Vladimir Putin’s military industry is “falling short” of producing enough weapons and ammunition for his Ukraine war, British defence chiefs said on Wednesday.
They believe that Russian leaders know that their country’s military industrial output is turning into a “critical weakness” just as Putin prepares to launch a spring offensive in Ukraine.
They highlighted that Deputy Security Council Chairman Dmitry Medvedev called on February 9 for an increase in Russian tank production while visiting the Omsk Transport Machine Construction plant.
They also stressed that in a televised meeting on January 12, Putin “castigated” Denis Manturov, the Deputy Prime Minister with responsibility for the defence industry, for ‘fooling around’.
They described this as one of the president’s “strongest public outbursts since the invasion”.
In its latest intelligence update, the Ministry of Defence in London said: “Senior Russian leaders are likely aware that the state’s military industrial output is becoming a critical weakness, exacerbated by the strategic and operational miscalculation of invading Ukraine.
“Production is almost certainly falling short of the Russian MoD’s demands to resource the Ukraine campaign and restore its longer-term defence requirements.”
However, European military leaders have admitted that the West is failing to produce sufficient ammunition to meet the demands of Kyiv’s armed forces.
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky is also pleading for supplies of tanks, long-range artillery, fighter jets and other heavy weapons to be delivered more quickly from Nato countries backing Kyiv’s fight against the Russian invasion.
Britain, the US, Ukraine and other allies are fighting an information war against Russia so their briefings need to be treated with caution, so the highlighting of Russia’s munitions shortages should be considered in that context.
However, their updates are far more reliable than the propaganda issued by the Kremlin, including that civilian areas have not been targeted by Russian shelling and air strikes, despite more than 40,000 civilians reported to have been killed since Putin’s war was launched nearly a year ago.
Ukraine again urged allies on Wednesday to speed up the pace of military aid as NATO defence ministers prepared to meet for a second day of talks, while Russia said its troops had broken through two fortified lines of Ukrainian defences on the eastern front.
The Russian Defence Ministry said the Ukrainians had retreated in the face of Russian attacks in the Luhansk province, although it provided no details and the claims could not be independently verified.
“During the offensive ... the Ukrainian troops randomly retreated to a distance of up to 3 km (1.9 miles) from the previously occupied lines,” the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.
“Even the more fortified second line of defence of the enemy could not hold the breakthrough of the Russian military.”
The Kremlin has intensified attacks across a swathe of southern and eastern Ukraine in recent weeks, and a major new offensive has been widely anticipated.
Russia’s main effort has been focused on the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk province adjacent to Luhansk.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces did not mention any significant setbacks in Luhansk in its morning update on Wednesday.
It said Ukrainian units had repelled attacks in the areas of more than 20 settlements, including Bakhmut as well as Vuhledar - a town 150 km (90 miles) southwest of Bakhmut.
Mr Zelensky on Tuesday said Russia was in a hurry to achieve as much as it can with its latest push before Ukraine and its allies gather strength.
“That is why speed is of the essence,” he said as NATO defence chiefs met in Brussels.
“Speed in everything - adopting decisions, carrying out decisions, shipping supplies, training. Speed saves people’s lives.”
Bakhmut’s capture would provide a stepping stone for Russia to advance on two bigger cities, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk, giving it momentum after months of setbacks.
“The situation on the front line, especially in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, remains very difficult. The battles are literally for every foot of Ukrainian land,” Mr Zelensky said in his evening address on Tuesday.
Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov said there was fighting “around every single house” in Bakhmut.
“The situation remains extremely difficult, but under control of our forces and the front line has not moved,” he said in a YouTube video.
Ukraine is using shells faster than the West can make them and says it needs fighter jets and long-range missiles to counter the Russian offensive and recapture lost territory.
The United States and NATO have pledged that Western support will not falter in the face of a looming Russian offensive.
U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin said he expected Ukraine to launch its own offensive in the spring.
“Ukraine has urgent requirements to help it meet this crucial moment in the course of the war. We believe there’ll be a window of opportunity for them to exercise initiative,” he said.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said supplying Ukraine with fighter jets would certainly be discussed but that it was not a focus at the moment.
Other Nato allies are stepping up the production of munitions for Kyiv.
