CHARLOTTE, N.C. — The Carolina Panthers are one of several teams who have been linked to Derek Carr since the Las Vegas Raiders cut him two weeks ago. Carolina opened as the betting favorite to land Carr. However, those odds shifted when Carr visited both the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints during the past few weeks. Early Tuesday, NFL Network’s Ian Rapport reported that the Panthers are one of three teams scheduled to meet with Carr at the scouting combine in Indianapolis
Like it or not, Panthers fans, it’s time to address whether Carr and Carolina are a logical paring or if he’s just another veteran retread the Panthers should avoid.
PROS OF SIGNING DEREK CARR
Frank Reich and Jim Caldwell have proven they improve QB play
Panthers owner David Tepper paid for an all-star coaching staff this offseason to first stabilize and then cultivate Carolina’s quarterback situation.
Reich is surrounded by coaches with proven NFL quarterback success. Senior assistant Jim Caldwell led top-10 scoring offenses with the Colts (Peyton Manning), Ravens (Joe Flacco), and Lions (Matthew Stafford). Reich’s Super Bowl-winning success in 2017 with Carson Wentz and Nick Foles catapulted him to head coach status.
Caldwell, Reich, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown would take a collaborative process in building Carr back up. Carr, who will be 32 in March, was cut by the Raiders after nine seasons as the face of a dysfunctional franchise.
He left the Raiders as the franchise’s all-time passing leader with 35,222 yards. The quarterback had two winning seasons, posting a 63-79 record as a starter. However, Carr played for six head coaches, endured horrible draft classes, and only twice had a top-20 defense.
Carr lasted just one season under new Raiders coach Josh McDaniels. The breakup was ugly. Both sides leaked information blaming the other for why things soured. Carr has been labeled a soft quarterback, who did not take enough ownership of his mistakes in close losses. Reports also said Carr played poorly in cold weather and was unwilling to take the hits necessary to make winning throws.
Carr’s game film from last season (and his cold weather stats) support some of those assertions. However, Carr is just in need of a coaching staff that will offer schemes to play to his strengths and empowers his vision.
Bottom line: If Tepper and general manager Scott Fitterer want Carr, Reich and Caldwell are an ideal fit.
Carr fits Reich’s offensive philosophies
At his introductory press conference, Reich said he wants to bring a multiple offense to Carolina, capable of running the football, throwing explosively and not turning it over. At his best, Carr can execute those core principles.
He proved that under Jon Gruden, running West Coast philosophies predicated on quick, timing-based throws that are designed to stretch the field horizontally.
As with Gruden, slants, quick outs, spot routes, crossers and level concepts were a stable of Reich’s Colts offenses. Reich wants his quarterback to get the ball out quickly. Think of it as throwing jabs before hitting a defense with the knockout blow.
Carr thrives at throwing short, high-percentage passes that get the ball out fast. As his confidence builds, the deep throws are naturally more accurate. Film studies suggest he even gains the grit to stand in the pocket and throw intermediate passes if he’s in a rhythm.
In a perfect scenario with Reich and the Panthers’ collection of weapons, Carr’s ceiling projects as 2016 Matt Ryan, who was named the league’s MVP that season.
But football is rarely a perfect script. Carr has limitations littered throughout his game film. Data via Pro Football Focus suggests he struggles throwing to his left, especially deep. Defenses understand those tendencies and scheme appropriately.
Carr has inexplicable stretches where he does not see the field well. He’ll hurry reads and settle for check downs. He’s even notoriously thrown the ball away on multiple fourth-down plays over his career.
Reich and Carr are a football match but it’s unclear if the quarterback is talented enough to maximize the Panthers’ offense.
He’s a proven veteran who lacks growing pains
Few realities are scarier in pro football than not having a proven quarterback.
Signing Carr would immediately eliminate that fear. His body of work (when not reviewed with a fine-tooth comb) is a model of consistency. Carr has missed only two games due to injury in his career. Statistically, Carr had three seasons with 4,000 passing yards and 10 or fewer interceptions. That’s only been done by three other quarterbacks: Aaron Rodgers (nine times), Tom Brady (seven times) and Peyton Manning (four times).
The Panthers have pieces around Carr to support him. The offensive line is proven. Receiver D.J. Moore is an established playmaker. And, Fitterer already hinted at adding “sexy” pieces to the team this year via the draft, applying more tight ends and receivers are inbound.
Game film shows Carr is an expert at the line of scrimmage. He’s savvy at identifying coverages and routinely knows how to dice man-coverage. He’s also capable of uplifting an offensive line by putting it in ideal protection calls.
Overall, the Panthers’ offense would likely be a top-15 unit or better with Carr.
CONS OF SIGNING DEREK CARR
Raiders never got over the hump with Carr
Carr has only played in two playoff games in nine seasons. Both were wild-card round losses where the Raiders failed to score more than 20 points. Carr supporters blame a messy Raiders organization for not uplifting its quarterback.
He’s also encountered unprecedented situations. He played his best football under Gruden, the franchise’s former head coach. A 21-game stretch from 2020-21 abruptly ended following reports that emails Gruden wrote over a 10-year period included racist, misogynistic and anti-gay language. A month later, former Raiders receiver Henry Ruggs was in a car crash that left a woman and her dog dead which led to multiple felony charges. Ruggs was released from the team about two weeks after Gruden stepped down.
Somehow, Carr still led the Raiders to the playoffs that season.
But so often winning at the pro football level is built on consistency and continuity. On the field, what Gruden was building with Carr was working — but due to circumstances out of his control, Carr never got to build upon that foundation. Everything before and after Gruden was equally short-lived.
Perhaps a blue-chip quarterback (like Carr believes he is) is supposed to overcome all that. If that’s true then Carr should’ve won more. Or maybe he never pushed the Raiders over the hump because the franchise cannot overcome itself.
Accurately diagnosing why Carr and the Raiders never maximized their potential together is what an NFL team must decide when weighing whether or not to sign the quarterback.
Is Carr interested in being a bridge QB?
Franchise quarterback is a position the Panthers have not satisfied since the team cut Cam Newton three offseasons ago. Dart-throw misses on Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield cost the team’s previous head coach his job.
The Panthers tried and failed for veteran stars like Stafford in 2021, and Deshaun Watson last year. Do the Panthers want to keep trying with veteran quarterbacks? In November, the Charlotte Observer reported Tepper wants to build with a quarterback on a rookie contract and has had eyes for Kentucky’s Will Levis.
Since Carr is a free agent, the team could sign him while protecting its draft capital, unaffecting the ability to move up for a first-round quarterback. But is Carr interested or even willing to take on an Alex Smith-like role?
In his farewell to Raiders fans, Carr posted “That fire burning inside of me to win a championship still rages.”
Carr sounds like a quarterback with a long-term plan of again being the face of a franchise. In many ways, his demeanor, intangibles, and leadership are his strongest quarterbacking qualities. His former teammates, from Amari Cooper to Davante Adams, rave about him. No report has suggested that he lost the Raiders’ locker room.
Committing to Carr could stifle the leadership development of a rookie quarterback. It’s also not wise to waste years of a cheap rookie contract like the Packers did with Jordan Love thanks to Aaron Rodgers.
Carr brings instant credibility and stability to an offense but Carolina would risk landing in Kirk Cousins-esque purgatory with no viable off-ramp of producing a top-five quarterback.
He’s expensive compared to other veterans
Like most partnerships in the NFL, this is going to come down to money.
Recently, ESPN’s Dianna Russini reported Carr wants a contract with an average value of $35 million per year. There are a lot of ways to satisfy that request. A team could wisely sign Carr to a multiple-year deal with an AAV (average annual value) near $35 million but the contract would be low in hard guarantees and cash flow.
Those specifics would be up to Panthers vice president of football administration and salary cap guru Samir Suleiman to finesse.
Regardless, Carr is an expensive option when compared to veterans like Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton or even the recently released Carson Wentz. Spotrac projects both Brissett and Dalton to command a one-year deals worth about $5.5 million.
The Panthers have some expensive paydays looming. Brian Burns will command a top-of-market contract soon. Derrick Brown is eligible for a similar extension. Jaycee Horn is only a year away from extension eligibility and receiver Moore’s three-year, $61. 8 million extension kicks in this year.
Carolina could find ways to manipulate the cap to fit Carr while retaining other star players. But accurately determining his value is the point of the exercise.
