Now that Brittney Griner’s situation has captured our collective attention, Russian experts across the pond have a stark warning to add. Their realistic view of what Vladimir Putin is capable of is enough to compel Westerners to tuck their passports away for a good long while.
“The Russian leader delights in Cold War-style trades; expect more Westerners to be arrested as he forms a ‘bank’ of people for future prisoner exchanges,” says Irina Borogan and Andrei Soldatov, senior fellows with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).
“Vladimir Putin is an old hand at this game and he will certainly demand a much higher price from the Americans,” said the investigative journalists and co-founders of Agentura.ru - a watchdog of Russian secret service activities. Needless to say, neither of the two colleagues resides in their Russian homeland.
Referring to what they called the most "sensitive swap between the two countries for more than a decade" - the infamous Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout and Vadim Krasikov (in prison for murdering a Chechen warlord in Berlin in broad daylight in 2019), in exchange for WNBA superstar Brittney Griner and former US Marine Paul Whelan. This is the so-called "two-for-two" prisoner swap New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson recently discussed on ABC's "This Week."
“It is now something of a cliché that Putin is obsessed with imitating the grand style of the Cold War, including the swaps. The most quoted example is the 2010 exchange, when 10 Russian undercover agents,” including the redheaded [double agent-turned model and Trump cheerleader] Anna Vasilyevna Chapman, were exchanged for Russian spies who embedded themselves in American society while leading double lives...as in FX's "The Americans."
The Guardian referred to it as “the biggest and least secret spy swap in decades” and a “face-saving handover” for the U.S.
The CEPA analysts agreed. “The way Putin played the game was seen by many in Moscow as proof that Vladimir Putin had become the master, indeed possessed truly unrivaled skills, in the trading of human beings.”
Bridge Of Spies
The Glienicke Bridge, used to exchange high-ranking spies between the Eastern and Western powers, was portrayed in Steven Spielberg’s "Bridge of Spies" starring Tom Hanks. (Photo: Billelar.dk)
Putin was routinely involved in the murky process of swaps and ransom payments for hostages taken by Chechen separatists during that conflict and now he's at it with Ukraine and the United States.
Dangerously Fickle
“Putin is not purely a student of Cold War operations. He has also learned lessons during his 22 years in power when he accumulated his own history of swaps. Ultimately, he developed his own strategy and style with one signature element — always change the terms of the agreement.”
Let us hope that Putin's mood holds steady for long enough to swap not just Griner and Whelan but the others who linger in Russian prisons.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons and Atlantic Council
