In a completely unpredictable Week 18 where teams were bound to rest starters in preparation for the playoffs and unders were right there for the taking, I went with the bold strategy of picking five overs as part of my weekly pick-six.
Yeah, that didn’t work out well.
Thankfully, the playoffs are here this weekend, and barring injuries, we can count on the best players being on the field. So, guess what? I’m doubling down on overs with a pick-six full of ’em!
Each of these players also work well as anytime touchdown scorers, if you ask me. So have a little fun if you dare.
Week 18: 2-4
2022 record: 43-52
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Over 44.5 receiving yards vs. Seattle Seahawks
I fully expect San Francisco to have its way with Seattle on Saturday, but Kittle especially should have a good game against a defense that allowed the second-most yardage to tight ends during the regular season. He himself did some of that damage, catching five passes for 93 yards and two touchdowns against the Hawks last month.
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: Over 38.5 receiving yards vs. Seattle Seahawks
Did I mention I was expecting the Niners to have their way? Seattle’s defensive weakness is actually the run, which plays to San Fran’s strength. But the Niners utilize several ball-carries, making it hard to pin down one rushing prop. However, when they do pass, McCaffrey is an easy dump off option for the young Brock Purdy. The dynamic back was targeted eight times in the teams’ last meeting.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills: Over 35.5 receiving yards vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins allowed nearly 1,000 yards of offense to tight ends this season, which ranks 25th in the NFL, but it’s actually Knox’s recent play that gives me the most confidence in this prop. He’s come alive down the stretch of the season, eclipsing this number in three of his last four games, including 98 yards against the Fins in December. He also has a touchdown in four straight games.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants: Over 22.5 receiving yards at Minnesota Vikings
I went 1-1 betting on Barkley’s receiving yards under during the regular season, but I don’t see another win for that market this week. Even after Daniel Jones shredded them a few weeks ago, the Vikings are going to challenge him to beat them, and I think he will. Barkley will be a part of that. He caught eight of 10 targets for 49 yards that previous game.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals: Over 78.5 receiving yards vs. Baltimore Ravens
Chase absolutely wrecks the Ravens when these teams play and hasn’t had fewer than 10 targets in any of his four career games against them. Last week, he caught eight of 13 targets for 86 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore, and I fully expect Joe Burrow to go back to him early and often. Especially with how well Baltimore has been playing the run lately.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 65.5 receiving yards vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is a risky pick considering how ineffective Tom Brady has been targeting Evans this season. But they finally seemed to find a connection in their season finale, with Evans catching 10 passes for over 200 yards and three touchdowns. I believe that can carry over against the Cowboys, who haven’t been nearly as effective against the pass as they were earlier in the season.
