Pascal Lamy, a 77-year-old "globalist" Frenchman who has staked his decades-long career on the idea that more Europe is always better than less, has told FRANCE 24 he's hopeful that the solid gains by hard-right and Eurosceptic parties in the EU elections will spur Europe's 500 million citizens to build more bridges. Speaking to Douglas Herbert, Lamy also discussed the new political landscape in his native France, following President Emmanuel Macron's shock decision to call snap elections. He predicted that the most likely outcome is that France will have "an extreme-right government sometime in July".
Lamy, a former two-term head of the World Trade Organization who was once ranked in the top 50 of the world's leading thinkers by the British magazine Prospect, built his reputation as a champion of pro-European causes during the nine years he served as chief of staff to European Commission President Jacques Delors, from 1985 to 1994.
Lamy told FRANCE 24 that the rise in voter turnout in these European elections from five years ago, though slight – 51 percent, up from 50.6 percent in 2019 – suggested that people cared more, not less, about Europe "due to the fact that the world has become a terrible place for many people".
In an opinion piece for The New York Times that he wrote in 2012, when Greece was at the centre of Europe’s debt crisis, and many saw the EU as teetering on the brink, Lamy wrote that "the European stage must be lit up for the European project to advance".
Caught between Putin, Xi and Trump
Lamy said the European stage is "lit up" today in a way that could galvanise Europe's citizens as they face a difficult geopolitical map.
"If you're caught between [Vladimir] Putin, Xi Jinping and, possibly, [Donald] Trump, then the notion that you should coalesce, get your act together, is much more obvious than in normal, peaceful times. Fortunately, this is where we are and this is the reason why I believe with EU integration, there is probably more to come." He added: "Hopefully, although I am not sure."
Lamy echoed the view of political analysts who said a far-right earthquake had not come to pass, with centrist parties holding their ground perhaps enough to prevent extreme parties from blocking key legislation on issues ranging from climate to migration to trade.
"There was some push to the right, but this push was contained," Lamy said. "So, yes, we will have a slightly more right-wing European Parliament, although what really matters in a parliamentary system with a large variety of parties is whether the government, that is to say, the Commission [which proposes and enforces laws and implements the EU budget], can rely on a stable majority."
The French exception
Asked about the far-right's especially strong performance in his native France, where the National Rally party led by Jordan Bardella trounced President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance party 31.5 percent to 14.6 percent, Lamy attributed the rout to the quirks of the French political system.
Shortly after the result, Macron shocked the country, including many of his own close allies, by dissolving parliament and calling snap national elections, to be held in two stages on June 30 and July 7.
"We have a presidential system which is very different from others in the European Union," Lamy said. "So we have a sort of European election that looks like a [US-style] midterm election … It was an anti-Macron result."
He predicted that the most likely outcome will be that France has "an extreme-right government sometime in July".
Some political observers have called Macron's dissolution move a dangerous rolling of the dice, with some likening it to former British prime minister David Cameron's decision to hold a Brexit referendum that he probably never believed had a chance of passing.
Macron's motives
But the debate over Macron's motives is far from clear-cut.
Was he calculating that the French, after using the European election vote to blow off steam and vent their anger at Macron, as some have suggested, would behave differently when they head to the ballot box in France, knowing that the far right could be on the brink of power in their own country?
Put differently, was Macron betting that his compatriots would not vote at home the way they did in Europe?
Lamy suggested another explanation for Macron's actions, one that has more to do with what happens when his current – and final – term in office ends in 2027.
"He knows that for the next three years to come he is a sort of lame duck. No majority in parliament, muddling through, and that leads to a likely scenario where [National Rally standard bearer] Marine Le Pen and the extreme right will become president. His calculation may be, 'Let's have them in government and show that they don't do what they said they would do, like most populist movements. And then when 2027 comes, people will be able to see the difference between a populist party that pretends it will do miracles, and the reality in government.'"
