I feel like a round of applause is in order, because finally, FINALLY, I put together a winning week.
You knew the vibes were trending in a positive direction when we went .500 in Week 7, and sure enough the trend continued with a 4-2 record last week. Now we turn to Week 9, hoping the momentum continues.
The theme this week is QB unders. I have three of them from my pick-six, and oddly enough, Justin Fields, who is a part of my six and averages the NFL’s fewest passing yards per game among starters, isn’t one of them. Let’s get into it.
Week 8: 4-2
2022 record: 17-30
1
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Over 42.5 rushing yards at New York Jets
This line feels high until you realize Allen has eclipsed it in more than half his games this year. And New York’s surprisingly stingy defense is more than capable of getting him on the move.
2
Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals: Over 38.5 receiving yards vs. Seattle Seahawks
Why would I pick Ertz from a team with so many other weapons? Because he’s eclipsed this line in five of eight games this season and the Seahawks allow the most receiving yards to tight ends in the NFL.
3
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears: Over 173.5 passing yards vs. Miami Dolphins
This line was way too small for me to pass on. Fields had crossed this threshold in four straight games prior to last week’s against a tough Dallas secondary. Miami’s defense isn’t nearly as good, and Chicago welcomes Chase Claypool into the offense.
4
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions: Under 251.5 passing yards vs. Green Bay Packers
It didn’t work in my favor the last time I picked against Jared Goff, but this is a game tailor-made for the returning D’Andre Swift to go off and allow Goff to play game manager.
5
Mac Jones, New England Patriots: Under 214.5 passing yards vs. Indianapolis Colts
I considered the opposing quarterback here too. But Sam Ehlinger’s line was smaller against a worse defense — even if it is coached by Bill Belichick. I think New England will find enough success on the ground to not have to rely on Jones much.
6
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Under 267.5 passing yards at Chicago Bears
Similar to the other quarterback unders on the list, this pick stems from my belief in Miami’s ability to run this game. As long as Chicago can limit the splash plays Miami is so capable of — they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest yards to receivers this year — Tagovailoa’s under is a good bet.
