Week 3 was a week of progress for me when it came to making picks against the spread. Unfortunately, the improved picking didn’t carry over to my player prop picks, with just two of those hitting last week.
The two props I nailed were players from teams that lost, which is actually becoming a season-long trend involving four of my five correct picks. The majority of props I’ve missed have been players on winning teams. It’s obviously just a wild coincidence, but so is the fact that most of my picks this week are from teams I expect to lose. So let’s hope that trend lasts another week.
Week 3: 2-4
2022 record: 5-12
1
Browns WR Amari Cooper over 60.5 receiving yards
Jacoby Brissett has targeted Cooper at least 10 times in each of the past two games, as the two continue to grow chemistry together. It’s resulted in over 100 yards in consecutive games for Cooper. They should be able to keep it up against a Falcons defense that’ll be kept off balance by a strong rushing attack.
2
Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette under 66.5 rushing yards
Tampa will want to establish Fournette early, and it’s during that time he’ll have his best chance to eclipse this number. I’m guessing that doesn’t happen, though. And once the Chiefs starting putting some points up, this pitiful offense will abandon the run to try to make up a deficit.
3
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs under 69.5 rushing yards
Jacobs’ season high is exactly 69 yards, and that came on a season-high 19 carries. He just hasn’t been able to find room this season, and Denver’s defense is good enough up front to make that difficult for another week.
4
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill over 219 passing yards
Tannehill has eclipsed 260 yards in two of three games this season. He may not hit that over again, but I think he’ll have to make some plays in order for Tennessee to have a shot, particularly in the fourth quarter with Tennessee potentially trailing on the road to the rival Colts.
5
Commanders QB Carson Wentz under 235.5 passing yards
I saw enough from Dallas’ defense through the first two weeks of the season to know Wentz will struggle here. But what the Cowboys did on Monday against the Giants leaves no doubt. What really tilts this for me, though, is that Dallas won’t necessarily be able to run up the score. So Washington won’t be too pass happy.
6
Titans WR Robert Woods over 48.5 receiving yards
If I think Tannehill is hitting his over, then I have to like one of his receivers to do the same. I actually think Treylon Burks’ line is a good look too. But Woods has garnered the larger target share this season, so I’ll roll with him to get 50 yards.
