Vladimir Putin’s retreating forces will be “vulnerable” to attack as they withdraw across a major river in southern Ukraine with limited crossing points, British defence chiefs said on Thursday.
They stressed that the Russian president had been forced to order the retreat, giving up the key city of Kherson, due to problems resupplying his troops on the west bank of the Dnipro River.
The withdrawal is a major setback for Mr Putin’s war in Ukraine which he unleashed on February 24.
It meant he will now struggle to create a “land bridge” to the port of Odesa on the Black Sea.
In its latest intelligence update, the Ministry of Defence in London said: “On 09 November 2022, Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu ordered the withdrawal of Russian forces from the west bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson, southern Ukraine.
“General Sergei Surovikin, commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, confirmed they will withdraw to defensive positions along the Dnipro River, citing re-supply issues as the primary reason for the decision.
“Russia’s ability to sustain its forces on the west bank of the Dnipro river had been placed under pressure by Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s resupply routes.”
The briefing added: “In retreating, Russian forces have destroyed multiple bridges and likely laid mines to slow and delay advancing Ukrainian forces.
“The loss of Kherson’s west bank will likely prevent Russia from achieving its strategic aspiration of a land bridge reaching Odesa.
“With limited crossing points, Russian forces will be vulnerable in crossing the Dnipro River. It is likely that the withdrawal will take place over several days with defensive positions and artillery fires covering withdrawing forces.”
Britain, the US, Ukraine and their allies are fighting an information war against Russia so their briefings need to be treated with caution but are far more believable than the propaganda issued by the Kremlin.
The Washington-based think tank, The Institute for the Study of War, tweeted: “The #Ukrainian counteroffensive in the #Kherson direction—a coordinated interdiction campaign to force #Russian forces to withdraw across the #Dnipro without necessitating major Ukrainian ground offensives—has likely succeeded.”
The ISW added: “The Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the #Dnipro is unlikely to be a trap meant to lure Ukrainian troops into costly combat near #Kherson City, as some Ukrainian and Western sources have suggested.”
However, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said the announcement of the Russian retreat should be treated with caution.
In a Wednesday night address, he stressed that Ukrainian forces were strengthening their positions "step by step" in the south, mentioning Kherson just once, and warned that "the enemy will make no gifts to us”.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an adviser to Mr Zelensky, said in a video posted online."They (Russian troops) are moving out but not as much as would be taking place if it was a full pull-out or regrouping,"
He stressed that Russian forces were destroying bridges as they left and mining roads.
"For the moment, we don't know their intentions - will they engage in fighting with us and will they try to hold the city of Kherson? They are moving very slowly," he added.
Kherson city was the only regional capital Russia captured after the invasion and it has been the focus of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive, with another one launched in the north east of the country.
The city controls the only land route to the Crimea peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014 and the mouth of the Dnipro river that bisects Ukraine.
Russian-installed officials have been evacuating tens of thousands of civilians from Kherson in recent weeks.
Ukrainian military analyst Yuri Butusov said the Ukrainian army's use of US-supplied high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) had made Dnipro river crossings so dangerous that "the defence of Russian positions here has become impossible".
"But let's be clear. The Russian forces will take up defensive positions and it will be able to carry out new attacks. It will be able to maintain its positions on the east bank for a time," Mr Butusiov said in a YouTube video.
Meanwhile, America's top general estimated that Russia's military had suffered more than 100,000 of its soldiers killed or wounded, and added Kyiv's armed forces "probably" suffered a similar level of casualties.
About 40,000 Ukrainian civilians had also probably been killed since Mr Putin launched his invasion, he said.
General Mark Milley, speaking to the Economic Club in New York, did not say how he calculated those estimates.
Gen Milley said initial indicators suggested Russia was following through with its withdrawal from Kherson. But he cautioned that it could take time to complete.
In televised comments, Russian General Sergei Surovikin, in overall command of the war, reported to Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu that it was no longer possible to supply Kherson city. He said he proposed to take up defensive lines on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River.
Shoigu told Surovikin: "I agree with your conclusions and proposals. For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen is always a priority. We must also take into account the threats to the civilian population.
"Proceed with the withdrawal of troops and take all measures to ensure the safe transfer of personnel, weapons and equipment across the Dnipro River."
US President Joe Biden said Moscow's order to withdraw from Kherson showed there were "some real problems with the Russian military”.
A regular evening statement by the Ukrainian military on Wednesday made no direct reference to Kherson region or its capital.
Russian forces shelled more than 25 towns and villages on the southern front, it said.
Ukrainian legislator David Arakhamia, who led Kyiv's delegation to peace talks early in Russia's invasion, said however, that a military operation in the Kherson region was under way.
He described the Russians' situation as critical and said, "Sooner or later, they will either leave Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk and Sevastopol (in Crimea) or be destroyed."
But the Ukrainians may face numerous booby traps in Kherson and could be targeted by intense Russian artillery barrages.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg welcomed the news on Kherson but also warned that "Russia can still inflict a lot of damage."
Compounding the sense of Russian disarray in Kherson, Moscow's number two official there, Kirill Stremousov, was killed on Wednesday in what Moscow said was a car crash.
Russia's leading war hawks on Wednesday endorsed the decision to abandon Kherson city, putting a brave face on one of Moscow's most humiliating retreats.
"After weighing all the pros and cons, General Surovikin made the difficult but right choice between senseless sacrifices for the sake of loud statements and saving the priceless lives of soldiers," said Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader who has frequently urged a more aggressive approach to the war.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Russia's decision to withdraw troops from near Kherson was a positive step.
Mr Erdogan was responding to a question about prospects of talks between Moscow and Kyiv at a news conference before departing on a visit to Uzbekistan for a Turkic states summit.
