It’s been a long time (two weeks to be exact). I shouldn’t have left you, left you…without a few picks to step to.
After going 4-2 for a second straight week in Week 9, I took Week 10 off. But we’re back and ready to keep this record trending in the right direction after a rough start to the season.
The theme for Week 11 is “go low”, because I’m hammering unders on four of my six picks. That includes me going back to the Mac Jones passing yards under that’s been so generous to me — hopefully you’ve been tailing. Let’s get into this pick-six.
Week 9: 4-2
2022 record: 21-32
1
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: Under 26.5 receiving yards (vs. Detroit Lions)
As capable a receiver as Barkley is, he’s not as involved in the Giants passing game as you may think. He hasn’t caught for more than 25 yards in any of their last four games, and he only had one reception last week.
2
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos: Over 9.5 receiving yards (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
I know Gordon’s role in this offense isn’t what it once was, but all he has to do is get 10 receiving yards for this prop to hit. He can do that in one catch, and he’s averaging about five targets in the last three games.
3
Mac Jones, New England Patriots: Under 203.5 passing yards (vs. New York Jets)
The Patriots may be winning more lately, but it’s not because of anything they’re getting at the quarterback position. Jones hasn’t thrown for 200 yards since September, and I don’t expect that to change against a tough Jets defense.
4
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears: Over 28.5 receiving yards (at Atlanta Falcons)
It sounds like the Bears want to dial back the called runs for Justin Fields, which could mean more traditional pass plays. That could open up more targets for Kmet, who already averages 27 yards in a conservative offense and has eclipsed 28 in the last two games.
5
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 214.5 passing yards (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Pickett has been held under 200 yards two straight games and three of his last four. And though Pickett is a very different player, Mitchell Trubisky was held under 200 yards by Cincy in a season opener that went to overtime.
6
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts: Under 60.5 receiving yards (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Target volume isn’t the issue for Pittman, but he hasn’t eclipsed 60 yards in four straight games after doing so in three of his first five games. A meeting with the Eagles won’t make it easy.
