Sometimes, you have to zig when everyone zags. That’s my big takeaway from Week 1 of the NFL preseason.
The problem is you can just never know when you should zig when everybody else zags. That’s the tricky part. In Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking, the theme is how do some people seem to make the right decisions, specifically when they’re given limited time and limited information. How we process information in our lives, without thinking, helps some to be decisive, gifted decision makers—while some are consistently incompetent.
Is that what makes some people good fantasy players, year in and year out? We can only absorb so much news and information about football and we rely on the snap judgments and opinions of ourselves and others in the media and fantasy community to create some kind of mental tapestry of the game. Which we use to take stock of the full picture. A seemingly infinite number of data points all coming together. And here is another weekend and another opportunity to add to that knowledge, another batch of data points to help you play fantasy football—to think without thinking.
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QB Zach Wilson knee injury
The latest here is that Wilson will require arthroscopic surgery to repair his injured right knee. I’ve read he had a bone bruise and a torn meniscus.
Last year I caught grief on the r/DynastyFF subreddit for pronouncing Wilson a no-go for me. He was somebody I was just not interested in rostering in dynasty leagues anymore from that point. Dynasty is too often about holding a player. It's a rather conservative league format as far as I'm concerned and many players are content to wait-and-see. I don't believe in that. I was recommending ahead of Week 8 of last season that dynasty managers should trade Wilson away while his value was still decent. Since that article's publishing, his value has dropped by about a third on KeepTradeCut. And to my credit, which I'm always happy to give myself, I said the same thing about Justin Fields and his value has also dropped about a third.
While I feel bad for the latest setback in Wilson's career progression... He's not fantasy viable and never will be. He's not a sleeper, a deep sleeper or a long shot. If you're waiting for him to turn it around, stop.
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RB Travis Etienne saw a lot of snaps, touches
ZIG ALERT! I'm zigging hard. Not that long ago, I was on the Travis Etienne hype train. And it looks like the Jaguars are too, by necessity. The second-year back played most all of the snaps in Jacksonville's first three drives. Snoop Conner also played limited snaps and we're still waiting on James Robinson to be back at 100% health. Etienne had nine carries for 23 yards, plus one catch on three targets for 10 yards.
The knock on Etienne has always been his running style, which is like a poor man's Reggie Bush. He too frequently tries to do a little too much instead of taking what's given to him. He's not a downhill runner, like Robinson. He tries to use short-area quickness and cuts to find the open field. This can pay off but it often does not. A home run hitting style of play at running back doesn't fit with what Jacksonville is trying to do. They're not good enough up front to rely on big plays. They need a forward-falling, take-what-you-can-get runner and that is absolutely Robinson.
Luckily for Etienne, volume can provide enough opportunities for fantasy success. Every year there are inefficient backs who do well thanks to plenty of touches. I think that's the best case scenario for Etienne, which I believe limits his top 15 RB potential. When you factor in his skyrocketing ADP with so many touts pushing his sleeper status, which I was just a couple months ago, I think I'll be passing on Etienne this year.
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Week 1 notebook
Deep sleeper alert: Zay Jones is an interesting best ball, late-flier type pick for me. I believe Trevor Lawrence will have a decent year and I'm not sure where all those passes are going to go. Jones makes the most sense and that was reflected in his two catches for 47 yards on four targets.
Jalen Hurts had a nice outing, completing all six of his passes for 80 yards and tossed a TD. They probably practiced those six plays 100 times each during training camp BUT THAT'S OKAY. They gotta nurture their guy. Like the Cardinals letting Kyler Murray call plays on the sideline. You gotta let your big boy feel like a big boy sometimes. Hurts also had a 12-yard TD run called back because of penalty.
George Pickens was my rookie WR1 and I'm going to pound the table for him by mentioning him almost every article I write until he proves me wrong. He finished with three catches on five targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. And the Steelers gave him the big piece of chicken at dinner.
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I'm not really worried about Antonio Gibson, but I would feel more comfortable having Brian Robinson as a handcuff. The big bruising rookie back had six carries for 26 yards and a touchdown.
I honestly don't know if Malik Willis is ever starting a game in the NFL. I know, I'm overflowing with hyperbole today. But what I'm saying is he'll play, if somebody gets hurt. He'll start if Ryan Tannehill gets hurt. But him winning the job? Outright winning the job? I don't know. A lot of young quarterbacks have looked lost to me out there. It is the preseason. This young man has a long way to go. Don't get me wrong: He makes stuff happen on the move. When a play breaks down, he can extend the play. But on a third-and-long, late in a game, when you need a throw from your quarterback... Willis is light years away from taking a five-step drop and making an in-rhythm throw for a completion.
Falcons rookie WR Drake London took in a catch for 24 yards on Atlanta's first drive and then shortly after left the game with a knee injury. It doesn't seem serious and I love London as a WR3/flex on a WR-heavy roster.
Preseason sweetheart rookie WR Romeo Doubs hauled in three passes on seven targets for 45 yards a touchdown. Shawn Childs favorite Amari Rodgers, who he'll write about later this week, also snagged one catch for 22 yards and a touchdown. I believe this WR corps is wide open and these two are the position leaders. They're both basically freebies during your drafts.
I'm hearing a lot of sleeper calls for Tyrion Davis-Price, but Jeff Wilson could be the surprise play this year behind Elijah Mitchell. It makes sense to like TDP after what Mitchell did a year ago. In reality, if all are healthy, this backfield could be more of a hot-hand rotation. Wilson rested this game against the Packers.
