Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence became the latest signal-caller to ink a massive, agreeing to a five-year deal worth $275 million, including $200 million guaranteed.
The contract matched Cicinnati’s Joe Burrow’s extension for second-highest in total value, trailing only Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes’ 10-year, $450 million deal. Since the two-time league MVP agreed to his record-breaking deal, the average per-year salary for top-flight quarterbacks has increased by 22%.
With Lawrence locked up, the market price moves again before the 2024 season. And as more quarterbacks work out future extensions, sights turn to the Houston Texans and a potential long-term deal for Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud.
A deal isn’t imminent. Stroud still has three years remaining on his rookie contract, plus a fifth-year option that could be picked up after the 2025 season. The financial commitment makes Stroud one of the league’s best bargains, and it’s why Houston has aggressively upgraded its to maximize its Super Bowl window entering Year 2 of the DeMeco Ryans’ era.
If anyone asks me, I’m predicting @Tua signs a 5 year, $275M with $225 guaranteed.
Sticker shock for some but by the time that contract is over, CJ Stroud will be making $70M per year in Houston. pic.twitter.com/xxEFtLAjsH
— CJ 💫 (@despondito) June 15, 2024
However, Houston will eventually have to make Stroud one of the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks should he only build off one of the greatest rookie seasons in league history.
But what will that contract untimely be in annual salary and guarantees given the market value?
This exercise only explores players signing their second contracts, so while Dak Presscot’s potential (clears throat) $60 million annual salary was considered, it’s not included. In total, nine quarterbacks’ second contracts were used. Green Bay’s one-year extension with Jordan Love was also excluded since it was mainly used to avoid picking the fifth-year option on a first-year starter.
Those players are:
- Patrick Mahomes (2020)
- Dak Prescott (2021)
- Josh Allen (2021)
- Kyler Murray (2022)
- Justin Herbert (2023)
- Lamar Jackson (2023),
- Jalen Hurts (2023),
- Joe Burrow (2023)
- Trevor Lawrence (2024)
The per-year cost increase previously mentioned is due to the rising salary cap total, which made the grandest single-season increase since 1994 by adding $30.6 million to the team’s pocket this past offseason.
With the NFL continually exploring avenues for revenue, such as a two-game broadcast contract on Christmas with Netflix, the league’s salary cap will expand.
Texans. Ravens. CHRISTMAS DAY only on Netflix 🎄
Get back going to be crazy.
(Via @Schultz_Report) pic.twitter.com/QhNSjOt8du
— Nick Schwager (@NickSchwagerNFL) May 15, 2024
So, while the per-year cost is rising, the percentage against a team’s salary cap at the signing has not significantly jumped. For instance, Burrow and Lawrence’s contracts are nearly identical, aside from Burrow being guaranteed $19 million more, yet Burrow’s percentage of the Bengals’ cap space was 24.47% at the signing compared to Lawrence accounting for 21.93% of the Jaguars cap.
When Deshaun Watson signed his five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed deal with the Brown in 2022, it sent a seismic change to the market as more quarterbacks sought higher guaranteed totals. Mahomes’ contract in 2020 included a guaranteed money percentage of 31.4%, and Allen’s six-year, $258 million contract a year later garnered him 58.1% of guaranteed money.
One more look from yesterday at the #Browns’ trade for Deshaun Watson and his new $230 million fully guaranteed contract, of which one team executive said this morning: “They just changed the whole landscape of economics of the NFL.” @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/j3aumSYMGN
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 19, 2022
Since Watson’s signing, no quarterback that’s signed their second contract has had a percentage of guaranteed money under 69%. Murray, who signed the same year, is the lowest at 69.3%. Herbert’s 2023 five-year deal worth $262.5 million peaked at 83.3%.
The average percentage of guaranteed money among the six quarterbacks to sign since Watson is 74.1%.
Spotrac estimates each team’s salary cap to be $334.8 million in 2028, a $79.4 million jump or a 31.1% increase. The last four years saw a $57.2 million increase or 28.8% leap.
Stroud, who became the youngest quarterback since Mark Sanchez (2009) to win a playoff game, figures to crack the top five in percentage against Houston’s salary cap. The average among the current top five is 23.44%. Most quarterbacks sign five-year deals to give themselves another crack at free agency, and Stroud will likely do the same.
With the parameters of a five-year extension, a 23.44% hit against the team’s salary cap at signing and 74.1% of guaranteed money, Stroud’s projected extension would be worth $392.5 million, which includes $290.8 million guaranteed.
And as for annual salary, Stroud would earn $78.5 million. Welcome to the future NFL.
The good news? That’s four years away, so Houston can relax knowing Stroud still has one of the best contracts in the league.
The bad news? This is all a projection based on current numbers. We’re one unearthly contract away from this reaching astronomical heights and making this scenario illogical.
