualty rates, with more than 40,000 civilians also reported to have been killed, often in indiscriminate Russian shelling or missile attacks.
Britain is now set to supply long-range missiles to Kyiv to force back the Russian army and is investigating whether any of its fighter jets could be supplied, though, military experts say F-16s from other European countries such as Poland or the Netherlands may be more suitable.
Ukrainian tank crews are being trained as quickly as possible in the UK to use Challenger II tanks, with 14 of them set to be sent to the battlefield.
Captain Sam Upward, lead for tank training of Ukrainian Armed Forces in the UK, told LBC Radio: “They are absolutely obsessed with getting on the platform and learning everything that they can do, and milking every bit of knowledge out of our instructors.”
Pressed on their determination to return to Ukraine to fight, he added: “They are absolutely obsessed with that, and working long hours.
“They just want to get these things back and defend their homeland.”
On a visit to Cornwall on Thursday, Rishi Sunak said: “I had very good conversations with President Zelensky yesterday about our ability to provide long-range missiles that they don’t currently have, which again are going to make a big difference in the struggle against Russian aggression.
“And of course, we’re talking about further support, potentially with aircraft as well. The important first step of that journey is to make sure that we provide the training for Ukrainian pilots to be able to use that very sophisticated equipment.
“And we announced yesterday that again, we’ll be the first nation to start training Ukrainian pilots on Nato-standard aircraft.
“That’s a really positive forward step and we will continue to stand by Ukraine because we want to see them victorious.”
Downing Street indicated that Britain will train Ukrainian pilots on fighter jets the UK has while also instructing them on Nato tactics.
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: “Obviously we can train them on aircraft the UK have. What we can also do at the same time is instruct trainees on tactics and procedures that all Nato nations use.”
Asked about the training timeframe, the official added: “What we are doing is exploring how quickly this can be done, particularly given some Ukrainian pilots may have years, albeit in Soviet-era jets that are very different to our own.”
The UK will work with Ukraine’s armed forces to understand their pilots’ capabilities to try and “adapt our training and get pilots up to full flying standard as quickly as humanly possible”.
No10 also stressed that the UK has an eye on the potential risk of escalation as it considers sending warplanes to Ukraine.
Asked about some western allies’ concerns that supplying jets could risk dragging Nato into the conflict, the Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “Firstly we haven’t made a decision in terms of UK provision of jets, we are training currently.
“The UK is in the process of providing Challenger tanks and we have provided longer-range capabilities as well.
“We take these decisions carefully and we do it thoughtfully. We are aware of potential escalatory risks.
“But throughout we have been confident the approach we are taking is the best and quickest way to help Ukraine end this war which is obviously in everyone’s interests. And it is Russia that continues to take escalatory action with their bombardment of civilians and continue their illegal war in Ukraine.”
Asked about the Kremlin’s warning that sending jets would illicit a military response, the official again stressed that “it continues to be Russia that is escalating”.
The Kremlin said it would be Ukrainians who suffered if Britain or other Western countries supplied fighter jets to Kyiv, and said Moscow would press on with its military campaign in Ukraine regardless of what arms the West sent.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “This is nothing more than the growing involvement of the United Kingdom, Germany and France in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.”
“The line between indirect and direct involvement is gradually disappearing. One can only express regret in this regard, and say that such actions ... lead to an escalation of tension, prolong the conflict and make the conflict more and more painful for Ukraine,” he added.
