No trends, no stats, nothing to guide us but the things we believe will carry over from last season.
My player prop picks are back for another NFL season, and I couldn’t feel better about how things will turn out after going 18-12 (9-9 playoffs) after a late start in 2021.
Unofficially, Prince’s Picks 2022 got started Thursday night with a 2-2 record in the opener between the Bills and Rams. Josh Allen and Gabe Davis came through for me, but Allen Robinson and Cam Akers left me feeling like one of their frustrated fantasy managers.
Officially, my slate is clean and we get started with these six picks.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: Under 230.5 passing yards at Detroit Lions
Hurts eclipsed this total just five times last regular season, and he did it just once in the last eight games. I do believe he’ll increase his passing totals in 2022, but that won’t be necessary in the opener against Detroit because the Eagles should be able to run the ball pretty well. That includes Hurts.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: Over 225.5 passing yards at New York Jets
People tend to get it twisted with Lamar Jackson’s throwing ability, which often leads to bad lines like this. Jackson went over 225 passing yards in five straight games to start last season and nine of 11 games total. As long as the Ravens don’t pull away too fast and go into clock-killing mode, this is a lock.
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders: Over 49.5 rushing yards at Los Angeles Chargers
Jacobs hasn’t been held to fewer than 50 yards since Week 14 of last season. As long as Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense don’t blow this game wide open before the Raiders can establish some offensive balance, this number will be an easy target considering how much attention Vegas’ receivers will get.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys: Over 69.5 receiving yards vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In last year’s season opener, Lamb had seven catches for 104 yards, and he didn’t lead the Cowboys in either category. That was Amari Cooper, who had 13 catches for 139 yards — and he isn’t on the team any more. So, yeah Lamb should be getting a few more balls coming his way this time around.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals: Over 69.5 rushing yards vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
For the attention Cincinnati’s passing game will rightfully attract, the running attack with Joe Mixon is still very much a weapon, and Pittsburgh’s run defense was incredibly porous last season. I expect Mixon to have another big game against the Steelers after rushing for more than 250 combined yards in last year’s games.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: Under 231.5 passing yards vs. New England Patriots
Taking this under isn’t an indication that I think Tagovailoa and the Dolphins will fall short of the offseason hype. It’s just that I don’t think he’ll need to pass for this many yards to win. He fell short of this number in both games against New England last year, and the Dolphins still won both games.
