LAS VEGAS — Technology sales in the U.S. could reach a record level in 2025, but President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to impose steep tariffs on imports could be a major headwind.
That's the assessment of Brian Comiskey, senior director of innovation and trends at the Consumer Technology Association, the group that produces the annual CES tech conference. Comiskey made his comments at a media briefing late Sunday ahead of the CES 2025 show, which officially opens on Tuesday.
A new forecast from the Consumer Technology Association projects that U.S. tech retail sales of hardware and software could rise 3.2% to $537 billion this year, he said.
But those numbers don't include the potential impact of Trump's threatened tariffs on imports from China and other countries. Trump wants to incentivize companies to build products in the U.S.
But the tariffs, which are basically import taxes, would raise consumer prices on popular goods ranging from smartphones and PCs to televisions and game consoles.
Comiskey said tariffs could reduce annual technology sales in the U.S. by $90 billion to $130 billion.
Without the likely price increases with tariffs, U.S. consumers are poised to upgrade their hardware to take advantage of artificial intelligence advancements, Comiskey said. That includes smartphones, PCs, TVs, smart glasses and even automobiles, he said.
The upgrade cycle isn't just wishful thinking, Comiskey said. "It's not a hype cycle," he said.
CES 2025: Two Game-Changing Technologies
But another technology advancement could have just as big of an impact this decade as AI, he said. And that's GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, such as Wegovy from Novo Nordisk, he said.
He noted that the obesity rate in the U.S. dropped last year because of those drugs.
"AI and GLP-1s are both going to have massive transformation effects," he said.
CES 2025 kicks off with a preshow keynote address from Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang late Monday.
Other keynote speakers at CES 2025 include Ed Bastion, chief executive of Delta Air Lines; Julie Sweet, chief executive of Accenture; Linda Yaccarino, chief executive of X, formerly Twitter; and Tekedra Mawakana, co-CEO of Waymo, the autonomous driving technology unit of Google parent Alphabet.
Follow Patrick Seitz on X, formerly Twitter, at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.
