Foreign investors hold an optimistic view of Thailand's stock market this year thanks to the country's economic recovery, driven by the tourism sector and China's reopening, says an investment analyst.
Lombard Odier, a Swiss private bank specialising in wealth management, said foreign investors are optimistic about the country's stock market as well as other Asian and emerging markets.
The bank estimates China's GDP growth rate for 2023 at 5-5.5%, with a large contribution coming from the country's reopening, said Stephane Monier, group managing director and chief investment officer at Banque Lombard Odier & CIE SA. He was speaking at a media briefing yesterday held following a seminar hosted by Kasikorn Private Banking.
China's reopening and economic growth should benefit other Asian economies, including Thailand and its tourism sector this year.
Lombard Odier forecasts Thai growth of 4% this year, in line with an estimate of 3.7% made by Kasikorn Research Center. Under this scenario, Thai equities in tourism and related domestic sectors would benefit from these positive factors, according to the bank.
"The Thai economy this year should benefit from higher tourism income and a current account surplus, while the country's manufacturing and export sectors should be affected by the global economic slowdown," said Mr Monier.
Lombard Odier forecasts the global economy will reach a turning point this year, based on a backdrop of easing inflation rates, though inflation still remains at an elevated level worldwide.
Central banks worldwide are expected to continue to increase their policy rates to contain inflation, but the rate hikes should be weaker than last year, he said.
Mr Monier said Lombard Odier believes the US economy could possibly enter a mild recession this year, or have a "soft landing".
The bank expects European economies to face continued challenges related to energy reserves and high rates of inflation, though such obstacles have been improving this year when compared with 2022.
Lombard Odier plans to underweight the investment portfolios of its customers investing in US and European equities.
The company wants to overweight equity investments outside the Western economies. Asia, China, India and emerging markets are in the company's spotlight this year, he said.
Mr Monier said Lombard Odier also plans to overweight fixed income, focusing on US treasuries and investment-grade corporate bonds under a quality asset class and diversification strategy.
The company also expects to overweight gold.
