The divisional round of the playoffs features four games I’m predicting to stay close but could absolutely end in blowouts if things break the right way for the favorites — all of them.
The Chiefs and Eagles have been significantly better than the Jaguars and Giants all season. The 49ers have played head and shoulders above everyone lately. And the Bills were Super Bowl favorites all year.
That unpredictability makes it imperative to nail prop picks that can hit regardless of the way these games break. And I think I have just the picks for that.
Wild Card record: 3-3
Regular season record: 43-52
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 244.5 passing yards (at Kansas City Chiefs)
Even as I believe the Jaguars cover the 9-point spread in this game, I think they’ll have a really hard time with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. That means Lawrence will have to air it out for Jacksonville to keep up, and I believe he’ll have some success doing it and cover 245 yards for a second-straight week.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 70.5 receiving yards (vs. New York Giants)
The Giants held Justin Jefferson in check last week, but they’ll need to worry about two receivers this game. That means one of those Eagles receivers is likely to get off, and past meetings between these teams indicate it’ll be Brown. He’s led the Eagles with at least 70 yards in both games against New York this season.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Over 48.5 rushing yards (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
If there’s a lesson to be learned from Allen’s turnover-filled game against Miami, it’s that he needs to use his legs more. He’s a more effective passer when teams have to also worry about him running, which he hasn’t done much the last couple weeks. I think he’ll get back to that against a tough Bengals team and hit this number for the first time in four games.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Over 13.5 rushing yards (at San Francisco 49ers)
Prescott actually set a playoff record Monday involving rushing touchdowns, which is surprising for someone not considered much of a running quarterback. That’s also why this line is so low, but he’s eclipsed it in five of his last six games, so I think he does it again.
Dak Prescott has at least one Pass and Rush TD in each of his last four playoff games, breaking a tie with Patrick Mahomes and Steve Young for the longest streak in NFL playoff history.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 17, 2023
Deebo Samuel, 49ers: Over 15.5 rushing yards (vs. Cowboys)
As good as Brock Purdy has been for the Niners, I think they’ll want to limit how much he has to do against a Dallas defense that has proven to be tough at times this season. That means they lean on a strong running game, including Christian McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell and of course Samuel. The latter has eclipsed 15 yards twice in his last three games.
Brock Purdy, 49ers: Under 239.5 passing yards (vs. Cowboys)
Speaking of Purdy, if the Niners prove to be successful on the ground, or simply on defense, he won’t have to do much in this game but avoid turnovers. During his run of seven straight wins, he’s only thrown for this many yards twice.
