A progressive Democrat battling for her political survival tops more than a dozen races to watch Tuesday as Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington hold congressional primaries.
There are primaries for six open House seats, including two where the winner is virtually guaranteed to be in the next Congress, plus a Senate primary for a seat that could decide party control of the chamber. One of the last remaining Republicans in Congress who voted to impeach President Donald Trump also goes before the voters again.
Here’s a rundown of what to watch.
St. Louis showdown
Missouri 1st District: A rancorous Democratic primary between Rep. Cori Bush, a member of the liberal “Squad,” and St. Louis County prosecuting attorney Wesley Bell has drawn $15 million in outside spending through Wednesday.
Though ads against don’t mention it, Bush’s criticism of Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza is a prime driver, with nearly $9 million spent by pro-Israel groups.
Bush has the backing of party leaders, with House Democratic Whip Katherine M. Clark joining her Friday morning to talk about reproductive rights, as well as St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones. Bell, who had five times as much money for the campaign’s final weeks as Bush, was endorsed by the district’s largest newspaper, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Setting Senate matchups
Michigan Senate: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers are their respective parties’ favored candidates for an open seat created by Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s retirement, but they both face primaries.
Slotkin, who had $8.7 million in her account on July 17, faces actor Hill Harper. Rogers, who had $2.5 million and was one of the GOP Senate contenders who got to give speeches at last month’s party convention, faces former Rep. Justin Amash and physician Sherry O’Donnell.
The November race is rated Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
Missouri Senate: Republican Sen. Josh Hawley is unopposed in the primary, but the three Democrats vying to challenge him include 2022 nominee Lucas Kunce, who had $4.2 million to Hawley’s $5.7 million on July 17. That race is rated Solid Republican.
Democratic seats that could flip
Michigan 8th District: Rep. Dan Kildee’s decision to retire leaves an open seat with a race rated Tilt Democratic. Republican Paul Junge, a former deputy district attorney who also worked at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services during the Trump administration, is running again after losing to Kildee by 10 points two years ago. Junge faces Mary Draves, a former executive at Dow Chemical Co., and small business owner Anthony Hudson in the GOP primary.
On the Democratic side, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet is backed by Kildee and other House members. She outraised her opponents, former Flint mayor Matt Collier, and Pamela Pugh, the president of the Michigan State Board of Education. The race is rated Tilt Democratic.
Washington 3rd District: Another seat that’s vulnerable is that of Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, one of five Democrats in a district that backed Donald Trump over Joe Biden in 2020. She goes before voters in an all-party primary in which the Trump supporter she beat in 2022, Joe Kent, is seeking a rematch. In Washington, the two top vote-getters in the primary face off against each other in November regardless of party. Gluesenkamp Perez had $3.8 million in her campaign account to Kent’s $585,000 on July 17. That race is rated Toss-up.
Michigan 7th District: Also a Toss-up is the race for the seat left open by Slotkin’s run for Senate. There’s no drama in the primary: Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett are unopposed. Barrett, a former state senator, lost to Slotkin by 5 points in 2022, and trailed in fundraising.
These primary winners likely DC bound
Republican primaries for two open seats will likely decide the next member or Congress because of the districts’ partisan lean.
Kansas 2nd District: Five Republican candidates jumped into the race after Rep. Jake LaTurner announced in April he wasn’t running. The field includes Trump-backed former state Attorney General Derek Schmidt, attorney and former congressional staffer Jeff Kahrs and rancher Shawn Tiffany. Chad Young, the founder of a nonprofit for at-risk youth, and veteran Michael Ogle are also on the ballot, but had not reported any fundraising to the Federal Election Commission.
The Democratic primary pits Nancy Boyda, who held the seat from 2007 to 2009, against Matt Kleinmann, a community developer who played basketball at the University of Kansas.
Missouri 3rd District: Two former GOP state senators — Bob Onder and Kurt Schaefer — are running in the seven-candidate primary to succeed retiring Rep. Blaine Leutkemeyer. Onder, who has Trump’s endorsement, was a founder of the Missouri Senate Conservative Caucus, the state’s version of the House Freedom Caucus. Schaefer, an attorney, was endorsed by Leutkemeyer. Outside groups have spent more than $7 million on the race, with more than two-thirds of it going to back Schaefer.
Open Washington seats more complicated
Two other open seats in Washington have heavy partisan leanings but the primary won’t necessarily pick the winners because two candidates from the same party could be on the November ballot.
Washington 5th District: There are six Republicans and five Democrats vying for the seat held by retiring Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, where the race rating in November is Solid Republican.
The GOP field includes Michael Baumgartner, a former state senator and the current Spokane County treasurer; state Rep. Jacquelin Maycumber; Brian Dansel, a former state senator who was appointed by the Trump administration as executive director of the Washington USDA Farm Service Agency; and former pastor and Spokane City Council member Jonathan Bingle.
The top fundraiser on the Democratic side is Bernadine Bank, an ob-gyn whose campaign has highlighted women’s health care, who raised $288,000. Former diplomat Carmela Conroy brought in $234,000 and Ann Marie Danimus, the owner of a marketing and business development company, raised $186,000.
Washington 6th District: The November race is rated Solid Democratic for the seat Rep. Derek Kilmer is giving up, and there’s an expensive and bitter contest between Democrats Hilary Franz, the state’s commissioner of public lands, and state Sen. Emily Randall.
Both Democrats have secured high profile endorsements from prominent Democrats: Franz has the backing of Kilmer and former Rep. Norm Dicks and was endorsed by The Seattle Times.
Randall has the support of BOLD PAC, the political arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, as well as Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Equality PAC and Sen. Patty Murray.
Of the two Republicans and one independent vying in the primary, state Sen. Drew C. MacEwen was the only one to report raising any money to the FEC.
Battleground challengers being picked
Kansas 3rd District: Republican voters will determine who will challenge three-term Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids in a race rated Likely Democratic centered on Kansas City.
The National Republican Congressional Committee is backing physician Prasanth Reddy. The group recently added him to its Young Guns program, which provides Republican candidates in competitive races with extra resources.
Reddy, who raised $1.3 million — including an $87,000 candidate loan — must first get past fellow Republican Karen Crnkovich, owner of a HVAC company. Crnkovich raised $156,000.
Michigan 3rd District: Rep. Hillary Scholten, a freshman Democrat, has a primary challenger, but she should be set to advance to the general election. Republicans seeking to challenge her are attorney Paul Hudson and businessman Michael Jay Markey.
Both have put their own money into the race, with Markey loaning or donating $575,000 to his campaign and Hudson loaning his campaign $250,000. An outside group, West Michigan for Change, also spent $698,000 supporting Hudson and opposing Markey. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
Michigan 10th District: Republican Rep. John James won his first term in a closer race than many expected in 2022. Now, his previous opponent, Democrat Carl Marlinga, is hoping for a rematch.
But Marlinga, a former Macomb County prosecutor and judge, is in a four-way Democratic primary. Marlinga has raised the most out of the four Democrats, followed by Diane Young, a financial planner, Emily Busch, a gun safety advocate, and Tiffany Tilley, a member of the state Board of Education. The race is rated Lean Republican.
Washington 8th District: Democratic Rep. Kim Schrier was a GOP target in 2020 and 2022 after flipping a Republican-held seat in 2018. This year, Schrier, a pediatrician, faces three challengers in Tuesday’s all-party primary: Republican Carmen Goers, a commercial banker and volunteer, and Democrats Keith Arnold and Imraan Siddiqi, the executive director of the Washington chapter of the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
Siddiqi has criticized Schrier over the war in Gaza, but the race has not drawn the same level of national attention and outside money as other Democratic contests where candidates were split over Middle East politics. The race is rated Likely Democratic.
Impeachment supporter up
Washington 4th District: Rep. Dan Newhouse was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — and he is one of just two who remain in the chamber.
Newhouse faces two GOP opponents: Jerrold Sessler, a Navy veteran, former NASCAR driver and cancer survivor who has Trump’s endorsement, and Tiffany Smiley, a former nurse who made an unsuccessful run for Senate in 2022.
Newhouse had cash advantage, raising $1.6 million to Smiley’s $720,000 and Sessler’s $409,000. His campaign was boosted by the Defending Main Street super PAC and Clearpath Action Fund, which supports Republican candidates that back nuclear energy, natural gas and carbon capture programs. Democrats Mary Baechler, a community organizer and co-founder of the Baby Jogger Co., and Birdie Jane Muchlinski, a local party official, are also on the all-party primary ballot.
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